TURBULENT WATERS

The withdrawal of Russia from the grain deal amid the sluggish Ukrainian counteroffensive raises questions about the future of Ukraine and the world in a situation of growing uncertainty. The mutual exchange of strikes on Ukrainian and Russian strategic facilities clearly shows how complex and poorly predictable the situation in the conflict zone remains.

Missiles and the grain deal

Russian missile attacks on the Odessa grain terminal showed the absolute insignificance of previous agreements between Russia, the UN and Ukraine.

In parallel, the Black Sea region is again in grips of military and political tensions seriously threatening the littoral countries. If tensions in the Black Sea basin intensify, they can pave the way for NATO's direct involvement in the conflict. Especially amid active discussions of proposals to organise a military convoy for grain cargo supplies from Ukrainian ports without Russia's participation, exclusively by NATO forces, mainly by Türkiye.

Nevertheless, considering the possible risks, the West is still pinning hopes on Ankara's mediation in renewing the deal. For example, US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken said that he expected Türkiye to play a decisive role in preserving the grain deal.

Apart from the US, the heads of seven African countries, who joined the peace mission on Ukraine, have expressed their readiness to visit the recent St Petersburg summit and have yet another meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin. The first visit to Russian and Ukraine was in June, when they met with the leadership of both countries to discuss the prospects of a ceasefire in Ukraine and the global confrontation, which negatively affects their socio-economic situation, primarily food security.

The termination of the grain deal will have an extremely negative impact on most of these countries. Effects of the pandemic, economic crises, drought and other climatic factors have a negative impact on the global food market anyway. According to the UN FAO report published in July, 45 countries desperately need food supplies. High local prices are causing hunger in most of these countries, including a number of countries in Latin America, Africa and Asia.

While drought may also be a problem for major grain suppliers, analysts believe other countries are producing enough grain to offset any losses from Ukraine. In addition to Russia's huge exports, Europe and Argentina are increasing wheat deliveries, while Brazil had a record year for corn yields. These markets and alternative producers are adapting to new conditions, showing willingness to replace wheat shortages with their products.

Thus, Russian and Ukrainian producers simply risk losing their market share. At the same time, they have limited access to other routes for wheat exports, because the real alternative to the existing sea route, i.e., railway routes, may fail to ensure the growing volume of exports.

According to forecasts, this season is favourable for food wheat in both Russia and Ukraine. In 2023, the grain harvest in Russia is expected to reach 123 million tonnes, including 78 million tonnes of wheat. At the same time, the country's export potential is estimated at 50-55 million, with more than 40 million tonnes in Ukraine. Let alone the residual volume of grain products from the last harvest, which Ukraine has not exported yet. This means that both Russia and Ukraine may face storage problems. Given the agreements with African countries, this stimulates the development of dialogue to resume the grain deal.

Political aspects of the agreement are the main stumbling blocks that prevent the prolongation of the deal. Before it expired, Turkish President Recep T. Erdogan made a statement, in which he agreed with the Russian president to extend the period of the Black Sea exports of Ukrainian grain.

However, the spokesman of the Russian president, Dmitry Peskov, denied Erdogan's statement and said that Russia had not made any statements regarding the deal. After a while Moscow suspended the deal indefinitely.

Remarkably, the grain agreement expired on the same day Ukraine announced strikes on the Kerch Bridge, which has both strategic and symbolic significance for Moscow. Despite Peskov's comments on Russia's decision on the grain deal and the lack of any connection between the strikes and the expiry of the deal, the connection cannot be completely ruled out.

Aid to Ukraine: when bargaining appropriate?

Meanwhile, the issue of aid to Ukraine raised serious tensions. Donald Trump made a loud statement when asked by Fox News Sunday Morning Futures whether he would stop the flow of money to Ukraine if he was elected US president. He said Ukraine should receive more than $100b more in aid from European countries to match the contribution the US has made so far. He complained that Washington's aid to Kiev reaches $150b, while the EU contribution to Ukraine barely reaches $20b.

Apparently, there is no solidarity in Europe regarding the continued support for Ukraine. In mid-July, Bulgarian President Rumen Radev said that the war in Ukraine had economic, social and political dimensions posing a serious threat to the whole of Europe. But Radev put the blame on Ukrainians: "I want to make clear that Ukraine insists on fighting this war. But it should also be clear that the bill is paid by the whole of Europe."

The Ukrainian embassy in Sofia denied Radev's words, saying that Ukraine seeks peace and is making every effort to achieve it. "Blaming Ukraine, which has been treacherously attacked by its northern neighbour, for the ongoing war is one of the widespread arguments to support Russian propaganda and hybrid warfare in Europe," the embassy stated.

Czech President Petr Pavel  indirectly confirmed Radev's words. He believes that the window of opportunity for Ukraine to make military progress will more or less close by the end of this year because of the upcoming presidential elections in the US and other allies of Ukraine. According to Pavel, amid growing European discontent with the rising costs of supporting Ukraine amid worsening socio-economic problems, next year "we will see another decline in the willingness to massively support Ukraine with more weapons".

Contradictions between Kiev and a number of NATO and European politicians have been observed for months, which, however, does not change the conceptual approaches of NATO and EU states to the Ukrainian issue. The latest NATO summit in Vilnius also confirm this thesis.

Russian response to Ukrainian advancement

Ukraine is trying to show the positive impact of the large-scale support. For example, Ukrainian Deputy Defence Minister Anna Malyar said that the Ukrainian army had liberated more than 192 square kilometres of territory during the counter-offensive. Ukrainians also claim active fighting in and around Melitopol and Berdyansk in an attempt to consolidate forces in these important areas.

Meanwhile, Moscow has suffered from a series of drone strikes again. Russian electronic warfare equipment could destroy the drones, with only two hitting two non-residential buildings in the city. One of them was observed close to the Russian Ministry of Defence.

Russian continue attacks on Ukrainian critical infrastructure and focus on shelling the Black Sea territories, including Odessa. As a result of the largest attack during the military campaign, the historic centre of the city was hit. At least 25 architectural monuments were damaged, including buildings of the 19th and early 20th centuries, with the Spaso-Preobrazhensky Cathedral of the Ukrainian Orthodox Church suffering the most serious damage. Unfortunately, the incident resulted in human casualties as well.

Ukrainian terminals Reni and Izmail on the Danube River were also attacked. Given their close proximity to the Ukrainian-Romanian border, or the border between Ukraine and NATO, it poses a serious risk of raising the degree of international tension.

Thus, the Black Sea area becomes increasingly dangerous, while the window of opportunity is shrinking. In these waves of political instability and uncertainty, the ongoing processes seem even more dramatic and indefinite.