IN THE GRIP OF FEAR

"Death to Europeans, death to Americans, death to Westerners! Long live the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan!" This is what the Taliban and their supporters chanted in the streets of Afghan cities on August 15, Afghanistan's Independence Day from American occupation, which is now an official holiday.

Two years passed since the rush withdrawal of the US and its allies from Kabul, which left the country under the rule of the Taliban mistakenly thought to have been defeated in 2001.

Ambiguous equilibrium

When the Taliban seized power in August 2021, the regime faced three major challenges: economic and humanitarian crises, the lack of effective governance and the lack of international recognition.

The economic problems were massive. The abrupt withdrawal of all the foreign aid (about $8b annually, or about 40% of the Afghan GDP) caused a severe economic shock that no country in the world could have overcome without severe consequences. It was followed by the suspension of international financial transactions, the collapse of the banking system, the ongoing US and UN sanctions against Taliban leaders, and freezing of Afghanistan's $9b foreign exchange reserves.

Given the difficulties and challenges, Taliban's management of economy has exceeded expectations. At least they have ensured a relatively stable exchange rate for the national currency Afghani, low inflation, efficient tax collection and export growth, prevented the massive outflow of capital and significantly reduced corruption.

The progress was made not so much as a result of the Taliban's harsh methods, but because of the removal of the previous corrupt government officials supported by the US and NATO. In Kabul, a city of 4.5 million people, there are many signs of improved law and order. The city's mayor, Hamdullah Nomani, has pushed through roadworks that had been delayed for years by illegal self-buildings. Street vending has been streamlined. Drug addicts have been sent to rehabilitation facilities. Street intersections have been improved, unsanitary restaurants have been closed, and 30,000 street dogs have been vaccinated against rabies.

According to a recent World Bank study, the percentage of businesses paying bribes to customs officials has dropped from 62% to 8%. Sanzar Kakar, an Afghan-born American entrepreneur who owns the country's largest accounting firm, says his employees are no longer asked for bribes during regular visits to the ministry of finance, which used to be a daily headache. The departure of a whole host of corrupt people, including members of parliament as well as cabinet ministers and intelligence officials, is one of the biggest blessings, The Economist quoted Kakar.

This is incomparable to what happened during the previous Taliban rule in 1996-2001. The old regime did not control the Afghan currency, failed to curb hyperinflation, and state revenues were negligible. The Afghan economy was largely in a state of collapse, with annual per capita income dropped to less than $200, and appalling social indicators such as maternal and child mortality.

This time, however, after an unexpectedly rapid seizure of power, the Taliban inherited functioning state institutions, including the ministry of finance and the central bank. They retained some of the necessary structures - tax and budgetary - and got rid of "superfluous" ones, such as the judiciary and the Ministry of Women's Affairs.

Recently, there have even been some signs of a moderate economic recovery, such as a 36 per cent increase in imports in the first five months of 2023. However, international economists dubbed the current stability a "hungry equilibrium", in which most Afghans lack livelihoods and require large amounts of humanitarian aid to prevent real famine.

According to the UN, 97 per cent of Afghans live below the poverty line. The population in some rural areas is on the verge of starvation. 16 million children do not receive basic nutrition and medical care. In 2019, 6.3 million Afghans needed humanitarian assistance. Now this number reaches 28 million.

The UN World Food Programme (WFP) has set up food distribution centres across the country. Last year, the UN spent more than $3.25b on humanitarian aid. In 2023, this number increased to $4.6b.

Humanitarian aid is distributed through UN agencies and non-governmental organisations. UNICEF, the UN Children's Fund has paid stipends to nearly 200,000 teachers. The International Red Cross Committee pays the salaries of 10,000 health workers. The Taliban cannot tolerate these financial flows bypassing them, thereby making efforts to put their hands on everything. They are already taking some of the humanitarian money through licences, taxes and other administrative fees imposed on NGOs.

Gender apartheid

Once back in power, the radical Islamist group Taliban initially presented itself as a more moderate version of the former regime. But very soon the country began a brutal crackdown.

The UN notes systematic and shocking violations of human rights, including the right to education, labour, freedom of expression, evidence of mass executions, widespread illegal detention, torture and ill-treatment, and forced displacement. Authorities have introduced cruel and inhuman punishments such as stoning, flogging and walling.

The most affected are women and girls, ethnic, religious and other minorities, people with disabilities, displaced persons, human rights defenders and other civil society actors, journalists, artists, educators, and former civil servants.

The Taliban have imposed many draconian restrictions on Afghan women and girls, effectively pushing them out of public life. Since their second coming to power, they have already imposed 51 bans on women. Secondary schools for girls have been closed, women are banned from attending universities and working for non-governmental organisations, are restricted from travelling unaccompanied by men, and are banned from public places, including parks and gyms.

Women can no longer work in most industries. Recently beauty parlours across the country have also been closed. Of some 60,000 women employed in the industry, many were the sole breadwinners in their families. This has created additional problems for families already struggling to make ends meet.

All these events caused serious damage to mental health of people, including depression and suicide, especially among adolescent girls deprived of education.

The UN calls it "gender apartheid". Even Qatar, Saudi Arabia and China, the Taliban's closest allies in Afghanistan, have called on the organisation to ease restrictions. But the supreme leader of Taliban, Haibatullah Akhundzada, has a different view. He believes his government has provided Afghan women with a comfortable and prosperous life.

A threat to peace

After twenty years of fighting in Afghanistan, the international community effectively left the country two years ago. But their hopes that a Taliban-run Afghanistan would not pose a threat to the world were based on three interrelated miscalculations. First, that the Taliban have changed and become better; second, that the Taliban will sever ties with foreign terrorist groups and drive them out; and third, that the Taliban will thwart other organised criminal activities with transnational effects.

Evidence shows that the Taliban have not only joined forces with foreign terrorist groups, but are also actively involved in transnational organised crime, posing a clear danger to the region and internationally.

More than 20 terrorist groups are currently active in Afghanistan. Most of them, including al-Qaeda and several others, have been fighting Afghan and coalition forces for years. Since the Taliban seized power in 2021, these groups have found ways to consolidate forces.

There have been numerous cross-border clashes with Pakistani and Iranian border guards, as well as a series of rocket attacks on Tajikistan and Uzbekistan by Islamic State of Khorasan militants over the past few months. Most of these gangs are interconnected and have relationships with groups within the Taliban.

The Taliban are highly divided along tribal, factional, organisational and ideological lines, which prevents them from adhering to a unified line of behaviour. Moderates struggle with hardliners, and mid-level commanders refuse to follow orders from the leadership. However, the number of moderate members of the organisation negotiating with the international community is too small to offer any meaningful resistance to the movement's fusion with foreign terrorists and transnational criminal networks.

So two years later, the Taliban still have the same three serious problems preventing them from gaining legitimacy at international level.