AFRICAN FIASCO OF PARIS

At the end of September, Paris tried to push through yet another anti-Azerbaijani resolution in the UN Security Council to satisfy Armenia, to no avail again. Why is France doing this? What is the practical interest? Many believe the main reason behind the active French diplomacy in the South Caucasus in recent years is Paris's desire to compensate for significant failures in other regions. Especially in Africa, where France is losing control over the countries of the continent each month. In July and August alone, Paris lost two of its once most loyal allies on the Black Continent. And it seems the trend will continue in the future.

Inglorious end of neo-colonialism

There are many reasons why France is rapidly losing ground many decades after the decolonisation of its African colonies, when it played an exceptional role in their post-colonial fate. From the growing discontent with the essentially neo-colonial practices of French authorities and volatile internal political dynamics to the growing geopolitical rivalry between external powers for spheres of influence in Africa. The elites of numerous African states sensed an opportunity to strengthen their positions by attracting external interests, thereby pushing their political rivals out of power. They began an unconcealed flirting with countries that have a practical interest in the affairs of the continent. These include China, Russia, many major regional players, including Türkiye, Saudi Arabia and India.

Paris has once firmly dominated the French-speaking part of Africa, especially in the countries of the so-called Franc Zone known for military coups and open opposition of local governments to the hegemony of Paris in the last decade. The chronological flow of events shows that significant shifts began right after the inauguration of the incumbent French president Emmanuel Macron. In other words, there is a clear link between the foreign policy pursued by the French president, particularly in Africa, and the ongoing processes in West Africa. 

One of the first coups in West Africa began in Mali. On August 18, 2020, the rebel military seized the general staff of the country and arrested the top leadership, including President Ibrahim Boubacar Keita who had led the country since 2013. They then formed the National Committee for the Salvation of the People led by Colonel Assimi Goita.

On September 5, 2021, a group of military officers led by Special Forces Lieutenant Colonel Mamady Doumbouya ousted Guinean President Alpha Conde, who has ruled the country since 2010.

Even less than five months later, on January 24, 2022, the military detained President of Burkina Faso, Roch Marc Christian Kabore (president since 2015). A group called the Patriotic Movement for Safeguard and Restoration led by Lieutenant Colonel Paul-Henri Damiba announced the removal of the president, the suspension of the constitution, and the dissolution of the government and parliament. On September 30, 2022, Burkinabe military announced live on state television that Damiba had also been removed from power. The putschists announced Captain Ibrahim Traore as the country's new leader, who was appointed president of Burkina Faso and commander-in-chief on October 6.

Military coups in West Africa later continued in Niger, where the National Guard detained President Mohamed Bazoum (ruled since February 2021) on July 26, 2023. On July 28, the commander of the presidential guard, General Abdourahamane Tchiani, was proclaimed the head of the transitional government.

A month or so later, on August 30, the same thing happened in a neighbouring region. In Gabon, one of the few remaining French-friendly states in the region, a group of officers overthrew the president of the country Ali Bongo Ondimba (since 2009). The reason was the military's disagreement with the outcome of the presidential election.

Horror vacui

Remarkably, all five states are members of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS). Three of them are members of the Franc Zone, which unites countries, with CFA (French African colonies) franc being their national currency.

Paris has had a strong influence in all of these countries, with the exception of Guinea, also thanks to limited contingents of French troops stationed there. French companies had an exclusive position in the economies of these countries.

There is an opinion that the change of regimes in the ECOWAS states might be due to the Russian private military company (PMC) Wagner, which worked closely with the rebel commanders and, according to some reports, helped them with the coups and subsequent retention of power.

In the aftermath of the Arab Spring, terrorist organisations began to infiltrate the region and took control of large areas. Local governments turned to France for help. Paris replied by dispatching its military contingents, which have been involved in counter-terrorism operations in West Africa since 2013.

The first one was the Operation Serval in Mali in 2013. In fact, the French forces succeeded in pushing terrorist groups into desert areas. However, the rebels changed tactics, dispersed across the desert and infiltrated neighbouring states. This prompted Paris to launch the Operation Barkhane, deploying about 5,000 troops in Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger and Chad. But they failed to counter the terrorist threat. In parallel, the region saw the beginning of the decline of France's authority.

Dissatisfied with the situation, part of the military elite in some West African countries opposed their own leadership accused of actively cooperating with the French and the defiant behaviour of the French military, which often behaved like masters of the situation. PMC Wagner has thus become an effective partner for the new military leadership that came to power in some West African countries in recent years.

The French media referred to rebel states as the Camp of the Colonels and recognised their strong interest in establishing contacts with non-Western powers, especially Russia and China. In addition, the new leaders openly call for the revision of the situation that has emerged in these countries over the past decades and the redistribution of resources. They believe that Paris, not the local societies, has been the real master here all these years.

Meanwhile, the desire to resist Paris' attempts to regain its former influence is so great that Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger have even formed a military alliance in case the ECOWAS coalition instigated by France dares to launch a military intervention in these countries.

Black days for the African franc

In 2019, the French government announced the reform of the CFA franc. It was planned to change its name to eco, to ensure the withdrawal of France from the governing bodies of the franc zone countries, and to cancel the obligation of African states to centralise their money in the French Treasury, that is, to keep their national reserves in France.

However, the reform has been postponed several times for various reasons and has not been finalised yet. It is also planned to ensure the transition to a single currency among the ECOWAS member states. The organisation also includes English-speaking states that are not part of the franc zone. They are the main stakeholders in the process, being led by Nigeria, the largest economy in the region, which has the US and the UK as its main extra-regional foreign policy partners and allies. London is trying to strengthen its influence in the region by weakening the franc zone and strengthening the positions of the US dollar and the British pound.

The situation with the new currency to replace the CFA franc is still a topic of debates. These include the prospects of a fixed parity with the euro guaranteed by France.

In return for the French Treasury's guarantee, the Franc Zone central banks are obliged to place at least 65% of their foreign exchange reserves in a special account of the French Treasury. It is clear that Paris does not want to lose the revenue, which the Western media dubbed as a colonial tax.

France and its closest partners in Africa suggest that fixed parity with the euro as well as convertibility guarantees should continue to be provided by the Bank of France, at least in the short term. Critics, on the other hand, see the maintenance of the CFA franc as a kind of colonial tax. In particular, the fixed exchange rate and the tight peg to the euro hinder lending.

There are recommendations to tie the new currency eco to other world currencies: dollar, pound sterling, yen, and yuan. But the whole story mainly revolves around the US dollar, which is in extremely high demand in the oil-producing Nigeria, which has a weak national currency. By supporting the introduction of the eco and not being part of the CFA zone, Nigeria is like a Trojan horse of the region, strengthening the US dollar to replace the euro.

Because of the ongoing controversy, which impedes the introduction of the new currency, it was decided to postpone the release up until 2027.

Don't blame the mirror...

The Nigerian Army is considered as the backbone of the ECOWAS collective force for the armed suppression of the insurgency in Niger. It is the largest military force in the region and will apparently be assigned the role of a regional policeman free of the French interests.

France's rapid loss of influence in Africa gives other countries, especially its rival – Italy – a chance to gain a foothold on the Black Continent.

In an attempt to save his own image and to improve the reputation of France in Africa, President Macron made an African tour in early March 2023. He then tried to demonstrate Paris' new approach to the continent's problems. He promised that France would not interfere in the internal affairs of African countries and would build partnerships with them.

Although the French president emphasised business and humanitarian cooperation, he did not do without politics. Therefore, amid anti-French sentiments in many countries of the region, this tour actually became another trigger for the deterioration of relations between Paris and its African partners.

Macron even managed to make a scene with his Congolese counterpart Felix Tshisekedi when the latter reminded him of France's involvement in the 1994 genocide. Tshisekedi asked how France was going to help restore security in Congo. Instead of a diplomatic response, Macron began squabbling with his colleague in front of journalists. He rejected any responsibility that could be attributed to France. "I am in favour of the truth, but the whole truth. I refuse to take on all this burden. France is not obliged to do you 'good', that is your task," the French leader replied in bluntly.

As a result of similar policies, the number of African states that are friendly to Paris has seriously decreased in recent years. The French government sees the main reason for its failures in the corrupt authorities of African countries, in the intrigues of geopolitical rivals, and in an attempt to put Paris' foot down while it is dealing with more global security issues in Ukraine. Being carried away by the search for a scapegoat, the French authorities forgot that no one has been listening to them for a long time. Not only in Africa. So, it is better not to blame the mirror if your own face is crooked.