FIRE OF PASSIONS

The ongoing conflict in the Middle East shows no signs of abating. Following a large-scale attack by Hamas, designated as a terrorist organization by the European Union and the United States, on October 7, the Israeli Defence Forces (IDF) continue their military operations in the Gaza Strip, executing extensive strikes and a ground military operation.

Crisis of Lives

Reports indicate that the death toll has surpassed 30,000, with injuries exceeding 72,000. Concurrently, civilians in Gaza suffer from a severe humanitarian crisis's repercussions.

On February 20, the Anadolu Agency reported, referencing the enclave government's press service, that the Gaza Strip faces a massive famine, potentially affecting over 700,000 people. Other estimates suggest up to 2 million could be impacted.

It is not surprising that Israel faces significant criticism for Palestinian civilian casualties. The situation worsened following several incidents, notably in late February, when a stampede during UN humanitarian aid distribution resulted in numerous Palestinian fatalities. Hamas accused Israeli soldiers of firing on the crowd, an allegation Tel Aviv denied, stating that the proximity of Palestinians to Israeli soldiers posed a "genuine threat," though the shots were not lethal.

Even if we ignore the incident with the military shots, the situation still remains terrible in the Gaza Strip. Humanitarian aid was not distributed but simply looted. There was a massive stampede, trucks crushed people, followed by chaotic shooting. Moreover, apparently, there were also many children in the crowd.

The UN Security Council, in a March 2 meeting, called for security measures to protect civilians and infrastructure in the Gaza Strip, emphasizing that all conflict parties must adhere to international law and not deny humanitarian assistance to the civilian population.

The Council also urged Israel to maintain open checkpoints and ensure the delivery of humanitarian supplies. UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Türk commented on the exacerbating effect of Israeli settlement activity in Palestinian territories on the prospects of Palestinian statehood. In the year leading up to October 2023, an additional 24.3 thousand Israeli constructions were documented in the West Bank.

Contradictions with the Memorandum

In February, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken expressed Washington's disappointment with Israel's plans to construct 3,300 new houses in West Bank settlements.

Congressional Democrats have increased pressure on the White House to utilize arms sales as leverage to prompt Israel to alter its military conduct and address the humanitarian crisis. The Joe Biden administration has shown growing dissatisfaction with Israel's actions. The Israeli incursion into Rafah, the last major city in Gaza without Israeli soldiers, "is likely to contradict" Biden's newly signed national security memorandum. This document requires recipients of US military aid to provide "credible written assurances" of compliance with international law. Consequently, the White House has requested the State Department and Pentagon to compile a list of all pending or planned arms sales to Israel.

Democratic Senator Chris Van Hollen suggested that the Biden administration should suspend any arms transfers to Israel until US laws and stipulations are fulfilled. Tel Aviv has indicated a willingness to comply with such conditions.

Humanitarian Port

Amidst the escalating conflict, international efforts to deliver humanitarian aid to Gaza persist. The US Central Command and the Jordanian Armed Forces executed a joint operation, deploying 36.8 thousand food packages into the northern Gaza Strip from C-130 Hercules aircraft. A tragic mishap occurred when a container's parachute failed to deploy, resulting in at least five fatalities, including children.

Furthermore, the European Commission, Cyprus, the UAE, the USA, and the UK have sanctioned the establishment of a maritime corridor for aid delivery. Reports suggest the US plans to construct a temporary port in the sector for this purpose. The UAE and Egypt have initiated a joint humanitarian air operation, while Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan has urged the regional community to decisively end the blockade.

The potential for a big fire in the Middle East is a concern shared by the United States and other regional nations, given the convergence of numerous geopolitical interests within this compact area.

Election of Controversies

In the US, internal political strife and the intensifying presidential race add complexity to the situation. Allies of former President Donald Trump, who seeks re-election, reportedly met with senior Israeli officials. Keith Kellogg, Trump's former national security advisor, is said to have visited Tel Aviv to discuss Trump's potential policies towards the Gaza conflict. Meetings were held with Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer and Knesset Speaker Amir Ohana.

Recall that it was under Trump's tenure that the Abraham Accords were signed, in an attempt to normalise relations between Israel and certain Arab nations; the US embassy was relocated to Jerusalem, and Israeli sovereignty over the Golan Heights was acknowledged.

Israeli leadership faces its own internal challenges, with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu under increasing pressure. Benny Gantz, leader of the Mahane Mamlahti party and Minister of the Israeli Emergency Government, travelled to Washington to meet with US Vice President Kamala Harris, Presidential National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan, members of Congress from the Republican and Democratic parties, as well as with leaders American Israel Public Affairs Committee without Netanyahu's coordination, inciting his ire and being labelled a "political demarche."

Opposition leader Yair Lapid has expressed willingness to join the government if Netanyahu excludes the far-right elements of his coalition. He asserts (and Gantz's trip proves this) that the military and security cabinets are in conflict, with the latter, including hardliners like Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir, reportedly urging civilians to obstruct humanitarian aid to Gaza. Netanyahu, linking the crisis to his political future, remains steadfast in his stance to continue operations against Hamas, including in Rafah.

At an Israeli officer graduation ceremony on March 7, Netanyahu recognized international pressure and called for Israeli unity. "We must stand together against attempts to stop the war," he stated, emphasizing solidarity in the face of external pressures.

Reports from Al-Sharq Al-Awsat suggest that Netanyahu may aim to maintain Israeli control over the Gaza Strip for a decade, with intentions to transform it in a manner akin to the West Bank. This strategy would necessitate the dismantling of Hamas and the establishment of an alternate government.

Despite hopes for a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas by March 4, the situation remains unresolved. However, diplomatic efforts continue, with Qatar and Egypt—concerned about the vast number of displaced Palestinians and possessing potential influence over Israel—reportedly facilitating a meeting between US CIA Director William Burns and the head of Mossad. The gravity of the participants implies an expectation for some level of outcome.

The future of the Middle East crisis remains uncertain. Analysts point to a diminished US influence in the region, while recognizing that other powers like Iran, China, Russia, Türkiye, and the Gulf monarchies, whether acting alone or in concert, cannot fully substitute the US role due to divergent interests. The region is further complicated by numerous proxy forces, exemplified by the Houthi attacks in the Red Sea. The Houthis have vowed to continue their assaults until "Israeli aggression ceases and the blockade of the Palestinian people in the Gaza Strip is lifted," having conducted over 45 missile and drone strikes on commercial and military vessels. These actions have disrupted Suez Canal shipping, influencing broader geopolitical dynamics.

The repercussions of the Gaza conflict will undoubtedly reverberate throughout the region for years, regardless of its conclusion. If you need any more adjustments or further assistance, please let me know.