NATO'S KNOCKING ON THE DOOR

The ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine significantly affects the interests of global actors. The escalating stand-off between Russia and Western nations compels various countries and alliances to forge new relationships with neighbouring and distant regions. NATO is among those affected, with its interest in the South Caucasus—adjacent to Russia and Iran—increasing markedly. The visit of NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg to Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Armenia serves as a potent confirmation of this interest.

Azerbaijan's Horizons of Cooperation: Energy and Environment

The inaugural and most extended stop on the NATO official's South Caucasus journey was the Republic of Azerbaijan. Strategically, Azerbaijan stands as the sole nation in the area abutting both Russia and Iran, who are active military collaborators. Additionally, Baku maintains connections with the Central Asian republics, pivotal for meeting the escalating energy demands of European NATO members. Consequently, Brussels must grasp the rationale behind Baku's policies to cultivate a relationship that furthers its own interests without impinging on those of Azerbaijan.

In discussions with President Ilham Aliyev, energy security emerged as a focal point. This emphasis is no coincidence, considering Azerbaijan's natural gas exports to eight nations, including six NATO members and two Alliance partners. Baku's role in bolstering the energy security of NATO's eastern and southern flanks has garnered significant appreciation from the Alliance's leadership, especially with plans to augment supplies. Azerbaijan's significance for NATO is also on the rise due to its burgeoning impact on the global environmental discourse. Baku's stature as a conduit and provider of green energy to Europe is likewise ascending. President Aliyev remarked, "Our country is rich in natural resources and fossil fuel reserves, and we are making substantial investments in renewable energy alongside our partners. I have extended an invitation to Mr. Secretary General to join us this November in any role to partake in our pivotal conference (COP29)."

Stoltenberg reminisced about his tenure as Norwegian Energy Minister and his visits to Baku, underscoring his deep awareness of Azerbaijan's value as an energy sector ally. This significance is poised to persist, given Baku's comprehensive embrace of a "green" agenda. The presence of Ecology Minister and COP29 President Mukhtar Babayev at the working dinner hosted by President Aliyev in honour of the esteemed visitor underscores the prominence of environmental concerns and the international environmental forum in the capital's bilateral engagements.

The subject of Garabagh's restoration received special attention. Specifically, Baku is keen on leveraging NATO's expertise and potential aid in clearing the extensive territories in Garabagh and Eastern Zangezur, recently freed from Armenian control.

Conflict-free Agenda

During the Armenian-Azerbaijani negotiations, it was underscored that Baku, for the first time, did not prioritize the normalization of relations with Yerevan in its dialogue with NATO's leadership. Concurrently, NATO, which seeks robust collaboration with both Baku and Yerevan, perceives the normalization along the Azerbaijan-Armenia axis as a gateway to novel interactions within the South Caucasus. It is noteworthy that the Azerbaijani military has excelled in NATO's peacekeeping missions in Kosovo and Afghanistan, enhancing their combat proficiency through these experiences. The Azerbaijani Armed Forces' active engagement in regular NATO drills further bolsters this development, with both parties anticipating ongoing cooperation in this domain.

President Ilham Aliyev acknowledged the fruitful outcomes of the reforms in Azerbaijan's Armed Forces. "We are enhancing our defence capabilities and currently exhibit a high degree of professionalism," he declared. Notably, Azerbaijan is shaping its military forces following the model of one of NATO's foremost armies—Türkiye—thereby serving as a regional exemplar of NATO's structure.

Addressing the restoration of territorial integrity via military and political strategies, President Aliyev stated, "This serves as a prime illustration of resolving enduring conflicts. We resolved the conflict through military and political means, exercising our right to self-defense as enshrined in the UN Charter." These comments also pose a critical inquiry: if NATO endorses Ukraine's use of military action to reclaim its sovereignty, why do some Alliance nations, such as France, contest Azerbaijan's similar invocation of this right?

It is significant to note that NATO Secretary General's engagements in Baku extended beyond President Aliyev, encompassing separate discussions with Foreign Minister Jeyhun Bayramov and Defence Minister Zakir Hasanov. The dialogue with Bayramov concentrated on the nuances of the Armenia-Azerbaijan negotiation process, with NATO anticipating a seamless progression leading to the execution of definitive accords, including a peace treaty.

Conversations with Hasanov delved into the potential for reforms within the Azerbaijani Army and the intensification of its rapport with NATO. Topics of particular interest included ongoing military exercises, demining initiatives, and the formulation of mutual components within the NATO-Azerbaijan security paradigm. Brussels manifests a pronounced eagerness to fortify the partnership between the armed forces of Azerbaijan and Türkiye, an integral NATO member. This alliance offers prospects for embedding NATO within the regional security framework, where the Azerbaijani-Turkish alliance is increasingly influential.

Georgia-NATO: Reflecting on Progress

In stark contrast to Azerbaijan, which, despite its military's alignment with NATO standards, does not actively seek membership, Georgia is methodically implementing its leadership's directives to inch closer to joining NATO. Stoltenberg's counsel to Georgia during his Tbilisi visit was to persist with reforms, escalate defence investments, and extend support to Ukraine, thereby progressing towards NATO integration.

The Georgian political establishment opts to distance itself from the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, positioning itself at odds with Ukrainian authorities. NATO's disapproval of this approach is explicit, urging Tbilisi to more assertively align with the Alliance's stance against Russia, either by participating in sanctions against Moscow or by avoiding actions that might undermine them.

NATO commends Tbilisi's progress toward European integration, viewing it as a supplementary criterion for Alliance membership. Stoltenberg highlighted the distinction between EU and NATO prerequisites, noting, "The EU has broader parameters, while NATO focuses on security... EU negotiations involve specific criteria, whereas for NATO, being European is a primary criterion, and Georgia is a European nation." He also underscored the significance of democratic principles and adherence to NATO's democratic norms.

During Stoltenberg's visit to Tbilisi, there was an impression that he was relaying the Alliance's wishes or directives. Addressing journalists' suspicions of such undertones, Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze asserted Georgia's independence, declaring, "Georgia is an independent state and no entity can issue directives to it, including friends or partners." The Georgian leadership seeks to assert its sovereignty through its actions and communicate this position to its citizens.

Armenian Engagement with NATO

Wrapping up his South Caucasus tour, Stoltenberg arrived in Armenia for talks with Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan. Their discussions spanned the regional dynamics, including Armenian-Azerbaijani normalization endeavours and the prospects for NATO-Armenia collaboration. Stoltenberg conveyed hope for Armenia and Azerbaijan to achieve enduring peace after prolonged conflict, advocating for a settlement conducive to normalization and lasting tranquillity among their populations.

From the NATO Secretary General's perspective, Brussels prioritizes the South Caucasus's stability to avert diversions from the central military engagement in Ukraine. Stoltenberg stated, "We discussed the importance of stability in the South Caucasus. This is vital for Euro-Atlantic security in an increasingly hazardous global context."

In a show of goodwill toward Armenia, Stoltenberg reaffirmed NATO's support for Armenia's sovereignty, territorial integrity, and Prime Minister Pashinyan's peaceful ambitions. Considering Pashinyan's tense relations with the CSTO and Russia, NATO's endorsement represents a show of solidarity with Armenia against potential adversities. Unlike the CSTO, NATO is ready to actively defend its interests in the face of such challenges.

It is crucial to note that in Baku, Stoltenberg received assurances of no intent to aggress against Armenia, suggesting that the fervor around this topic is manipulative.

On the day of Stoltenberg's visit to Yerevan, Prime Minister Pashinyan congratulated Vladimir Putin on his re-election as Russian president via a message, a subtler approach compared to other Moscow allies. This gesture highlights Armenia's noticeable pro-Western tilt in its foreign policy.

In dialogue with the esteemed Western official, Pashinyan aimed to mitigate potential negative responses from Iran, which is wary of Armenia's growing rapport with NATO. Pashinyan affirmed, "Armenia remains dedicated to regionalization policies. Our substantial ties with Georgia and Iran are of utmost importance, and our partnerships do not seek to provoke discord within our region."