AIMING FOR TOMORROW

Among the recent important political events in the region, one of the most intriguing occurrences was likely the municipal elections in Türkiye. These elections are particularly interesting as they marked the conclusion of a significant electoral cycle that commenced last May with presidential and parliamentary elections. What makes them even more intriguing are the unexpected outcomes they produced.

Waking Up In a Different Country

The distribution of political power following these elections will have a notable impact on future internal political discussions within the country and potentially on the political landscape leading up to the next presidential elections.

The elections showcased a substantial level of voter engagement in the political process, with over 78% of the 61 million eligible voters participating. This high turnout also signifies the strong trust of voters in the electoral process.

Considering that these elections were conducted under challenging political circumstances, the results provide insights into the actual distribution of political power within the country and, significantly, their regional variations.

According to Ahmet Yener, Chairman of Türkiye's Supreme Election Commission (CEC), based on the count of 99.99% of ballots, the Republican People's Party (CHP) secured a majority in 35 urban municipalities, while the Justice and Development Party (AKP) won in 24, and the pro-Kurdish DEM Parti in 10. Other parties such as the Nationalist Movement, New Welfare Party, Great Unity Party, and Good Party emerged victorious in 8, 2, 1, and 1 cities respectively.

Yener also revealed that in the competition for mayoral positions in 30 metropolitan cities, the HDP triumphed in 14, while the AKP emerged victorious in 12. Approximately 60% of Türkiye's population resides in areas where the leading opposition People's Republican Party garnered support, including regions generating around two-thirds of the country's GDP.

Despite maintaining control over Istanbul, Ankara, Izmir, and Antalya, and gaining dominance in 13 additional regional centres compared to the 2019 municipal elections, the AKP faced setbacks. President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's strenuous efforts to bolster his party's mayoral candidates, particularly in Istanbul, Ankara, and Izmir, did not yield the desired results. The People's Republican Party's victory is notable as it marks their most significant success since 1977.

In Istanbul, Ekrem Imamoglu was re-elected mayor—a feat considered a strong presidential bid victory. He surpassed his previous election performance by securing victory in 12 new regions on top of the 14 he won in 2019. Consequently, out of Greater Istanbul's 36 regions, the primary opposition party now holds a commanding majority of 26. In Ankara, Mansur Yavas from ANP also solidified his position with 60% of the vote, leaving his rival with only 37%, an unprecedented margin since the 1970s.

The Justice and Development Party, Nationalist Movement Party, and Good Party experienced a decline in voter support compared to previous elections. The pro-Kurdish party DEM also witnessed a drop in voter backing, securing only 6% of votes after losing 4%.

Lessons Learned

Reflecting on the election outcomes, Türkiye's leader acknowledged receiving the nation's message through the ballot box and deemed March 31 as a pivotal moment for himself and his supporters. Erdogan emphasized their evaluation of the election results and their commitment to engaging in self-criticism boldly following their unanticipated performance in the municipal elections.

Over the past decades, it has been a prevailing trend for the opposition to dominate municipal elections in the coastal provinces of Türkiye, where major urban centres are situated. These areas not only serve as economic hubs but also as significant tourist and humanitarian focal points in the country. They play a crucial role in shaping Türkiye's political landscape and reflect the primary expectations of voters regarding the country's domestic and foreign policy direction.

In comparison to previous elections, the opposition has notably expanded its sphere of influence, reaching a pivotal position that poses a considerable challenge to the ruling party. The opposition now commands authority over more than half of all provinces, while Turkish pro-government parties maintain control mainly over the country's inland regions, albeit with some ambiguity. These areas are predominantly sparsely populated and less developed.

Türkiye is divided into seven key regions, none of which hold a majority for parties aligned with the ruling National Alliance. The opposition exerts full dominance in the Aegean Sea region and enjoys overwhelming superiority in the Marmara and Mediterranean Sea regions, recognized as the primary industrialized zones of Türkiye.

Erdogan's Dilemma

This newfound advantage provides the opposition with unprecedented leverage and influence, marking a significant shift during the Justice and Development Party's administration. The election results suggest that the leading opposition party stands on firmer ground for success in the upcoming electoral cycle starting in 2028. These outcomes may also prompt President Erdogan to pivot towards addressing domestic issues and meeting the demands of Turkish society, potentially diverting attention from large-scale geopolitical initiatives pursued previously.

For Erdogan, this election appears to present a critical juncture as he grapples with securing continuity in power within a context where his political successor must be grounded in effective political institutions. The municipal elections underscored vulnerabilities within the government and highlighted shortcomings in past approaches to local political governance.

Notably, a day before the municipal elections, The Wall Street Journal featured an article suggesting that Selcuk Bayraktar, head of UAV manufacturer Bayraktar and Erdogan's son-in-law, could potentially assume leadership in Türkiye after the forthcoming presidential elections. While not a seasoned politician, Bayraktar enjoys significant popularity both domestically and internationally. However, even his candidacy could entail risks if the ruling party fails to address its electoral missteps.

Following the election, Hürriyyet newspaper published an editorial announcing an imminent major cabinet reshuffle in Türkiye as a consequence of the ruling party's shortcomings. This move is believed to stem from economic challenges and perceived inefficiencies in governmental measures to tackle the crisis.

Recent statistics from the Turkish statistical service TurkStat indicate a resurgence in consumer price growth, with inflation reaching 68.5% annually in March compared to 67.07% in February. This inflationary pressure is predominantly felt by residents in major cities, where the cost of living escalation is most pronounced. Forecasts project inflation peaking at 75% annually in May, marking a 23-year high and surpassing levels observed throughout the ruling party's tenure.

The aftermath of the election saw a further 0.2% depreciation of the lira against the dollar, plummeting to an all-time low of 32.4 per dollar. The rapid devaluation of the Turkish lira positions it as the second-worst performing currency after the Chilean peso.

The authorities' response to the current challenges remains a topic of keen interest. The opposition adeptly capitalizes on these hardships, particularly evident in cities where they hold a numerical advantage in municipal governance. Additionally, major coastal cities like Istanbul, Izmir, and Adana have a notable proportion of Syrian refugees, adding strain to the social infrastructure. Turkish statistics from a year ago indicated 5.4 million foreigners in the country, with nearly 1.3 million residing in Istanbul, constituting approximately 8% of its population. Among them, over 500,000 are Syrian nationals, many of whom face socio-economic struggles and are involved in illicit activities. This situation serves as an additional source of tension for locals not just in Istanbul but also in other Turkish urban centres. The opposition criticizes the authorities for their perceived inaction in resolving the refugees' social challenges and, crucially, for failing to fulfil their pledge to repatriate them.

Turkish officials had previously pledged a gradual repatriation of these individuals to their home countries. However, various factors such as a significant earthquake within Türkiye, intricate political developments in the Middle East, including the ongoing anti-terrorist campaign against the Kurdistan Workers' Party, hindered this process.

Despite the authorities boasting recent achievements like a considerable drop in unemployment to its lowest level in the final quarter of 2023—8.8%, the lowest in 42 quarters—this success is marred by persistent inflation issues.

Meanwhile, the sustained popularity of the pro-Kurdish DEM Parti raises concerns. The expansion of its influence geographically fuels separatist sentiments. Concurrently, efforts against Kurdish separatists intensify within Türkiye. Just days after the municipal elections, four YPG/PKK militants were neutralized in the Operation Euphrates Shield region in northern Syria. Ankara maintains its stance that Kurdish separatism and Kurdish political rights within a unified Turkish nation are distinct concepts. Consequently, despite challenges, the AKP remains predominant in a significant portion of Kurdish-inhabited Turkish regions.

Nonetheless, victory for political adversaries in the "Kurdish fringes" is not assured. Ultimately, time will reveal the efficacy and sufficiency of the ruling party's response to their electoral setback. It is evident that time is of the essence in finding viable solutions to address the prevailing circumstances.