HOWITZERS WON'T HELP

On June 26, Azerbaijan celebrated its significant state holiday - Armed Forces Day. The celebration encompassed the entire country, now free from occupied territories and "grey zones". The Azerbaijani army demonstrated its prowess by securing a brilliant victory in Garabagh. Many experts believed Azerbaijan and Armenia had an opportunity to move past war and construct a peaceful future. Regrettably, as news from Yerevan indicates, not everyone there is prepared for peace. This is putting it mildly.

French "Gift" To Pashinyan

This news captured the regional expert community's attention: Armenia has contracted with France to purchase 36 state-of-the-art CAESAR self-propelled artillery units (SAU).

Baku's reaction was swift. The Azerbaijani military department noted that equipping Armenia with offensive artillery and other weaponry further evidences Paris' provocative activities in the South Caucasus. Simultaneously, the French were caught in a falsehood. Although the French Ministry of Defence assured last October that the military equipment supplied to Armenia was defensive, equipping Armenia with lethal offensive weapons, as per the current military deal, further exposes the French leadership's hypocrisy.

By selling CAESAR self-propelled howitzers to Armenia, France violates EU and NATO red lines by supplying weapons to a CSTO member country. Against the backdrop of Macron's frequent complaints about lacking funds to assist Ukraine, the delivery of self-propelled howitzers to Armenia appears particularly cynical. However, let Paris and its allies address this issue. Azerbaijani political analysts focused on a different aspect. Even before reaching Armenia, the French howitzers shattered the "constructive image" of the current Armenian Prime Minister, leaving no doubt: Yerevan is not inclined towards peace but is preparing for a new aggressive war.

Who needs howitzers

One could advise against exaggerating the situation. Armenia, as a sovereign state, has the right to acquire weapons, and Azerbaijan need not raise alarms about this. It's no secret that Armenian military arsenals are depleted. Azerbaijan not only defeated the invaders and expelled them from its territory but, according to independent experts, today the Armenian army possesses less heavy weaponry and armoured vehicles than what is displayed in Baku's Park of Military Trophies. It's high time to acquire weapons. Since all of Russia's resources, which used to supply Armenia with weapons, are consumed by the Ukrainian war, Yerevan must seek new sellers. Additionally, Yerevan tirelessly indoctrinates itself and assures everyone that Azerbaijan will "attack long-suffering Armenia" and seize "Syunik", i.e., Western Zangezur, imminently. It was even "leaked" to the press that Nikol Pashinyan was holding a meeting on "Syunik".

In this regard, let's reiterate: Azerbaijan has repeatedly emphasised that Baku has no plans to seize Armenian territory. The country has restored its territorial integrity and is not encroaching on neighbouring peoples' lands.

Even assuming Armenia believes in the "Azerbaijani threat", this doesn't explain the purchase of self-propelled howitzers. While air defence radars and surface-to-air missile systems may fit the definition of "defensive weapons", CAESAR self-propelled howitzers do not. Specialists understand the difference between cannons and howitzers. With cannons, the projectile trajectory is oblique. The shells fly parallel to the ground. The task is to keep the enemy down, to make them lie low, to dig into the ground. Howitzer shells fly on a steep overhead trajectory. Howitzers are needed to dislodge the enemy from shelters and trenches. Thus, small and medium calibre guns are defensive weapons (with some tolerance), while howitzers are clearly offensive. If, amid an acute shortage of materiel, Armenia is buying howitzers for the latest drams and lumas, this frankly illustrates the current Armenian leadership's priorities.

A peace treaty between Azerbaijan and Armenia remains unsigned. The most significant obstacle lies in the Armenian constitution. Its preamble references Armenia's declaration of independence, which mentions the Armenian SSR Supreme Soviet's decision to "annex" Garabagh. Moreover, while Yerevan previously spoke about the need for constitutional reform, the process has now been firmly paused.

One could argue that Nikol Pashinyan must overcome public opinion resistance, that amid protests against border delimitation led by Archbishop Baghrat Galstanyan, the Armenian Prime Minister simply cannot afford sharp political movements, etc. However, the decision to purchase howitzers specifically was made within the current Prime Minister's inner circle. Thus, Pashinyan's fan club has no chance to absolve itself of responsibility.

Concurrently, incidents on the Azerbaijan-Armenia border are increasing. After several months of relative quiet, "ceasefire violations" are again being recorded here. Incidentally, such "disturbing fire" is also classic reconnaissance: checking reactions, detecting firing points, etc.

Following the Armenian Foreign Ministry's recent famous statement, the conclusion is unambiguous - something must occur after November.

Tonoyan is in prison, but his case lives on

In May 2015, David Tonoyan, then Deputy Minister of Defence of Armenia, stated in an interview: "Who says that the security belt created in 1994 is sufficient to fulfil its role at Azerbaijan's current level of armament? Who says that the security belt formed around the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic is sufficient for us? Whose assessment is this? According to our assessment, under Azerbaijan's current armament conditions, it is insufficient. Baku will host the Olympic Games; Armenian forces will demonstrate restraint until their completion..." In summer 2015, Azerbaijan was preparing to host the first European Games, and in April 2016, the Armenian army attempted an offensive. The results were quite deplorable for Armenia: the so-called Ohanyan Line breakthrough, the loss of several important heights, including Leletepe. And the shock of confronting a completely different army, not the one from the nineties. Consequently, many military leaders in Armenia lost their posts, including Minister Seyran Ohanyan and his deputy David Tonoyan. Although the latter seemed to have been promoted to Minister of Emergency Situations. Formally it was a promotion, but in essence, a demotion. After the "kebab revolution", Nikol Pashinyan immediately appointed Tonoyan as defence minister, who promised a "new war for new territories" in 2019. But Armenia was legitimately defeated, and Tonoyan not only lost his post but was also arrested.

Azerbaijan will host COP29 in November, and Armenia again promises "something after November". One cannot help but notice the parallels.

Even the details of the leak about French howitzer supplies raise questions. This information was published by Le Figaro's deputy editor Jean-Christophe Buissot, who has close ties with Armenian authorities. While this may not be court evidence, it strongly resembles an attempt to intimidate Baku with this "miracle weapon".

It's no coincidence that in such a situation, Azerbaijani experts have begun discussing the growing risk of a third war. And again at Armenia's prompting.

Third Suicide Attempt

For Armenia, any hot conflict with Azerbaijan is clearly national suicide. French howitzers do not qualify as a Wunderwaffe in any way. Not only because they are bulky, very capricious, and even ordinary mud poses a problem for them. Simply put, 36 French self-propelled guns provide no military advantage - they don't even allow catching up with Azerbaijan. Incidentally, Azerbaijan is also purchasing new weapons from Slovakia, Israel, Türkiye... But CAESAR SAUs may well cloud the judgement of Armenian "strategists" with all the ensuing consequences. There's another aspect: French military instructors may be present at Armenian Armed Forces command posts, whom Yerevan might well assign the role of a "human shield". Generally, France is perceived in Armenia as the best protector and defender.

Meanwhile, experts warn that Paris is not concerned with Armenia's fate or Pashinyan's political future, who has opened the South Caucasus door for France. French politicians - be it Macron, Hidalgo, Pecresse or whoever - are interested in ethnic Armenian votes with French passports. It's no coincidence that even amid the current "honeymoon" with official Yerevan, Emmanuel Macron is openly pressuring Pashinyan to allow French Dashnak leader Murad Papazian to enter Armenia. This is despite the Dashnaks being in stiff opposition to Pashinyan. What does this indicate? France may ostentatiously lament the fate of long-suffering Armenia but is unlikely to save it.

The only question is whether the Armenian government officials realise this and how soberly they assess the situation?