BRITISH RESET

In the more than two months since the current Labour cabinet assumed power, the contours of a new British foreign policy are starting to become clearer, albeit still broadly defined.

In early July, the Labour Party achieved a decisive election victory and formed a government for the first time in 14 years. It has actively engaged in numerous areas of domestic and foreign policy, shifting priorities and adopting different approaches from those of the previous administration—from defence to oil and gas licensing.

The new British Prime Minister Keir Starmer has also expressed a desire to reset Britain's relationship with the European Union and enhance the Brexit agreement established by his predecessors.

However, after nearly a decade of intense negotiations, making concessions in this area may prove more challenging than initially thought.

Mismatching Desires and Opportunities

The Starmer government is striving to cultivate closer ties with Brussels in areas such as trade, education, technology development, and security. Among the agreements it wishes to pursue with the EU is a security pact, with both parties demonstrating a unified stance on this issue.

Another potential agreement involves education and youth mobility. For instance, the inclusion of the UK in the Erasmus Study Abroad programme, which allows university students to study or intern abroad in a partner country.

Simultaneously, there are areas where we should not anticipate an easy reset. Migration has emerged as a significant political concern in Europe. While the UK aims to finalize an agreement to tighten shipping regulations in the English Channel, restricting the use of small vessels by illegal migrants, the EU does not appear particularly inclined towards such an arrangement.

Moreover, the number of refugees and migrants entering the UK illegally across the Channel has surged significantly in recent years, with more arriving on small boats since 2018.

On perhaps the most sensitive issue—trade—the Starmer government seeks to reduce customs controls at Europe's borders and align some UK standards with those of the EU, hoping for a new and improved trade deal.

However, Brussels has shown little willingness to enter into another round of protracted negotiations thus far. European officials have emphasized that London should focus on implementing existing agreements before pursuing new ones. Starmer's attempts to rally support from Euro countries like Germany and France have not yielded clear results.

Transforming good intentions into concrete actions and lasting changes may require months of careful diplomacy, especially as European politicians are still navigating the aftermath of years of fraught Brexit negotiations.

Safety First

In relation to the country's armed forces, one of the government's initial actions following its general election victory was to initiate a "major review" of defence policy to prepare for extended international tensions.

To facilitate this, Starmer has committed to allocating 2.5% of UK GDP to defence and enhancing nuclear capabilities, despite significant constraints on public spending.

During his first trip abroad as Prime Minister, he reaffirmed London’s "unwavering support" for the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO). This commitment comes at a time when the British Army has dwindled from over 500,000 troops in the early 1980s to just under 140,000 today.

In January, the head of the US Navy urged Britain to reassess the size of its armed forces to better address global threats. Former UK Defence Secretary Ben Wallace remarked at that time that the armed forces had been "devastated" and "underfunded" for more than a decade.

The new Defence Minister John Healey, however, informed Parliament that he fully acknowledges the scale of the task ahead, particularly in light of ongoing wars and rising global threats. "We recognize that there are serious issues here as well: low morale, deplorable living conditions for military personnel, and a defence procurement system that the Public Accounts Committee has labeled 'broken' and wasteful of taxpayers' money," he stated. "We cannot resolve all these challenges at once, but we are committed to addressing them," Healey added.

While industry representatives from the defence sector, which provides approximately 85,000 permanent jobs, welcomed the commitment to increase funding in this area, they stressed the importance of closer collaboration with the government.

In their election manifesto, the Labour Party asserted that "the first duty of the Government will be to keep our country safe." They pledged to pursue "new bilateral agreements and closer cooperation with partners in The UK Joint Expeditionary Force (JEF)." This coalition of Northern European countries was established at the UK's initiative in 2014. According to membership requirements, JEF’s primary geographical area of interest covers the Far North, North Atlantic, and Baltic Sea regions, where the kingdom aims to play an increasingly active role.

As early as February 2023, the Defence Committee noted that "Britain's concentration of interests in the High North (Arctic and parts of the North Atlantic) and its leading role within the Joint Expeditionary Force are particularly commendable."

The format is being further institutionalized through JEF Bank and JEF Digital, which aim to enhance and deepen collaboration. JEF Bank is envisioned as a specialized investment bank designed to strengthen defence capabilities or elevate the technological standards of participating countries’ armed forces. Meanwhile, JEF Digital serves as a platform for advancing digital transformation and modernizing technologies for safeguarding network data while facilitating better coordination among regional member states' armed forces.

Berlin and Paris as key partners in Britain's reset

When discussing the foreign policy priorities of the new British government, it is essential to highlight the so-called "reset policy" regarding London’s relations with the European Union.

During Keir Starmer's visit to Berlin at the end of August to explore prospects for a new bilateral cooperation treaty, he stated he was seizing the opportunity to share views on a "broader reset" in Britain's relationship with Europe. The same rationale guided Starmer's visit to Paris.

Signals suggest that Berlin and Paris are open to reciprocating with London. At a joint press conference, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz—a fellow representative of the centre-left—expressed concern that ties between his country and the UK had deteriorated following Brexit. "We want to grasp this outstretched hand," he declared. The incentives to "grasp the hand" extended by the British Prime Minister are numerous. Firstly, Starmer enjoys sustained support from a parliamentary majority unlike his predecessors. Secondly, the British market remains attractive for European—particularly German—producers. Lastly, London continues to be part of the European security framework.

These factors provide his European counterparts with significantly more motivation to invest in long-term mutual understanding with Labour than with their departing Conservative predecessors, who were generally viewed with less trust. Many in Europe believe that the British Prime Minister genuinely seeks to "turn the tide on Brexit," and that the EU should respond accordingly.

Additionally, London, Paris, and Berlin share concerns about far-right parties gaining popularity within their borders. The desire to counteract this trend can also serve as a motivating factor for fostering multilateral dialogue.

However, handshakes before cameras are one thing; practical action is quite another matter. Polls indicate mixed feelings regarding Brexit's decision. Meanwhile, Keir Starmer himself sees no possibility of Britain rejoining the EU "in his lifetime." Labour leaders promise only to reduce friction by "eliminating unnecessary barriers to trade." They categorically dismiss any attempts to reintegrate into the EU Customs Union or single market. The unsuccessful Brexit agreement negotiated by Boris Johnson can only be revisited in 2025-26. It will require substantial effort and considerable trust to overcome Brussels' resistance. On another note, Prime Minister Starmer and his team appear particularly apprehensive about participating in any joint agreements or initiatives that would involve contributing to the EU budget.

Regarding the British government's goals for trade with Europe, its publicly stated ambitions are notably modest. These include establishing a veterinary agreement to reduce barriers to food trade, removing obstacles for touring musicians and other artists, and ensuring mutual recognition of professional qualifications. Although it is much simpler to achieve "breakthrough solutions" in these areas, whether such a "breakthrough" can genuinely be termed a "reset" remains a significant question.