THE ‘QUEEN’ AND HER TWENTY-SIX COMMISSIONERS

Following a period of approximately one month, during which behind-the-scenes negotiations were conducted, Ursula von der Leyen, the president of the EU's executive body, the European Commission (EC), who was re-elected for a second term in July, presented her new team of 26 European commissioners.

The list was met with approval from all observers, including those who had previously expressed criticism and those who had endorsed the nomination. Both parties described it as an excellent appointment. Von der Leyen has successfully positioned individuals in pivotal roles and has also fostered a high degree of interdependence among them. In such a complex bureaucracy, filled with various accountabilities and overlapping responsibilities, it is impossible for any individual to advance too far ahead, provided that they possess the necessary capabilities and ambition. Even the traditionally influential figures will lack sufficient influence, and the inevitable disputes will be resolved solely by von der Leyen herself.

Absolute Control

She has effectively terminated all public discourse, and no longer tolerates any contradiction from her subordinates, as evidenced by Thierry Breton, the Commissioner for the Internal Market, who was promptly censured. Some European media outlets have even characterised the current situation as a "power grab" that will provide von der Leyen with "unlimited control" over EU policy. In any case, what von der Leyen has achieved is all the more remarkable given that she was required to consider the countries' interests, party affiliation and gender of the candidates during the selection process.

The political group of the European Commission President, the centre-right European People's Party (EPP), emerged victorious in the June elections, and von der Leyen's team of commissioners is reflective of this outcome. Fourteen of the 27 commissioners are representatives of the EPP, including the President herself. In general, the EC, which is scheduled to function until 2029, is approaching gender balance, with the average age decreasing from 56 to 52. This reflects a combination of experienced individuals and newcomers. It is possible that some individuals may still leave the team, as the approval of MEPs is required for candidates to assume their positions in full. MEPs will subject all candidates to rigorous scrutiny, evaluating their experience and qualifications while taking into account any past transgressions that may have been committed by the prospective commissioner. Therefore, Oliver Várhelyi (Hungary), Commissioner for Health and Animal Welfare (who was previously criticised by MEPs for referring to them as "idiots" in 2023), Marta Kos (Slovenia), Commissioner for Enlargement, Haja Lahbib (Belgium), Commissioner for Humanitarian Aid, Crisis Management and Equality, and others, are regarded as "controversial" candidates.

Members of the European Commission are assigned portfolios that are analogous to those of ministers or secretaries in national governments. It is expected that each commissioner, responsible for one or more policy areas, will base their work on the overall interests of the EU, rather than on the specific interests of their country. Nevertheless, this is seldom the case in practice. The traditional economic and political powerhouses of the EU – France and Germany – have typically been allocated the most influential portfolios. In the current year, however, following the significant defeat of Emmanuel Macron in the national elections held in June and the similarly lacklustre performance of German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, the usual sequence of events has not occurred. Von der Leyen was quick to exploit this situation to her advantage.

Thierry Breton, the Internal Market Commissioner from France, is known to have had a contentious relationship with the EC President and even openly positioned himself as a potential successor. It is reported that von der Leyen telephoned French President Macron and offered him a more advantageous portfolio in the event of Breton's replacement. Consequently, the former French foreign minister, Stéphane Séjournet, has been nominated as Executive Vice-President for Prosperity and Industrial Strategy. In consequence, it would appear that he would be in a position to exercise direct control over fewer resources within the Commission. While the French commissioner has also been granted new powers by von der Leyen (which were previously under the jurisdiction of the competition commissioner, particularly with regard to subsidies), he will still be required to share these powers with Spain's Teresa Ribera, the competition commissioner. This effectively signifies an increase in authority for von der Leyen, who will now be required to navigate the inevitable conflicts among the commissioners.

For Azerbaijan, the appointment of Stéphane Séjournet, who recently made a notable visit to Yerevan, is significant in terms of how this French diplomat's new role will impact relations between Baku and Brussels. During his visit, Séjournet discussed Paris' willingness to further advance Armenia's rapprochement with the European Union as well as develop cooperation in defence and strategic infrastructure. Stéphane Séjournet has previously engaged in active lobbying on behalf of Armenia's interests, both within France and within the European Parliament. It remains unclear whether he will be able to act in the interests of the entire EU, rather than merely those of Paris.

Teresa Ribera, former Minister for Environmental Transition in Spain, has assumed control of a significant portfolio encompassing EU competition policy, zero-emissions initiatives, and economic transformation. The position is one of considerable influence, and its incumbent, Teresa Ribera, a Spanish socialist, has been the subject of some disquiet. Ribera's extensive experience is acknowledged, having successfully negotiated agreements with trade unions and industry to phase out coal and nuclear power while leading discussions on the implementation of the EU's green agenda. Additionally, she has frequently served as a principal expert and mediator during arduous negotiations at UN climate summits. It is anticipated that Ribera will intensify efforts against major technology companies. Nevertheless, she will also be required to share authority with her colleagues.

Unexpected Reshuffle

It is noteworthy that in von der Leyen's "second Commission," Tallinn and Riga have been allocated pivotal portfolios. Kaja Kallas, the first woman to assume the role of prime minister of Estonia, will assume the role of new foreign policy chief, replacing Josep Borrell. Kallas is renowned for her robust anti-Russian stance. Additionally, Kaja Kallas's former husband is involved in business in Russia, which was a factor in her decision to leave her position before seeking a promotion within EU authorities. There is a divergence of opinion among observers as to whether Kallas will genuinely aspire to become the second most important person in a united Europe or whether she will simply become what is often referred to as a "talking head".

Additionally, Andrius Kubilius of Lithuania has been appointed as the inaugural Commissioner for Defence and Space, a newly established department with the objective of providing support and enhancing the integration of member states' arms efforts. He will be accountable to Finland's Commissioner, Executive Vice-President for Technology, Sovereignty, Security and Democracy Henna Virkkunen. Valdis Dombrovskis, a veteran commissioner, has been assigned the portfolio of Commissioner for Economy and Productivity, Innovation and Simplification.

Meanwhile, key economic portfolios are being allocated to Southern European countries. Italy (Raffaele Fitto, a member of the far-right Italian Brothers party) has been entrusted with the management of the EU cohesion fund and reforms; Portugal (Maria Luis Albuquerque) will oversee financial services; and Teresa Ribera will control the EU's powerful competition tools, as previously mentioned.

Additionally, it is noteworthy to mention the appointments of Henna Virkkunen from Finland and Magnus Brunner from the centre-right Austrian People's Party, who has assumed the role of Minister of the Interior and Migration. In a novel development, the recently constituted European Commission has appointed a Commissioner for the Mediterranean. This individual will assume responsibility for matters pertaining to migration and the supervision of the EU's extended southern neighbourhood. The position has been filled by Dubravka Sujica, a politician from Croatia.

Divide and Conquer

The situation can be broadly described as follows: The President of the European Commission has elected to pursue a conventional strategy. Her strategy of "divide and conquer" has proven to be an accurate assessment. It is also worth noting that, as has been observed by the majority of Western media outlets, the European Commission is demonstrating an enhanced sense of self-assurance and is acquiring greater authority. This represents a further stage in the process of transferring governance in the EU to a supranational level, centred on the twelfth floor of the Berlaymont building in Brussels, where the EU Commission headquarters is located. The next step is to assess the efficacy of this new team in practice. In the near term, the focus of the Brussels administration will be on a number of key issues, including the economy, climate change, the war in Ukraine, migration, agriculture, the enhancement of the bloc's competitiveness, the expansion of military production capacity, and the facilitation of a fair transition to green energy. It is anticipated that the new EU Commission will commence its duties by the end of the year. In addition, it will be required to adapt to the outcome of the US presidential election in November.