SURPRISE RACE

The presidential race in the United States is entering a critical and decisive phase. With slightly over a month remaining until the election of the head of state, the outcome remains entirely unpredictable. The electorate is almost evenly divided, and the intense nature of the internal political struggle is reflected in the harsh mutual accusations among the parties involved and numerous unsavoury incidents. The most notorious incident of this nature over the past month was the second assassination attempt on one of the candidates, former President Donald Trump.

Debates and Polls

Following the withdrawal of the current White House host, Joe Biden, from the presidential race and the subsequent entry of Vice President Kamala Harris as the Democratic Party's nominee, the trend has only strengthened following the debate held on September 10 in Philadelphia. The majority of opinion polls indicate that Harris has a slight advantage over Trump, the Republican candidate. 

A poll conducted by NBC News indicates that the vice president is leading the former president by five points on a national level. In particular, Harris is currently supported by 49% of respondents, compared to 44% who indicate their support for Trump. A poll commissioned by CNN revealed that 48% of Americans expressed support for Harris, while 47% indicated that they intended to vote for Trump. 

Although these results are within the margin of error, they can be considered a success for the Democratic Party. After all, just a few months ago, their candidate (President Biden) was trailing significantly behind his rival. Nevertheless, now Harris appears to have succeeded in reversing the situation, and her narrow lead offers the Democrats a tangible prospect of success. 

It is true that Trump also anticipates victory. Remarkably, the former president justified his decision to abstain from the second debate with Harris on the grounds that it was "too late," given that early voting has commenced in some states, including Pennsylvania. Additionally, he asserted that there was no necessity to engage in further debate with Harris, given that he had already emerged victorious in the initial encounter. In making this assertion, he cited polls indicating his victory in the initial debate. 

It is noteworthy that empirical evidence has repeatedly demonstrated that national polls in the United States do not always accurately predict election outcomes. It is not possible to discuss the concept of accuracy in relation to the American electoral system at this early stage, given the pivotal role played by the Electoral College in representing the states (538 in total). The outcome of the vote is typically decided in so-called "swing" states, where voter preferences may shift suddenly. At the time of writing, there are seven such states. The states of Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Georgia, Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, and Nevada. In these states, as well as at the national level, the results for both candidates are so close that it is challenging to make a prediction regarding the eventual winner. 

Additionally, the thematic aspect of the confrontation between Harris and Trump is worthy of note. Trump's primary focus is on economic, immigration and international political issues. Harris places particular emphasis on the issues of defending democracy, promoting national unity, and protecting reproductive rights. Furthermore, the "problematic" preferences of the candidates also have an impact on their electoral support. For example, those who prioritize economic conditions tend to be more inclined to support Trump.

The attitudes of US presidential candidates towards international issues are worthy of separate discussion. Of particular note is the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. Both Trump and Harris have refuted their opponent's capability to resolve the issue, yet neither has put forth a concrete settlement plan or indicated a path towards ending the war in Gaza. 

The subject of the Russia-Ukraine war has attracted considerably more attention than any other issue. Trump reiterates his assertion that Russia would never have invaded Ukraine had he remained in office after his first term. He asserts that he could resolve the conflict within 24 hours by contacting the leaders of Russia and Ukraine. He persists in his advocacy for the cessation of military aid to Ukraine and has pledged to withdraw the US from the conflict in the event of his election victory. In doing so, he holds President Biden and Vice President Harris responsible for the involvement of the United States in the war in Ukraine and asserts that they are unable to extricate the United States from the conflict. 

Harris and her team have responded to Trump's criticisms by stating that "if the United States were to withdraw its support from Ukraine, Vladimir Putin would be in a position to exert influence over the remainder of Europe and our NATO allies." Furthermore, the stance of the US Democratic administration on the Russian-Ukrainian conflict has been reiterated by President Biden. In his address to the UN General Assembly, he exhorted member states to refrain from "merely standing by silently" and to offer support to Ukraine "in order to preserve its freedom." 

In the context of differing perspectives among US presidential candidates on the provision of military assistance to Kiev and the United States' continued involvement in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, Ukraine has emerged as a focal point in another significant event during this US election race: an attempted assassination of Donald Trump.

An Assassination Attempt and An October Surprise

The incident occurred on September 15 as Trump was departing from a golf club in West Palm Beach, Florida. A security officer from the Secret Service observed a barrel protruding from the foliage of nearby bushes and, upon doing so, discharged his firearm. The assailant fled the scene but was subsequently apprehended by police in a neighbouring county after his vehicle was stopped on a highway. 

The individual was identified as Ryan Wesley Routt, a 58-year-old resident of Hawaii. He has been formally charged with the attempted assassination of a presidential candidate and could receive a sentence of life imprisonment. 

It has been established that Routt was a prolific user of social media, regularly commenting on the conflict in Ukraine and even attempting to enlist foreign volunteers for combat against Russia. His pro-Ukrainian stance is further evidenced by his visits to Kiev and fundraising efforts to support Ukraine. 

These circumstances appear to elucidate the rationale behind the assassination attempt, which was successfully thwarted due to the vigilance of the Secret Service. Trump's opposition to Routt was primarily due to the latter's sceptical views on American aid to Ukraine. 

The response of the White House to this assassination attempt was consistent with the assessment of the Biden administration following a previous attempt on Trump's life. Two months prior to the Routt incident, an assassination attempt was made by 20-year-old Thomas Matthew Crooks during a political rally held by Trump in Pennsylvania. Trump narrowly avoided injury when a bullet grazed his ear. The assailant was neutralised by a security sniper. In the wake of the second assassination attempt on Trump's life, President Biden reaffirmed his stance that political violence has no place in American politics and directed that all necessary resources and protective equipment be made available to guarantee Trump's safety.

Similarly, Kamala Harris, Trump's vice presidential opponent in the forthcoming election, made a comparable assertion. "As we collate the relevant information, I wish to state unequivocally that I condemn political violence. "It is imperative that we collectively strive to prevent any further instances of violence as a result of this incident." 

Trump himself asserted that the recent assassination attempt would not deter him or compel him to withdraw from his campaign. Concurrently, he exploited this incident for explicit campaign purposes. Trump frequently asserts that the intended target is not he, but rather the general public. "I am merely acting as an obstacle to their progress." In these words, he calls upon Americans to support him as a staunch defender of national interests, whom he claims are being sought out by those he refers to as "America's enemies" with the intention of removing him from power.

In the context of this electoral contest, questions arise among Trump's supporters that are worthy of further examination. A particularly noteworthy inquiry was posed by billionaire Elon Musk on the social media platform Twitter. He inquired as to why Trump faces yet another assassination attempt, whereas "no one is trying to kill Biden and Harris."

It is evident that assassination attempts against Trump have become an integral aspect of this increasingly intense presidential race. Nevertheless, it would be a mistake to assume that this factor will have a significant impact on the outcome of the election or lead to a substantial increase in Trump's popularity. It is anticipated by experts that a conventional pre-election "October surprise" may well prove to be the decisive factor in determining the outcome of the election. The term "October surprise" is used to describe events that typically occur in the final month before the November vote, which can have a significant impact on voter decisions. It remains to be seen whether this "October surprise" will materialise in the coming weeks. Regardless, it will undoubtedly add further intrigue to what has already proven to be an exceptionally surprising presidential race in the US.