TRANSFORMATION OF OUTPOST INTO PROTECTORATE

In early December, the repeatedly postponed visit to Armenia by Russian President Vladimir Putin came to pass. Neither its style, nor its content allow the event to be called a "state visit" as was officially declared. As was bitterly noted by Armenian pro-opposition media and ironically by Azerbaijani media, it was more like a "military inspection" or the Russian leader's visit to a subsidized autonomous republic of the Russian Federation. President Putin was dishing out promises and announcing preferences, giving advice and talking both for himself and instead of Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan who was looking ingratiatingly into his eyes.  

President Vladimir Putin's visit began with a trip to the Russian military base in Gyumri. Then he, along with Serzh Sargsyan, attended the ceremony of commissioning the 5th unit of the Hrazdan thermal power station (the project was received in payment of Armenia's debts and completed by [Russian gas giant] Gazprom). Then they laid flowers at the monument to earthquake victims in Spitak and opened the 3rd Russian-Armenian interregional forum. The visit was concluded with a fleeting trip to Yerevan, where they had official talks both in narrow and wide format.

During his visit, President Putin sent several important messages. He said that the Eurasian Economic Commission is intensively harmonizing documents and that Russia will do its utmost to make the process of Armenia's accession to the Customs Union as efficient as possible. Putin emphasized that Russia is not going to leave the region. On the contrary, it is going to build up and strengthen its positions. The presence of Russian troops on the Armenian land serves to strengthen stability and security in the South Caucasus, Putin said. He noted that Russia welcomes resumption of direct contacts between the leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan. "We will strongly contribute to this within the OSCE Minsk Group. One would like to see the region's problems being resolved not by the use of weapons but through diplomacy, through arrangements acceptable to all the countries," he said. Answering Armenian journalists' questions, President Vladimir Putin refused to talk even hypothetically about Russia's steps in case war was resumed. 

After the talks in Yerevan, 12 documents were signed which in essence secured Armenia's fast binding to Russia. These include a plan for consultations between the Foreign Ministries of the two countries for 2014-2015, an agreement between the governments on cooperation in the field of nuclear safety and an agreement to establish an Armenian-Russian presidential council. From now on, President Serzh Sargsyan will take no major decisions concerning Armenia without Russia's consultations and "advice". It was so before but now the existing "patron-vassal" configuration of relations has been institutionalized. 

As far as financial and economic issues are concerned, Russia and Armenia signed an intergovernmental agreement cancelling export duties on gas, oil and rough diamonds supplied to Armenia. Gazprom will deliver 2.5bn cubic metres of gas priced at 189 dollars to Armenia annually in 2014-2018. Under the same agreement, Gazprom has received, in payment of Armenia's accumulated debt, 20 per cent of shares in ArmRosGazprom previously controlled by the Armenian government. Now Gazprom has become a 100 per cent monopolist on the local gas market. A government representative may be present at ArmRosGazprom board meetings taking critical decisions but only in an advisory capacity. 

Quite similarly the cancellation of 35 per cent export duty on oil products supplied to Armenia was accompanied by singing an agreement between Rosneft [Russian oil company] and Oil Techno, a specially established Armenian joint stock company. It will create a network of depots and filling stations to sell Russian oil products supplied to Armenia. In practical terms, this means that Rosneft will gain monopoly positions in Armenia in return for relatively low prices for petrol and diesel fuel supplies. The duty-free supply of Russian diamonds is practically direct support to Serzh Sargsyan's own business (much like petrol supplies, though). It was apparently his clan that needed all those preferences and discounts which will change little for ordinary Armenian consumers. 

Vladimir Putin's visit to Armenia paid immediately after the Eastern Partnership summit of the European Union in Vilnius and his ostentatious generosity towards Armenia can be viewed as indirectly addressed to Ukraine. There is fierce confrontation there between the opposition calling for signing the association agreement with the European Union immediately, and the government of Viktor Yanukovych who has taken a break in this matter under the Kremlin's influence. The Kremlin may tighten supply conditions and prices for natural gas and oil and restrict access for Ukrainian goods to the Russian market. Moscow is using obedient Armenia as an example to make it clear that one's path to cheap energy lies through joining the Customs Union with Russia followed by placing one's oil and gas infrastructure under its control.

Armenian opposition media make no secret of feeling humiliated by the way the visit of Russian President Vladimir Putin to Armenia is arranged. They cite words said by Russian journalists who arrived with Putin. One of them said that Armenia has surrendered itself lock, stock and barrel. Another one (Vadim Dubnov) described it as the most obsequious partner of Russia. In his article entitled "Is compromise possible?" and published on the Lragir.am website, Igor Muradyan, a political scientist known for his pathological hatred towards Azerbaijanis and Turks and now a tough critic of the Sargsyan government's pro-Russian course, stated explicitly that "There is just no Armenia on the international scene. This is no exaggeration. This is an underrepresented reality." 

Despite the authorities' efforts to create a backdrop of universal joy in the Russian president's visit to Yerevan, there were people who dared protest against the "vassalization" of Armenia. They organized a rally upon Vladimir Putin's arrival in Yerevan which involved several hundred people and caught attention by its slogans, if not its mass scale. Activists chanted: "Serzhik is traitor", "Go to your Putin", "Armenia without Putin!", "Stop, Russia!" and carried anti-government and anti-Russian placards. Police stopped the action and several demonstrators were arrested during the clashes. 

Such protests are quite understandable. After all, what is happening is not just a severe erosion of Armenia's state sovereignty but its actual transformation from Russia's "outpost" into its direct protectorate. By pursuing a policy of territorial claims and hostility towards its neighbours, the country's incumbent authorities have driven themselves into such a difficult geopolitical and economic situation that they just cannot carry on without direct support from Russia. But what does Russia gain? The money spent on Armenia, although not so much, give actually nothing to Russia as a state. It just needs no outpost or protectorate in Armenia. 

Indeed, in military terms, an outpost is a fortified position located deep behind enemy lines that the attacking side intends to use as a foothold for expanding the area under its control. Taking into account the many years of demographic decline, its economic difficulties and limited financial and military resources, territorial expansion is not a relevant task for Russia today. Therefore it needs not outposts but good-neighbourly relations with its bordering states. The role of such a friendly zone in the Caucasus could be played by Georgia and Azerbaijan rather than by Armenia having no common border with Russia.