ELECTIONS AT A TIME OF WAR

Presidential and municipal elections have been held in the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan. They were marked by the first change of power by way of a nationwide ballot in Afghan history. Eight candidates stood for the top state post in Afghanistan. According to the early election results, Ashraf Ghani Ahmadzai, the former Finance Minister, has won with about 60 per cent of the vote. The former Foreign Minister Abdullah Abdullah was second. Both candidates are leading by a short head, and it is quite possible that immediately after the final results are announced, which is expected to be not later than 14 May, Ahmadzai and Abdullah will be allowed to take part in a second round of voting (if this is declared, of course).

However, many interested forces, both in Afghanistan and abroad, without waiting for the official declaration of the results of the elections, are saying that the very fact that they took place is an epochal event in the history of one of the most long-suffering countries of the Islamic East.

The incumbent Afghani President Hamid Karzai, who did not take part in the elections because according to the Constitution he is not allowed to stand for a third term, thanked his fellow-citizens for their active participation in the voting.

UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon said the elections in Afghanistan were an important step towards the first democratic handover of power in the country's history. He also singled out the broad participation of women in the election, which will enable them to decide the country's fate on a par with men.

US President Barack Obama also expressed his admiration for the Afghan people. At the same time, he noted the "extreme importance" of the elections for "ensuring Afghanistan's democratic future and also the continuation of international support".

There are, indeed, compelling reasons for such glowing appraisals. Although over 3,000 complaints were received about the way the elections were run, the Afghan authorities and international observers are confident they will not be considered a reason to revise the election results. The main thing is that the elections took place because there was a turnout of about 58 per cent. This shows that the people of Afghanistan want real change. They are tired of war, foreign occupation and bloody domestic conflicts and decided to support the elections despite numerous threats, mainly from radical Islamists.

In the run-up to the elections the Taliban warned they would do everything possible to disrupt them. And, indeed, some people were killed. One of the most recent was the well-known war photographer, Anja Niedringhaus, who was shot in the town of Khost in south-east Afghanistan, near the border with Pakistan. This was by no means the first murder of a representative of the media during the preparations for the presidential elections in Afghanistan. In March, France Press reporter Sardar Ahmad was killed in Kabul: he was one of nine people killed by the Taliban during an attack on a hotel. The Swedish radio correspondent Nils Horner was also shot by the Taliban in the Afghan capital.

But the Taliban failed to disrupt the elections. However, this doesn't stop them disputing the fact that the elections were valid. The Taliban leaders claim that the turn-out was less than 10 per cent. But some of the Taliban realise that their movement is no longer a key factor of influence on the situation in the country. Experts do not rule out cooperation between the leaders of the moderate Taliban and the new government which will be formed after the elections. NATO and the US, who are withdrawing troops of the multi-national coalition from Afghanistan, have a vested interest in this. The West sees a dialogue with the Taliban as a means of the complete and final stabilization of the situation in this country; not to mention the much more strategic aim of NATO and the US - turning Afghanistan into the West's ally. After all, Afghanistan borders with Iran and Pakistan and is the heart of Central Asia, and therefore control over this country means power over one of the strongholds of Eurasia.

But how real is the westernization of Afghanistan? The West is by no means confident that the new Afghan president will play by its rules. Even the avowed American henchman Hamid Karzai was able to stand up to the West's excessive influence. It was because of Karzai's uncompromising attitude that the American-Afghan security agreement was not signed.

It is true that the general geopolitical background around Afghanistan has changed somewhat, and the reason, strange as it may seem, is the events in far-off Ukraine. The increase in tension in relations between the US and Russia, which was caused by the Ukrainian crisis, could also hinder the West's Afghan plans. Up to now the US has seen Russia as an important partner in the process of the withdrawal of its military contingent from Afghanistan. And now Washington fears, not without reason, that Russia, in retaliation for the sanctions imposed by the United States and the European Union against her, will close its territory for the transportation of the West's military forces.

A report by Pentagon representatives, who are predicting that in the event of a further deterioration of relations with the Kremlin Washington will be forced to seek other routes for moving a considerable part of its heavy equipment from Afghanistan, leading to huge expenditure on fuel, is also of interest in this regard.

Meanwhile, Russia itself is seriously worried about another possible scenario. If the attempts to stabilize the situation in Afghanistan fail and further problems arise over the withdrawal of western troops, the US may direct the militant energies of the Taliban to the north, clearly to loosen Russia's positions in post-Soviet Central Asia. It was not by chance that Russian President Vladimir Putin expressed concern at the consequences of the withdrawal of foreign troops from Afghanistan, stressing that destabilization threatens the whole Central Asian region, including Russia's traditional partners. Interestingly, Putin promised to provide every support to the latter. In this connection it is worth considering the Kremlin's initiative on a joint countermeasure to the terrorist threat within the framework of such organizations as the CIS, the CSTO [Collective Security Treaty Organiza-tion] and the SCO [Shanghai Cooperation Organization]. And this means that Moscow, aiming to minimize the possible risks of a further development of the situation in Afghanistan, is preparing to step up its military cooperation with such powers as China and Iran. In this case the US could create another headache for Russia - the expected increased activity of the West in the South Caucasus, a region which the United States sees as a strategically vital element linking Europe and the Middle East with Central Asia and Afghanistan. And, by all accounts, in many ways it is precisely with the object of sounding out this scenario that US Secretary of State John Kerry is preparing to visit Azerbaijan, one of the key states on the Eurasian crossroads, the leading country of the South Caucasus.