PLAYING AT GETTING AHEAD

Yet another abrupt turnabout in the country's internal politics is being discussed in Armenia. Prime Minister Tigran Sargsyan has handed in his resignation, which was announced by the deputy speaker of the parliament, RPA spokesman Eduard Sharmazanov, after the session of the Executive body of the ruling Republican Party of Armenia [RPA].

It must be said that many people in Armenia had predicted that Tigran Sargsyan would resign. What is more, on his Facebook page the now ex-prime minister reported that he had given in his resignation back in February, but a decision on his resignation was not taken at that time owing to "a number of important economy-related events". Eduard Sharmazanov explained that there had been some issues relating to membership of the [Russian-backed] Customs Union, owing to which President Serzh Sargsyan had asked his prime minister to wait another month.

It is unlikely that the Armenian media had any problem in seeking explanations for the prime minister's resignation, albeit varying in the extent to which they were convincing. Many observers feel sure that the growing discontent among the country's citizens in connection with incipient pension reform played no small part in this. It should be recalled that from 1 January 2014 a compulsory pensions savings scheme was introduced in Armenia. This new scheme applied to all citizens born after 1 January 1974. In compliance with the law, everyone who is working has to make a monthly savings contribution equivalent to five per cent of their wages, while a further five per cent, but not more than 25,000 drams (60 dollars at the present exchange rate) is to be contributed by the state. The "pension innovations" have evoked a wave of protest in the country. Participants in the protests have stated that they are not convinced that they will get that money back once they reach pension age and that they do not wish to give up that money "for nothing". The protests have been sufficiently serious in scale, and, what is more, the Constitutional Court of Armenia has acknowledged that a number of the clauses in the law "On the compulsory pension savings scheme" are invalid. Taking all of this into account, one can draw the conclusion that those in power are trying to combat the wave of unrest with the help of the prime minister's resignation.

It is also possible that this resignation is a move in the "game of getting ahead". Thus, the four opposition factions in Armenia's parliament had previously stated that at the session of the legislative body on 28 April they intend to declare a vote of no confidence in the government and demand the resignation of the prime minister who is, in their view, responsible for the failure of the country's economic policy. They have also objected to the introduction by the government of the compulsory pension savings scheme. The Armeniapresident stands to get fairly little "moral gain" out of this, but in the specific conditions in Yerevan he cannot afford to ignore it. 

As one might expect, in Yerevan they have recalled the most notorious political skirmish of recent times. At the end of last year Armenia's second president, Robert Kocharyan, attacked Tigran Sargsyan, criticising him for the catastrophic state of the country's economy. The accusations were so serious, and the prime minister's replies so unconvincing that even at that time many considered his resignation a foregone conclusion. All the more so, since the Armenian president did not hasten to "defend" his own head of government either. Nor did the residents of Yerevan fail to notice the extremely notorious "off-shore controversy", in which the prime minister was one the main figures involved. It was quite convincingly said that the head of the Control Chamber of Armenia, Ishkhan Zakaryan, had a hand in the resignation of Tigran Sargsyan. Many noted traces of foreign, namely Russian, involvement in Sargsyan's resignation.

But in the early days after the prime minister's resignation spokesmen for the Armenian authorities began to deny this and assure people that this was not done by order of foreign forces. Moreover it was precisely Tigran Sargsyan that many experts regarded as the leader of "the pro-Western forces" in Armenia'sruling "team", and not without grounds either. They clearly recall how he referred to Armenia's membership of the Customs Union as pointless, when it does not share a single frontier with any of the Union's member-states. This scenario was denied in Armenia. "Naturally, there is no connection, since Armenia's membership of the Customs Union is a political decision, and we believe that Armenia will join the Customs Union within the agreed and scheduled deadline," the press secretary Eduard Sharmazanov stated at that time. But the very fact that such rumours are circulating is obvious proof that Armenia has essentially lost its actual independence, even when it comes to appointing its officials.

According to the Armenian Constitution, the president should present the candidate for new prime minister within 10 days. But they have not been in any hurry in Yerevan, and many regard this as a real sign of increasing political horse trading. Moreover, the forecasts that they would already have named the new head of government on 10 April have not come true either. As agreed, [President] Serzh Sargsyan held consultations with the leaders of the parties and then with the leadership of his own Republican Party, but, in spite of expectations, he did not name the new head of government, having advised that they should wait a while.

The intrigue was an extremely feeble one: it had been predicted that the speaker of the parliament, Hovik Abrahamyan, would be proposed for the post. Previously, there were plenty of forecasts that Robert Kocharyan, who had already been prime minister, would head the Cabinet of Ministers. Other candidates were also suggested.

Against the backdrop of a certain sensation, a report appeared in the "Zhokhovurd" newspaper that the speaker of the Armenian parliament, Hovik Abrahamyan, was, on the one hand, preparing his staff to take over work in the government, while, on the other hand, he had decided to "up the bidding" for himself. "According to our information, on the days when Abrahamyan was asked if he wanted to become prime minister, he said in an extremely dissatisfied manner, "There's hardly enough money left in the budget to pay six weeks' wages. How could I join the government, when things are like that?" But the head of the information and public relations directorate of the National Assembly, Goar Pogosyan, denied this report,""Zhokhovurd" notes.

There can be no denying that the leak is indicative. Although he has not taken the post of prime minister, Hovik Abrahamyan, has made an extremely sober assessment of Armenia's political situation, even if he has not tried to make out that he has a miraculous recipe for extricating the country from the crisis. It is already being said in Armenia that things will not get any better with a new prime minister than they were with the previous one. It is obvious that political decisions aimed at normalising relations with Armenia's closest neighbours are needed if the country is to get itself out of the crisis. But, just as before, Yerevan does not have the political will to do this. In these circumstances, the position of prime minister, which was quite recently regarded as a "springboard" to the presidential seat, is already being regarded as a step towards political suicide.