A DEMONSTRATIVE CRISIS

- In response to the murder of Israeli teenagers, Israel is conducting a military operation in the Gaza Strip. Usually, the Mossad uses guns fitted with silencers or drone strikes to respond to the acts of killing of Jews, so why is a massive bombardment of Gaza being conducted this time?

- First of all, it is necessary to find out why the heightening of tension between Israel and Hamas, which controls the Gaza Strip, has taken place right now. There are two main reasons. Exactly one year ago, the Egyptian military ousted the Islamist government led by Morsi, who helped Hamas, provided supplies as well as logistical and political support to this organisation. The new authorities in Egypt carry out a policy that is opposite to the policy of the Islamists and, among other things, they stopped supporting Hamas. Earlier, the Arabs cut off Hamas from Iran because of Tehran's support for the Syrian government. Left without the sponsorship of Iran and Egypt, Hamas has found itself in isolation. The organisation has come to be in a sorry state in all respects, including its financial state. Hamas did not even have the money to pay for the work of government officials in the Gaza Strip, who organised a mutiny. It should be added that because of its position in the Syrian conflict, Hamas suffered obstruction from Iran. Gradually losing political influence and financial resources, Hamas became the object of discontent on the part of the Palestinians. Dissatisfaction with the government of Hamas, the threat of unrest, etc. was steadily growing among the residents of the Gaza Strip. All this has made Hamas to form a coalition with Fatah and participate in the formation of a government of national unity. However, this step has not ensured Hamas against further shocks as the coalition with Fatah meant recognition of the peace process with Israel and the establishment of two states - Israel and Palestine; whereas the Hamas statute provides for the destruction of the Jewish state and the establishment of a Palestinian state on the entire territory of historic Palestine - from the Jordan River to the Mediterranean Sea. There was a risk that militant Hamas members angered by the coalition with Fatah might go over to other terrorist organisations. In this situation, Hamas leaders have decided to demonstrate their resolve to engage in dialogue with Israel from a position of strength. To this end, they had to arrange a demonstrative crisis. In doing so, Hamas wanted not only to restore its tarnished image, but also to preserve its self-sufficiency and independence from Fatah. They went even so far as the abduction and murder of Jewish children, to which Israel responded with limited pinpoint strikes against militant positions in Gaza, while Hamas began to intensify missile attacks on Israeli towns. That's the result of a deliberate escalation of the situation and we have what we have in the Gaza Strip.

- Does Israel benefit from this confrontation?

- For Israel, this conflict is in the nature of the struggle for existence, to a certain extent. Much depends on the mood of the people. Israelis may get tired of the endless attacks and local wars and begin to leave the country. Hamas and other organisations are counting on the fact that Israel's resources will gradually be depleted. This has not happened so far. Israel responds to missile attacks selectively and quite effectively.

- Can new sponsors of Hamas - the Gulf States - enter the arena instead of Iran? Judging by the events in Iraq, those who enjoy support of Saudi Arabia and Qatar achieve military success...

- Few can become sponsors of Hamas in the Arab world. From among the Gulf monarchies, only Qatar has expressed readiness to help this organisation. All others including Saudi Arabia and the UAE are against providing support for Hamas because of its friendship with the Muslim Brotherhood. The truth is that Hamas is actually part of the international organisation Muslim Brotherhood, which is considered to be a threat to the monarchy regimes. The Persian Gulf countries would not seek to isolate Hamas completely, but would rather try to subordinate it by means of some limited help. This should not be seen as encouragement or sponsorship of the organisation, rather as an attempt to reason with it and bring it under control.

- The IDF has launched a land operation in the Gaza Strip. What consequences will this step entail?

- The introduction of troops is usually followed by the cleaning-up of the ground from militants. In any case, the land operation is fraught with even greater casualties among the civilian population of Gaza. Hamas acts like a typical terrorist organisation, sending ahead women and children who throw stones at the soldiers. Terrorists shoot from behind civilians, which complicates the advancement of troops and the accuracy of firing at militants.

- How come that hundreds, perhaps thousands of missiles are getting into Gaza despite the blockade on the part of Israel?

- The blockade is maintained in respect of strategic goods and weapons. Humanitarian goods were delivered and continue to be delivered into Gaza. Most of the missiles were supplied to Hamas in the time of active interaction with Iran. Some of the missiles available in Gaza are home-made, assembled by local artisans. Such missiles are short-ranged. A certain number of missiles are smuggled into Gaza through the Sinai Peninsular.

- What will happen to the peace negotiation process between Israel and Palestine? This process was actively supported by the United States...

- This process is proverbially dead and buried for the time being. However, the negotiations will soon be resumed under US pressure. The negotiating partner is not Hamas, but Fatah, headed by Mahmoud Abbas. It is most likely that the Israeli-Palestinian negotiations will be reanimated after a while.

- In general, is a long-term peace between the Jews and the Arabs possible in the Middle East?

- For now, it is not clear how to solve this conflict. The fact is that there is no reliable partner on the Palestinian side who not only would have signed the agreement, but would ensure its implementation. Fatah is engaged in peaceful negotiations, seemingly demonstrates aspirations to peaceful coexistence with Israel, while Hamas is belligerent and shells Israeli towns. It turns out that one part of the people is in favour of peace and the other part is in favour of war.

- Is there any connection between the current Israel-Hamas incident, the civil war in Syria, and the armed rebellion of the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) in Iraq?

- There is no direct connection, but there is an indirect connection. The conflict in Syria has reached a level of fundamental contradictions, such as the relationship between the Shiites and the Sunnis, Israel and Hamas; earlier, this was characteristic of the confrontation between the great powers. That is, one basic conflict creates a favourable environment for other conflicts in the neighbouring countries: the degradation of Hamas status in Gaza, the ISIL attack in Iraq, and others. There is a certain relationship here, but it is not the most important factor. Had it not been for the Syrian conflict, the tension between Israel and Hamas would manifest itself for another reason, as was the case in 2009 and 2012.

- How will the conflict between Israel and Hamas unfold in the future?

- The scheme is well known. The intermediaries will impose a cease-fire. The parties to the conflict will need some time to "calm down," then start building bridges, etc.