18 May 2024

Saturday, 10:18

DISAGREEMENTS SETTLED

An R+ interview with director of the Institute for Caspian Cooperation (Russia) Sergey Mikheyev

Author:

07.10.2014

- What was the most important thing accomplished at the Astrakhan summit of the heads of state of the Caspian states?

- At the Astrakhan meeting of the five presidents of the Caspian countries the very important issue of the division of the Caspian's aquatic territory - and, partially, its sea floor - was solved. That makes up 70 per cent of the entire issue of determining the Caspian's legal status. The primary disagreements have been settled, and the parties have come to a general compromise. 

- But the issue of dividing the sea floor - that is, the areas beneath the seafloor, where the Caspian's reserves of hydrocarbons are located - remains unresolved?

- What has already been accomplished and the understanding shown by the five Caspian-bordering states gives reason to believe that in the next two or three years the Caspian states will come to a consensus on the division of the Caspian sea floor as well.

- The primary impediments to the resolution of the Caspian's status were Turkmenistan, which spoke out against the division of the Caspian, and Iran, which demanded a larger maritime zone than the one laid out in the Soviet-Iranian treaty….

- With the signing of the Astrakhan declaration, all of the obstacles laid by Iran and Turkmenistan have been swept aside. Having agreed to the terms for partition indicated in the agreement, Ashgabat and Tehran have de facto removed all of their prior claims to their national zones in the Caspian.

- In the past few years Iran has threatened to deploy high-speed warships and submarines in the Caspian, even though according to the defunct Soviet-Iranian treaty Iran cannot maintain warships on the Caspian. Will the agreement guarantee demilitarization of the Caspian?

- The primary threat to security is not posed by the Caspian-bordering states, but by external forces. A guarantee to security lies in the agreement's stipulation that the military presence of forces outside the five Caspian-bordering states is unacceptable. First, the risk of conflict between the countries bordering the Caspian is minimal. Second, the leaders of the Russian Federation, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, and the Islamic Republic of Iran have declared their obligation to maintaining a military presence on the Caspian that does not exceed reasonable bounds. Consultations on security issues will continue. If tensions arise between the Caspian-bordering states, these problems will be resolved in five-party talks. The surest route to solving possible conflicts would be taking the discussions to the level of five-party discussions. This gives a greater guarantee that the tension will be resolved. In particular, a five-party platform for issue resolution may be created.  

- Doesn't such an ambitious project as the laying of a gas pipeline from Turkmenistan to Azerbaijan on the floor of the Caspian conflict with the Astrakhan agreement?  

- There are no signs that the Astrakhan declaration in any way excludes the execution of trans-Caspian projects. Understandably, the Russian Federation and Iran have their own positions regarding the laying of a gas pipeline on the floor of the Caspian. But this issue can be resolved by a compromise in the course of five-party talks.


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