TWO MEN IN MILAN

The Ukrainian crisis remains at the centre of attention of international politics. It was one of the main topics of discussion at the ASEM forum (Asia-Europe Meeting) in Milan, where the key event was the meeting between the presidents of Russia and Ukraine, Vladimir Putin and Petro Poroshenko.

The talks in Milan were preceded by a meeting of the heads of the foreign policy departments of the US and Russia, John Kerry and Sergey Lavrov, in Paris. It was the Ukrainian question, or more specifically the prospects for the implementation of the Minsk Agreement of 5 September, which provided for a cease-fire in Eastern Ukraine, that was the central item at the negotiations between the US Secretary of State and the Russian Foreign Minister.

Judging from the restrained statements of Lavrov and Kerry, they failed to reach any kind of serious compromise at the negotiations. Relations between the major nuclear powers are clearly on a downward path towards even more confrontation, and the Ukrainian crisis, to which there seems no end at the moment, is only straining differences between Washington and Moscow even more.

Although the Russian minister stressed that the meeting with John Kerry was useful to him, he countered this by saying that there was no sign from the Americans of a desire to lift the sanctions against Russia which were imposed because of the Ukrainian crisis. A direct dialogue between the Russian and Ukrainian leaders could have had a greater effect in reaching a peaceful settlement to the Ukrainian crisis.

Vladimir Putin and Petro Poroshenko met a total of three times at the ASEM summit, which drew more than 50 leaders from Europe and Asia. The first meeting took place during a working breakfast and was attended by - as well as the Russian and Ukrainian leaders - Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi; French President Francois Hollande; German Chancellor Angela Merkel; British Prime Minister David Cameron; President of the European Union Herman van Rompuy and Chairman of the European Commission Jose Manuel Barroso. The meeting at the breakfast table was confined to general remarks about the need to fulfil the agreements on the truce in Donbass. And although they tried to convince the curious press that the meeting was "good and positive" and was "an important step" in the discussion of the situation in Ukraine, they were not satisfied. The fact is there has not been any real breakthrough over the question of a cease-fire in Ukraine.

The next meeting between Putin and Poroshenko was held in the hotel residence of the Russian delegation, with Angela Merkel and Francois Hollande joining the Russian and Ukrainian leaders to make up a foursome. It turned out to be far more productive, but still not on the main issue - achieving a peace agreement in Ukraine as soon as possible. Incidentally, the subject discussed by the foursome (and not only during this meeting in the hotel but also in the context of the whole ASEM forum) is extremely topical in the run-up to the European winter, because it concerns Russian gas supplies to the EU via Ukrainian territory. The European leaders expressed their interest in the fact that Moscow and Kiev had agreed on fuel supplies in the nearest future. And, by all accounts, they may be satisfied because after the talks the Russian president made it clear that agreement had been reached on the conditions for the resumption of gas supplies to Ukraine "at least for" the winter period. In other words, the negotiations on the financing of Ukraine's payment for the gas could be regarded as successfully completed. Although one thing remains unresolved. Putin said that Russia reckons that the European Union will back its "Ukrainian partners" and will help them either with credit or providing another tranche from the IMF. "We cannot provide a loan for gas any more," the Russian president summed up. And so we can soon expect reports on exactly how the European Union will provide guarantees of purchases of Russian gas through Ukraine. 

The future of peace in Ukraine depended on the one-on-one meeting between Putin and Poroshenko. From the statements of the two sides after the meeting one may conclude there is a real chance of a peace settlement of the Ukrainian crisis being achieved. Which says a good deal when you consider how acute the whole political situation in Ukraine has been and the Cold War-like geopolitical confrontation that has evolved around it.

Vladimir Putin described the law on the status of Donbass, which was signed by the Ukrainian president, as "a step in the right direction" (although, the Russian leader said, it is not "an ideal law"). It is a matter of a document which provides for the formation of local self-government in "certain parts of Donetsk and Luhansk Regions" over the course of three years "taking specific features into account". Among other things, it is proposed to considerably extend the rights of local self-government in this region.

However, representatives of the so-called "people's republics" of Donetsk and Luhansk, who are insisting that the territories mentioned in Petro Poroshenko's act are not part of Ukraine, have stated that they do not recognize this law. Conspicuous is the fact that during the Milan talks the Russian president several times described the Ukrainian territories controlled by the pro-Russian rebels as New Russia. This is, essentially, a gesture of the Kremlin's moral and political support for the "DPR" and the "LPR". In the practical sense, granting Donetsk and Luhansk Regions the status of autonomies within Ukraine would suit Russia perfectly well. And it seems as if Putin, at the talks with Poroshenko, is trying to get Kiev to enter into a direct dialogue with the separatists. The Ukrainian authorities, however, are insisting that the starting points of a settlement must be a cessation of Moscow's military aid to the rebels and the recall of Russian volunteers fighting on the separatist side. Besides this, the list of Kiev's demands includes a complete halt to hostilities by the separatists and the monitoring of the Russian-Ukrainian border by European observers. It is obvious that there is not even a hint in Kiev's position of the idea put forward by Moscow of the "DPR" and the "LPR" being drawn into the talks process, and consequently, any practical recognition of the legal standing of these self-proclaimed formations.

Despite the radical differences that still exist in the approaches by Moscow and Kiev, one can still sense there are points of contact in the question of the mechanism of achieving a cease-fire. By this I mean the possibility of creating a demarcation line between the combatants. One of the obstacles along this path is the fact that members of the families of Donbass rebels continue to remain in the populated areas which, according to the Minsk agreements, extend beyond Kiev's control. Putin "pushed" this very point when trying to reach agreement on the question of the demarcation line.

One of the obvious achievements of the Milan negotiations was the agreement on control over the demarcation line with the aid of drones. Russia, France and Italy will take part in the surveillance of the situation. It has not been ruled out that in the next few days representatives of the countries involved will meet in Vienna to discuss technical issues linked with monitoring the demarcation line. So, the hope that the Milan meeting between Presidents Putin and Poroshenko will enable Moscow and Kiev to draw closer in their positions on the question of reaching a comprehensive peace in Ukraine and a complete and irrevocable cease-fire between the Ukrainian security forces and the pro-Russian rebels has been partially fulfilled. In a sense, this is unsurprising because beyond the rift between Russia and Ukraine lies a much broader conflict - between Russia and the West. The West's increasing sanctions against Russia are a manifestation of this conflict. And although nothing was spoken about them during the ASEM summit, it is clear that the task of lifting the sanctions is one of the most crucial for Russian diplomacy at this moment in time. Just as maintaining the old and introducing new economic sanctions remains the only instrument of pressure on Moscow for the West.

The geopolitical choice of official Kiev, which has placed its stakes on integration into the Euro-Atlantic structures, remains a key contradiction in the approaches of Russia, on the one hand, and the USA and the European Union on the other, to the question of the future of Ukraine. The latter doesn't suit Moscow or that part of Ukrainian society which is drawn towards Russia and its plans for Eurasian integration.

Ukraine is not the only bone of contention in American-Russian relations. However, it is clear that the development of this crisis, which is influencing the geo-political situation all over the post-Soviet area, will remain, at least in the foreseeable future, a key area of confrontation between the USA and Russia. If for no other reason than for Russia this is the last, fateful frontier of protection of its high-power interests within its own borders, and in the broader sense - the whole area of its traditional influence.