INTO THE EU WITHOUT DONBASS

- The self-proclaimed Donetsk and Luhansk People's Republics recently held elections for their heads of state and parliament. Those elections were not recognized by Kiev or the international community.What consequences will these elections have for the people of these self-proclaimed republics in southeast Ukraine?

- First, the EU now has no intention of canceling its sanctions against Russia, which they had earlier planned to consider canceling. Second, the Ukraine will cease all payments tothepopulation of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts. People will be faced with a decision: remain on occupied territory and make it on their own in those conditions, or leave for those regions of the country where the Ukrainian government's laws are in force. At the same time the Ukraine maybill the separatists for the electricity it provides them. And since they have nothing with which to pay for it,they will not pay for it, and soon these regions will have their heating, lighting, etc. cut off. Providing Donbass with energy becomes Russia's problem. In other words, Kiev is proposing that the people of Donbass leave the zones of occupation, and those who remain will do so by personal choice, thereby taking personal responsibility for their own survival.

- Has the government of the Ukraine abandoned the Minsk Protocol, which gave the Donbass special status?

- A law on a special form of self-government in Donbass was passed before the elections. President Poroshenko has now stated that after the illegitimate elections in the south and southeast, Kiev will review this law and abandon its enforcement. Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts will be considered temporarily-occupied territory, and the funding to these regions will be suspended. Nevertheless, a plan is being prepared to restore sovereignty over these regions, and it will be passed by the new coalition in the new Verkhovna Rada.

- How high are the odds that the war in eastern Ukraine will break out again?

- Percentagewise, thelikelihoodofrenewedhostilities is 30 per cent. Sotheprobability that war will begin anew is very low.

- Is there the possibility that the self-proclaimed "people's republics" will continue to exist in the Ukraine?

- That's possible only if there's a full-scale Russian invasion. Today the Ukrain ianarmyandsecurityservicesare completely prepared to contain the spread of separatism. Fully-armed Ukrainian securityforcesare ready to put a stop to any attack from within or attempts to "rock the boat" in other regions. However, if there is a full-scale invasion from Russia, anything could happen. Seizure of Kharkiv oblast being first and foremost.

- In your opinion, what would have been the cost of the new Ukrainian administration federalizing the country?

- The separatists would have agreed to federalization, but the Ukrainian government definitely would not have taken such a step. The government prefers to isolate those territories and establish a real border. Ukraine does not want the war to begin anew and has an interest in freezing the conflict in Donbass. Federalization would keep Ukraine from entering the European Union.The current government in Kiev believes that it's better to relinquish these territories and be in the European commonwealth than to become a federal state and remain outside the EU.

- What outcome of events in the Ukraine could Russia set up? How do see Russia's ultimate goal in the processes going on within the Ukraine?

- Russia does not want the Ukraine to break up. It needs all of the Ukraine as Novorossiya. From the Russian border to the BlackSea.

- With the inclusion of international organizations and foreign mediators in the settlement of the Nagornyy Karabakh conflict, endless talks have dragged on for twenty years. Is a similar scenario in store for the Ukraine?

- You're absolutely right. By the most optimistic estimates the Ukraine will be able to reestablish control over Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts in five years, although it is completely possible that the issue of restoring sovereignty over these regions will drag on for decades. We consider these territories to be lost for many years or even gone forever.