THE "TURKISH MARCH" FOR THE ARMENIAN LOBBY

The Armenian lobbyists in the USA have announced yet another event. At its annual banquet in December, the Western branch of the Armenian National Committee of America is to pay tribute posthumously to the human rights champions, Henry Morgenthau, Cleveland Dodge and Jackie Coogan, who, in collaboration with the Middle East Assistance Foundation, helped orphaned children and refugees during the "Armenian genocide" and after it in 1915-1930. The [Armenian] newspaper "Asbarez" writes that " the most famous American political figure in history, who came out in support of the Armenian people was Henry Morgenthau, US ambassador to the Ottoman Empire during the years of the First World War".

"He drew the attention of the international community to the 'Armenian genocide' and organised measures to render assistance in order to save the Armenian people. On behalf of the ambassador, the posthumous award was received by his great-grandson Henry Ben Morgenthau IV. In that epoch, some eminent Americans copied the ambassador's example and combined efforts to render aid to the Armenians who had managed to survive the 'massacre'. It is hardly likely that this aid would have been possible, had it not been for the altruism of the New York philanthropist Cleveland Dodge. Besides this, the Middle East Assistance Foundation, recognising the huge impact made by the mass media, instructed the 'the best known boy in the world' and Hollywood star of that epoch, Jackie Coogan to convey the Foundation's message to the public.

At the beginning of the 1920s, the actor Jackie Coogan, who was a child at that time, used his popularity to promote efforts to render assistance to the starving children in the Middle East," the lobbyists remind us, taking a breath, without specifying whether that was Coogan's own decision or grown-ups just leading him to do it. Naturally, they had their own considerations in mind: there is no need to recall that, in helping the unrestrained advertising surrounding the "Armenian refugees", the "Armenian orphans" and so forth, public opinion was being prepared for the partitioning of the Ottoman Empire in general and the carving out of "Western Armenia" from the six Eastern Anatolian vilayets in particular.

This type of event is indubitably part of the unfolding of the topic of the approaching centenary of the so-called "Armenian genocide". Moreover, if we take into account that during the years of the First World War, for understandable reasons, many influential and well-known persons hastened "to make their mark regarding this subject", the lobbyist's motives are even more evident.

In Turkey, to all appearances, they appear to be quite concerned about the upcoming "genocide" anniversary. There are no obvious signs of revising the main standpoints, but steps which may be called a "humanitarian dialogue" are being undertaken from time to time in Ankara, showing that an invitation to enter dialogue on this most painful of issues still exists. It is another matter that this must be dialogue and not meeting the demands put forward during the First World War years.

One cannot fail to notice that the Armenian lobbyists in the USA are promoting their activity relating to the forthcoming anniversary,a sad one in all senses, in what might be said to be two parallel directions. Not long ago the congressmen known to be connected with the Armenian lobby, including Frank Pallone and Adam Schiff, sent a letter to President Barack Obama in connection with the blowing up of the Armenian church in the Syrian town of Deir-ez-Zor. Moreover, the following political scenario was proposed to the US president and the American audience: they said that Turkey is supporting the fighters of ISIL and that the blowing up of an Armenian church is, they say, a continuation of the "unfortunate topic of the Armenian genocide". 

It is hardly likely, of course, that the congressmen are so naive and do not know that Turkey and the other Western countries have been supporting the moderate Syrian opposition, and by no means ISIL. Moreover, ISIL is not blowing up churches because some-one has prompted them to do so owing to certain events during the First World War. It is because their aggressive fanaticism is applied to both Christians, among whom there are not just Armenians, and Muslims… Therefore, it is unlikely that they will manage to convince the US president of this "scenario".

It should however be noted that all this "activity in parallel directions" is unfolding at a time when they are summing up the results of the new election marathon in the USA. President Obama's Democratic Party was the loser at the mid-term elections to Congress. The Republicans already enjoyed a majority in the House of Representatives, but now they have gained control of the Senate too.

The experts have no doubt that the consequences of this "redistribution of forces" will be more than significant. The Republicans are essentially getting the opportunity to impose their "rules of the game" in the White House. Barack Obama's foreign policy has been subjected to scathing criticism. They have not forgiven him either for his incorrect policy with regard to Egypt, or for his hasty withdrawal of the troops from Iraq, or his rather unproductive policy in Syria, or his excessively, in the view of the Republicans, "lenient attitude" in relation to Russia. Many experts, including Russian experts, do not rule out a toughening of sanctions against the Russian Federation after the elections.

At the same time, any election is always a decisive test of strength for the lobbyist groupings, and the Armenian lobby is no exception to this. At any rate, on the eve of the elections, the Armenian National Committee of America published a list of the candidates supported by them in the elections to the American Congress's House of Representatives and Senate from more than 23 states, who had previously rendered support to them regarding issues of particular interest to American Armenians and friends of Armenia.

Here they explain that the assessments of the Armenian National Committee of America are mainly based on a detailed examination of the service record of each candidate with regard to a an extensive list of Armenian-American issues, ranging from the "just solution of the issue relating to recognition of the Armenian genocide, ensuring the return by Turkey of the property of Armenian and other Christians, to strengthening Armenian-American relations and so forth". But unlike previous US election campaigns, the Armenian media are no longer paying the attention that they did formerly to the results of the American elections from the point of view of the strengthening or, on the contrary, weakening of the positions of the "Armenian lobby", which is noticeable to a lesser extent, especially taking into account the upcoming centenary of the "Armenian genocide".

In Armenia they have evidently already recognised that unrealistic to think that resolutions will be adopted on recognition of the "Armenian genocide". Nor is any particular activity noticeable with regard to the drawing up of another "Armenian resolution". Naturally, some people think that the lobbyists will begin to work with the newly constituted Congress, but experts advise remembering how the last "Armenian resolution" failed to be adopted. This happened when, it seems, they had "their very own people", collaborating or havingcollaborated with the Armenian lobby, at all "stages" ranging from the standing committees and the post of speaker of the House of Representatives to the secretary of state and the president. But, nevertheless, the resolution did not get passed. Taking offence at this, the Armenian lobbyists refused to support Barack Obama in the 2012 elections. They did not give his rival their support either. It was the first time that people had "withdrawn themselves" from the presidential campaign. 

Today the events in Syria and the appearance of the ISIL fighters on the proscenium is providing the Armenian lobbyists with tolerable material for creating adverse propaganda with regard to Turkey and Azerbaijan. Adverse propaganda is one thing, but actual policy is quite another. On the eve of the centenary of the "Armenian genocide" the lobbyists are having to act in a rather difficult situation. For Washington Ankara remains an extremely valuable ally in the Middle East. Especially now when the situation in that region is developing in an unpredictable spiral. Moreover, in Syria and Iraq the USA is supporting the Kurds, which is causing Ankara understandable concern. In Washington they understand that concern, but, nevertheless, they did manage to persuade the Turkish authorities to allow the fighters of the Iraqi Kurdish "Peshmerga" detachments to cross their territory to assist their Syrian fellow tribesmen in Kobani [Syrian city besieged by Islamic State fighters - tr]. Against this backdrop, the USA is simply not able to bring up with Ankara another factor that might cause a rift, like the "Armenian genocide" issue.

Finally, Armenia's ultimate transfer to the "pro-Russian team" might have a part to play against the background of the rapidly deteriorating relations between Washington and Moscow. This is all the more likely to cause the USA to tread cautiously. This means that, whether it likes it or not, the "Armenian lobby" will be forced to listen to the "Turkish march" in the USA's policy. Here it looks like they understand that it would be rather difficult to bring in another "Armenian resolution", even though the centenary is not far off.