A NEW INTIFADA COMING UP SOON?

The Holy Land of three religions is witnessing bloody events again. Another upsurge in the Arab-Israeli conflict is largely due to the ongoing dispute over the status of the "heavenly city" of Jerusalem.

It all started in the first days of November with riots on the Temple Mount in Jerusalem. In ancient times, there was a Jewish temple here, but for hundreds of years the main attraction of this place has been a complex of mosques (Al-Aqsa and Qubbat as-Sakhra), which is the third most important (after the Arabian cities of Mecca and Medina) shrine of the Islamic world.

Israeli security forces carried out raids against Palestinian protesters. And although after the restoration of the order, the Temple Mount was reopened to visitors, tensions have not subsided. The main reason is the unresolved situation around Jerusalem, which leads to constant clashes in the territory of the holy places.

The problem is that in 1967 Israel seized East Jerusalem from Jordan, including the historical centre of the city where not only Judaic, but also Christian and Islamic shrines are located. Later the Jewish state annexed the entire city, proclaiming it its "united and undivided capital", although, according to UN resolutions, East Jerusalem should be the capital of a future independent Palestinian state. For this reason, the international community does not recognize the annexation, continuing to consider Tel Aviv to be the capital of Israel and insisting that the status of Jerusalem should be determined in Palestinian-Israeli peace talks.

The actual policy of Israel aimed at revising the status quo of the area of the Temple Mount, where Al-Aqsa and Qubbat as-Sakhra are located, causes discontent in the Arab world. However, Israel officially denies such plans.

The statement of Jordanian King Abdullah II about "the unacceptability of the provocative acts of Israel and its attacks on shrines in Jerusalem that are under the patronage of the Hashemites", the ruling dynasty in his state, is remarkable.

It is the Jordanian monarch that is the guardian of the shrines of Jerusalem, which is confirmed by the peace treaty with Israel.

In order to defuse the situation around Jerusalem, on 13 November Amman, the capital of Jordan, hosted a trilateral meeting between Jordanian King Abdullah, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and US Secretary of State John Kerry. They agreed on steps to de-escalate the conflict on the Temple Mount. Kerry himself said, "We agreed on real, not rhetorical, steps that can be taken in order to defuse the situation and create an atmosphere in which we can move forward in a positive and constructive way". At the same time, the US state secretary, commenting on the results of the trilateral meeting, added that the Jordanians and Israelis agreed to work together like they have been working since 1967 to de-escalate the situation, and "steps to be taken will make it possible to confirm that the status quo will be maintained".

It is notable that Jordanian Foreign Minister Nasser Judeh stated that Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu reaffirmed "his respect for the role of Jordan as the country responsible for the shrines in Jerusalem, which is indicated in the bilateral peace treaty signed in 1994". There is every reason to believe that this statement is indeed based on real agreements. Immediately after the Amman talks, the Israeli authorities announced an unprecedented "gesture of goodwill", namely, the elimination of the age limit (prohibition for Muslims under the age of 35) to visit Al-Aqsa Mosque.

However, the Palestinians suspect that Israel intends to review the autonomous status of the Temple Mount in favour of the Jews. This is confirmed primarily by the statements of Israeli far right groups insisting on the annexation of Islamic shrines. Pandering to extremist groups, the Israeli leadership allowed orthodox Jews to visit disputed holy sites in Jerusalem. Muslims, in turn, saw this step as a threat to capture the mosques. As result, violent clashes occurred between Palestinians and Israeli security forces in Jerusalem, the Arab villages of Israel, as well as in a number of towns and settlements in the West Bank, not to mention the fact that any attempt to change the status quo in the holy places of Jerusalem is fraught with further bloodshed and escalation of tensions not only in relations between Muslims and Jews of the Heavenly City itself, but also at broader regional and global levels.

However, the development of the current events in the Holy Land already clearly indicates the feasibility of this perspective, which is unacceptable to the region and the world. A series of bloody events sparked another round of escalation in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. The terrorist attack arranged by Palestinian radicals in West Jerusalem, in the religious neighbourhood of Har Nof, where the majority of the population is orthodox Jews, was a bloody tragedy. Criminals armed with knives, axes and guns broke into a synagogue right during a prayer and killed five people. It turned out that three of the victims had dual US-Israeli citizenship and one - British-American. But they were all rabbis. The militants themselves were killed in a police attack. Israeli police sustained casualties too.

According to the preliminary investigation, the criminals were locals from the Arab neighbourhood, Ghassan and Uday Abu Jamal. Israeli media reports that the terrorists who committed the massacre in the synagogue are close relatives of a member of the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP), Jamal Abu Jamal. The latter served a 20-year prison sentence for terrorism and was released from prison late last year. However, a few weeks ago, he was detained by security services and put in jail. The PFLP is part of the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) and is considered the second military and political force of this organization after Fatah. Media also reported that the PFLP was involved in the terrorist attack in the synagogue. However, the organization itself did not officially claim responsibility for the attack.

The reaction of the Palestinian leadership to the tragedy in the synagogue was ambivalent. The head of the Palestinian National Authority (PNA), Mahmud Abbas, condemned the "killing of innocent believers in the Jerusalem synagogue, as well as violence against any other citizens no matter who it comes from". However, the radical Hamas movement called for "acts of resistance" to continue, calling the attack on the synagogue "a response to continued Israeli crimes".

Such a contradiction in the evaluations by the head of the PNA, who is also head of Fatah, and Hamas once again demonstrates that there are serious differences between the two leading Palestinian factions regarding ways to combat Israeli occupation. The union of Fatah and Hamas, which recently agreed on reconciliation and the establishment of a unified national government, annoys Israel, which is using the rapprochement between moderate Palestinian politicians and radicals as an excuse to tighten its policy towards the Palestinian Authority itself. Regarding the terrorist attack in the synagogue, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu promised a "severe response". He ordered that the homes of the terrorists who attacked the synagogue be destroyed and the demolition of the houses of radicals who carried out attacks in recent weeks to be accelerated.

However, not only frequent cases of violence caused a new upsurge in tensions in the Holy Land. Another irritant is the approval by the Israeli authorities of a plan to build 200 homes for Jewish settlers in some parts of Jerusalem. This plan has been condemned by many countries, particularly the United States. But in response, Tel Aviv said that it would never abandon plans to build settlements in East Jerusalem. According to Israeli Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman, the Israeli authorities will never agree with the fact that this activity is called construction of settlements. Therefore, he said, "we will not accept any restrictions on construction in the Jewish neighbourhoods of East Jerusalem".

Considering all the irritants that exacerbate the situation in the region of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict again, experts admit the possibility of a new third Palestinian intifada. Its purpose remains unshakable, the essence of which was mentioned by the head of the PNA, Mahmud Abbas: "It's finally time to end the occupation of Palestinian lands and negotiate a fair settlement of the conflict based on the principle of two states for two peoples."

Meanwhile, no matter how the further developments in the Middle East evolve, the change in the external background of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict becomes clear. Specifically, the European Union raises the question of recognizing the independence of Palestine in a tougher and tougher way. And in the US the realization of the inevitability of this perspective is becoming noticeable. Another question is how all the interested parties will be able to reach a compromise on the most pressing issues of the Middle East settlement, including the status of Jerusalem, and of course, in the interests of both peoples of the Holy Land - Israelis and Palestinians.