THE ARMENIAN IDEE FIXE HAS ENDED IN FAILURE

On one and the same day - 24 April - the centenary of two historically linked events - the Battle of Canakkale and the so-called "Armenian genocide" - was marked in Istanbul and Yerevan. But the aims of these events were in direct opposition.

Turkey organized an impressive act of remembrance for the hundreds of thousands of servicemen of the First World War lost on both sides during the battles on the Gelibolu [Gallipoli] Peninsula and Canakkale. A solemn ceremony that symbolized the reconciliation of former enemies was attended by 21 heads of state, the speakers of three parliaments, five prime ministers and 28 ministers and representatives of international organizations. Among the guests of honour was Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev.

The ceremony began with the laying of a commemorative wreath by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan at the Mehmecik memorial. And the heir to the British throne, Charles, Prince of Wales, laid a wreath at the memorial from the countries of the Allied Powers. A minute's silence in honour of those who died in the fighting at Canakkale was followed by an artillery salute and the Turkish flag was unfurled to the strains of the country's national anthem. Mehmet Gormez, the head of Turkey's Religious Affairs Directorate, followed by a Christian bishop, prayed for the repose of the souls of those who fell in battle and called for peace and fraternity.

Speeches were made by the heir to the British throne, Charles, Prince of Wales, and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. The ceremony was accompanied by a choir of children from various countries who sang "Rousing Song of Peace", as well as a performance by the Turkish Mehter Military Band. After visiting the graves of soldiers killed in the fighting at Canakkale, the heads of state signed the Martyrs' Memorial Book at the Mehmecik memorial. Symbols of reconciliation were a joint march of honour by military formations of the countries of the Allied Powers and the Turkish Armed Forces and a parade of warships of Turkey, Britain, France, Australia and New Zealand. The ceremony ended with a fly-past of the Turkish Stars squadron.

A curious show was organized in Yerevan at which a concert of [Serj] Tankian's System of a Down rock band in the city's central square was combined with a funeral prayer service, and politicians and religious figures rubbed shoulders at the ceremony with the notorious Kim Kardashian, a star of erotic TV shows. The aim of this unnatural mixture of politics and propaganda was to get the tragic and controversial events of 100 years ago finally defined as "genocide" by whatever means possible from large and small countries, international organizations, and whoever else.

Despite all the efforts by official Yerevan and the influential Armenian diaspora, they failed to drag world leaders to this event. Only the presidents of Serbia, Cyprus, France and Russia arrived in Armenia on 24 April. And the latter's president, Vladimir Putin, only did so after some hesitation and taking a number of steps to alleviate a negative reaction from Turkey and Azerbaijan. According to the American press, Putin said he would not put up with Bako Sahakyan, the self-styled "President of the NKR", standing next to him, and the latter stayed at home.

In his speech at the remembrance ceremony in Yerevan, Vladimir Putin did not say the word "genocide" or even mention Turkey. I should add that in Canakkale Russia was represented by the Speaker of the State Duma, Sergey Naryshkin.

Speaking at the ceremony in Yerevan, French President Francois Hollande did describe the events of 1915 as genocide, but at the same time he felt it necessary to say: "Remember that genocide does not mean to start a process (i.e. to accuse anyone now), it means paying homage to the memory of the dead so that such a tragedy may never be repeated." The fact that the French president almost immediately left Yerevan for a working visit to Baku would hardly have improved the mood of the Armenians. Unlike the sentimental nature of Armenian-French relations, France has a significant trade turnover with Azerbaijan and carries out large-scale investment projects. 

On 25 April Francois Hollande had a meeting with Ilham Aliyev. The presidents expressed satisfaction at the current level of bilateral cooperation, as well as the dynamic development of Azerbaijan-French relations. The sides also had a broad exchange of opinions on the current situation in the negotiations on a Nagornyy Karabakh settlement. President Ilham Aliyev expressed satisfaction at President Francois Hollande's work in this direction. A protocol of intentions on an Azerbaijani-French University was signed in the presence of the heads of state.

It should also be noted that Armenia's "allies" in the CSTO [Collective Security Treaty Organization] and the EAEU [Eurasian Economic Union] all snubbed the events in Yerevan. Kazakhstan didn't send a delegation at all, not even a low-level one. And Belarus President Alyaksandr Lukashenka demonstratively paid a visit to Georgia and did not consider it necessary to visit Yerevan, which is 30 minutes away by air. At the same time, the Belarus leader's visit gave his Georgian counterpart a good excuse to also decline attending the "genocide" events in Yerevan.

The Armenians could not wait for the long-desired word "genocide" to come from the lips of US President Obama. But the resolution of the European Parliament with a call to the European member-states to recognise the so-called "Armenian genocide" and the statement by the Pope at the special mass that "the genocide of the Armenians was the first of the 20th century", may be considered merely a consolation since it had already been noted by them earlier in one form or another.

Another country, the 21st a row, to recognise the "Armenian genocide" was Austria, the lower house of parliament there adopting a special statement on it. Ankara responded by recalling its ambassador for consultations. The change in the position of the parliament and government of the Federal Republic of Germany, which had previously avoided statements affecting Turkey, an important military and political ally and economic trade partner of Germany, deserves a more serious reaction. In the draft resolution submitted to the Bundestag it notes that "the planned mass extermination and deportation of more than one million ethnic Armenians in the 20th century are examples of ethnic cleansing, deportation and genocide". The document has not yet been adopted and has been submitted to the profile committees for further working up and discussion in keeping with the regulations.

Confidential talks are taking place between the sides on a government level, to ensure that the formulation contained in the document should not do irreparable damage to the traditionally close relations between the countries. The fact that FRG President Joachim Gauck used the word "genocide" with regard to the events of 1915 during a funeral prayer at a monastery in Berlin is not so significant since the president of Germany is a nominal figure. But what is most surprising is the passive attitude of the numerous Turkish diaspora with regard to this issue in Austria and Germany, which could by their active protests have prompted local politicians to restrain from using a one-sided formulation of historical events to humiliate Turkey and the Turkish nation.

Having become a national idee fixe, the word "genocide" in the imagination of the Armenians is associated like an illusion with a magic wand which should bring them every possible political, territorial and financial dividend. I think that the rulers of Armenia are assessing the situation more realistically and pragmatically dealing with the land-related aims. Firstly, retaining the subject of the so-called "genocide" on the international agenda makes out the Armenians to be a victim nation and does apparently justify requests for financial hand-outs and all kinds of benefits.

For a country like Armenia that does not have any internal resources for development, the grants and aid allocated to it on a government level, as well as the private donations collected every year are a life-line. Secondly, for today's Armenian leaders (Serzh Sargsyan, Seiran Oganyan, Robert Kocharyan and others) who directly managed the mass killings and ethnic cleansing of Azerbaijanis, the speech in the title-roles of the production on the so-called "centenary of the Armenian genocide" offers a certain amount of insurance again the risk of being brought before a court for their criminal acts in the future.

Thirdly, Sargsyan's government, unlike the inhabitants of Armenia, understands that demanding not only territorial and financial compensation from Turkey, but even managing to get recognition of the "genocide" and an apology for it is not realistic.  With their importunate urge with regard to the "genocide" the Armenian government is hoping, with the assistance of its foreign patrons among the great powers, to incline Ankara to the open the frontier with Armenia as a gesture of reconciliation and to withdraw from their principle-based stand of supporting Azerbaijan with regard to the Nagornyy Karabakh conflict. This means that the Armenians are reckoning on satisfying their appetite for territory, if not at the expense of Turkey, then at least at the expense of the occupied Azerbaijani territories.

These expectations will be in vain. Turkey was not smashed at the beginning of the 20th century, when it was immensely weak. Nor will they manage to do this now when the Turkish armed forces are one of the most powerful in Europe, and the economy counts among the top twenty economies in the world. A hundred years ago, in the bloody battles of Canakkale, the Turks not only saved their own statehood, but, when they had gained victory, they created the necessary prerequisites for the formation of the subsequent independent state of Azerbaijan in the form of the Azerbaijan Democratic Republic. Today our fraternal alliance largely predetermines regional geopolitics, and not the Armenians themselves but also their patrons in the world will be compelled to take that into account.