ON FARAWAY SHORES

Rumours that appeared in early September about Russia sending combat aircraft to fight against Islamic State (IS) militants could hardly be just a baseless fabrication by not too conscientious journalists. There is no smoke without fire, people say in such cases. It is clear that the information leaked onto the Israeli English language website Ynetnews "citing diplomatic sources" was called to probe reactions of reci-pients at different levels and from different sides. Ideal conditions have been created for this: it is very difficult to verify the reliability of assumptions about what may be going on in the torn-apart Middle East country. 

Thus, according to Israeli media, Russian military servicemen and aircraft are already on airbases controlled by the Bashar al-Asad government in the environs of Damascus. In the near future, the strength of Russian expeditionary forces in Syria may reach several thousand people: advisers, instructors, base wallahs, antiaircraft gunners and pilots. A contact of Lenta.ru "close to Israel's security agencies" has also indirectly confirmed that there are Russian military there. Furthermore, the Sunni jihadist group Jabhat al-Nusra linked to al-Qa'eda has circulated photos online allegedly of Russian fighters in the sky over Syria to the west of the town of Idlib. The pictures are blurred but a blogger under the nickname Green Lemon whose account says that he has a focus on military analysis of the situation in Syria and Iraq, "managed to identify Pchela-1T drones and Su-34 and Su-27 planes. At the same time, information is being discussed that Russia is in permanent contact with Iran on the subject of strengthening the armament of the Syrian army for which purpose the Russian Federation can use a Syrian seaport other than Tartus. 

By the way, Russian arms supplies to Syria may be much larger in scale. Turkish journalists reported in mid-August the arrival of six Russian MiG-31 supersonic jet fighters at an airfield near Damascus. In observers' opinion, this could be related to a contract signed between Moscow and Damascus although representatives of the Russian military industrial complex have flatly denied this news. At about the same time, some media ("The Daily Beast" and "Bosphorus Naval News") discussed information that, as the Nikolai Filchenkov large landing ship passed the Turkish Straits on 20 August, a cargo looking like KamAZ trucks, combat vehicles and possibly armoured personnel carriers under a camouflage net was spotted aboard the ship. After that, a blogger named Oryx Blog monitoring the military situation in the Middle East and Northern Africa has written that the Syrian government army has got at least one Russian-made BTR-82A armoured personnel carrier. Also at that time, the BTR-82A crew's conversations got incidentally (or maybe not) into a Syrian media report. In addition, photos of downed allegedly Russian-made drones appeared in social networks in late July. 

Dmitiry Peskov, the Russian president's press secretary, found it necessary to respond to the rumours. He urged not to believe that Russian aircraft are involved in bombing IS positions. A "contact at the Ministry of Defence of the Russian Federation" said the same in an interview to the Russia Today TV channel. Russia has never denied the fact that it helps Syria with equipment, personnel training and weapons but at the same time it has always emphasized that the issue of Russian military servicemen's involvement in combat against IS has not even been raised. 

The internal conflict in Syria has been in progress since March 2011. In 2013, a third formidable force - the Islamic State (IS) terrorist organization - appeared in the confrontation between the Bashar al-Asad regime and a variety of opposition groups. It declared the establishment of a worldwide caliphate as its goal and, at the moment, it has control over considerable territories in Syria and neighbouring Iraq. Throughout this period, government troops have managed to resist and stay afloat but what if the current al-Asad regime begins to lose strength? How will Russia react in that case? Indeed, it is an expensive and not always efficient process to help only with arms and the risk is too high that they may ultimately find themselves in the hands of IS. It is noteworthy that talks about Russian aviation in Syrian skies appeared simultaneously with rumours that battles were almost going on in the environs of Damascus and that al-Asad's army was retreating on a large scale in the strategically important province of Idlib. This is just the place where, according to a Jabhat al-Nusra report, Russian Su-type planes were spotted. At the same time, opposite information came in about al-Asad's army regaining control over the border with Lebanon. Battles unfolded around the town of Zabadani which has been in the Islamist hands for four years now. 

Why should Russia let itself be involved in a big and expensive military conflict and rather far from its borders? Especially now, given the falling oil prices, western sanctions and the situation in Donbass across Russia's border. All that would put quite a lot of extra burden on the budget, essentially increase the risk of terrorist acts on Russian territory and all these put together might have an utterly negative effect on the situation inside the country. In addition, some Russian experts believe, that step might give NATO a free hand to do many things and Syria would become a second Afghanistan to Moscow. By the way, given that the Kremlin and the White House have actually been in a state of cold war of late, can this be just what the USA is trying to achieve? 

On the one hand, for Russia, Syria is a barrier to the spread of the IS threat. If IS militants fail to be stropped (the Kremlin, it appears, sees a reliable barrier to IS in the viability of the al-Asad regime), the nearest future may see them close to Russia's borders. The IS ruling clique makes no secret of their ambitions with regard to the North Caucasus of the Russian Federation and the Central Asian states with which Russia is, by the way, bound by an agreement under the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) and will therefore have to help. For this purpose, the Islamists need to consolidate their positions in Afghanistan. According to Sergey Melikov, the Russian president's envoy to the North Caucasus Federal District (NCFD), the past month alone has seen 25 people detained when trying to depart for Syria to join the IS ranks and most of them are young people. Cases are known where recruits were enrolled in other Russian regions. So, viewed from this angle, it is certainly better for Moscow to act now rather than afterwards. 

Currently, IS in Syria and Iraq is opposed by an international coalition led by the USA in which Russia takes no part. Turkey was the last to sign a document with the USA in late August on the involvement of its air force in the coalition's ongoing air operations. Washington is also overtly coordinating its policy with Iran describing the Islamic Republic as an important component in the campaign against IS, especially in Iraq. For its part, Moscow suggests setting up a new international coalition (with a UN Security Council mandate) for fighting against IS and sees it as comprising the Syrian and Iraqi armies, Kurds and the armies of other states in the region. During his talks with US Secretary of State John Kerry and representatives of diplomatic missions from the Gulf States in Qatar in early August, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov voiced this idea more or less clearly for the first time. In all likelihood, this theme will be high on the agenda of Putin's speech planned for the 70th session of the UN General Assembly in New York. However, the Kremlin's problem is that the USA has turned a deaf ear to them and follows its own plan. While the Russians view keeping the al-Asad regime as the main guarantee of success in fighting against IS, the Americans view IS and the al-Asad regime as equal evil. Washington's opinion is shared by many countries (Turkey, Saudi Arabia and others) urged by Moscow to join the "new coalition". Since August 2014, the USA has been delivering air strikes on IS. Obama recently authorised US military to use aviation to protect opposition forces both against IS and the government's troops. Any threat to moderate opposition may become a reason for Washington's military intervention. 

It could be much easier but there is one slight hitch: both the Americans and the Russians have their own "problem" consisting in that the US-led coalition against IS does not have much success to boast as yet. The militants feel carefree and confident, finding channels to sell stolen treasures of world history and oil in order to provide themselves with weapons and new recruits. In the current situation, there is no hurry for the USA (the presidential race is gathering momentum, the defence industry is busy with orders as Syrian rebels need help), whereas Europe cannot wait anymore. The migrant crisis is getting increasingly out of control and is absolutely unacceptable in terms of its humanitarian aspects. One could say that, with each new Syrian child drowned off the shores of Greece or Italy, the Old World increasingly loses its moral face that it took so much pain to gain since the end of World War II. The IS problem must and will be settled and, clearly enough, that solution will sweep the al-Asad regime away. Russia has nothing to respond with here, all the more so as Iran, which Russia might rely on in this respect, is now too eager to break into the "big world" and out of the fetters of many years' sanctions and it is just the USA that is opening up the way. 

The only way to retrieve at least some of the losses is by providing al-Asad with a safe retreat to the part of the state referred to in western media as Alawistan where the current Syrian regime has most support. It is littoral territory around the towns of Tartus and Latakia separated by the Jebel-Ansaria mountain massif and Lebanon. There is no developed infrastructure or industry but there is an access to the Mediterranean and control over key seaports. It is there, apropos, that Russia's only naval base in the Mediterranean is located. This option will give Moscow at least some opportunity to keep its influence in the region changing its format. A number of observers hold the opinion that Russia may apply a scenario in Syria that is already referred to in the West as "Putin's hybrid war" where irregular armed formations are used so that military servicemen are as if there and at the same time there are none of them. Putin himself said quite recently that it is too early at the moment to speak about Russia's involvement in military operation against the IS terrorist group. "We are considering various opportunities but what you said (participation in military operations) is not on our agenda as yet," Putin said. According to Putin, Russia is assisting the regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Asad with hardware, equipment and military personnel training. 

There are lots of US "military technical advisors" of this kind working in Iraq, Afghanistan and Syria, so that this has been a normal practice for a long time. In that case, Russia can reckon on secret support from Tehran which could do with Alawi leverage for the West. This kind of scenario explains quite well why and who needed to monitor reactions to the rumours about Russian aircraft in the skies over Syria.