CONSULTATIONS IN THE WINGS

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov made a one-day working visit to Baku on 1 September. The Russian foreign minister was received by President Ilham Aliyev. As most experts expected, the main subject of the talks was the Armenian-Azerbaijani Nagornyy Karabakh conflict. "This is a topic which we, under your leadership, under the leadership of the presidents of Armenia and Russia, as well as of the co-chairing countries of the [OSCE, Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe] Minsk Group are trying to bring to a common denominator. I hope that progress will be achieved," the Russian minister stated.

In Yerevan, where they suspiciously kept track of this unscheduled visit to Baku by Sergey Lavrov, hysterics were caused that the minister of Armenia's ally, as well as the co-chairman of the OSCE Minsk Group, which is mediating in the Nagornyy Karabakh conflict peace settlement, has not expressed his concern about the ever more frequent disruptions of the cease-fire, but has talked more about the development of military cooperation with Azerbaijan. "We believe that our Azerbaijani friends will take part in the "Russia Arms Expo-2015" exhibition of military hardware which is to be held in Sverdlovsk province in September. The representatives of Azerbaijan have received the relevant invitation."

He also expressed his gratitude for the splendid organised visit to Baku in August by three ships of the Caspian flotilla. Touching on the humanitarian ties between the two countries, Lavrov noted that there is "this huge stratum of relations, emphasizing the closeness of our peoples and how they are drawn to one another. Culture and education bring us very close together." 

In his turn, President Ilham Aliyev said that Azerbaijan was inclined to pursue the productive and successful development of bilateral relations with Russia. He said that in Baku they thought very highly of the fact that the Russian leader Vladimir Putin had visited Azerbaijan to attend the opening ceremony of the First European Games on Russia Day. "That was at great cost to himself," Ilham Aliyev stressed.  "This is a clear indication of the high level of our relations." The Azerbaijani president noted the continuous nature of the dialogue between Moscow and Baku. "In this period, our minister has visited Moscow, and now you are here with us," he said, addressing Lavrov. "This is an indicator of our dynamically developing relations."

"We are resolving many issues of a bilateral nature effectively and efficiently; we are also actively collaborating in international structures, periodically conducting consultations, all the more so at the present time when everything is changing a great deal in the world and in our region. In other words, these visits are the best indicator of the strategic partnership between our countries, which took shape sufficiently long ago and embraces practically all spheres of our life - political, economic, energy-related and humanitarian - and we are disposed to continue the productive and successful development of our bilateral relations." 

Sergey Lavrov thanked the Azerbaijani leader for his warm words. "We are strategic partners in Transcaucasia and in the Caspian region and on the whole our approaches in resolving the most important and complicated problems in international relations are very close," the Russian minister said. 

He added that the two countries' foreign ministries were discussing the countries' cooperation at the United Nations, in the OSCE and in the Council of Europe, as well as in other international organisations. The Rus-sian foreign minister also noted the successful development of economic ties between the two countries in spite of the situation on the international market.

But all the words above spoken publicly do not disguise the reasons for the unscheduled visit to Baku by Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov. You see, about a month ago Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Elmar Mammad-yarov paid a working visit to Moscow where the foreign ministers had consultations on the whole Russian-Azerbaijani relations' agenda; they discussed the international problems affecting the interests of the parties. Therefore it may be supposed that some of the Russian proposals conveyed by Mammadyarov (most likely relating to the Nagornyy Karabakh conflict) did not evoke a positive reaction in the top Azerbaijani leadership, and Lavrov was dispatched to Baku to clarify matters personally and to convince people here of the expediency of adopting them.

It is also possible that Moscow's proposals were so important, that before saying "yes" or "no", consultations with our strategic ally Turkey were necessary. On the eve of Lavrov's arrival in Baku, Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Elmar Mammadyarov made a brief working visit to Ankara, where he had talks with his Turkish counterpart. Informed of the situation, Turkish Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu did, according to the Anadolu agency, state: "While Turkey stands side by side with Azerbaijan, there cannot be any problems on the country's frontier." He went on to stress that Turkey has always stood side by side with Azerbaijan and will always support a fraternal republic.

The Turkish prime minister's words confirmed Turkey's stand and provided Azerbaijan with additional confidence on the eve of the complicated negotiations with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov. Although, without that, foreign politicians are well aware that it is pointless to talk to Azerbaijan from the standpoint of force or to make threatening hints. This does, as a rule, have the opposite effect. Together with our strategic partner which is fraternal Turkey, Azerbaijan represents a force in the region which even great powers like Russia have to take into account.

Azerbaijan's and Turkey's ties as allies are growing stronger, moreover not just political, economic and cultural ties, but also in such an important sphere as the military. In keeping with the annual plan for military cooperation, directly in the period when Sergey Lavrov was visiting Baku and President Serzh Sargsyan was visiting occupied Nagornyy Karabakh, a Turkish air force group arrived in Azerbaijan to take part in the "TurAz Qartli-2015" joint tactical exercises. More than 30 aircraft were involved in these exercises: Mig-29 and F-16 fighters, Su-25 and F-4E bombers, S-130 Hercules military transport planes, Mi-35 and Mi-17 war planes and Sikorski UH-60 helicopter gunships and Cougar AS532 search and rescue helicopters. The planned joint operations of the two countries' air forces and military coordination were conducted during the exercises, as well as search and rescue operations; targets on the ground were destroyed from the air and other tasks were carried out.

But the main thing is the essence of Russia's proposals to take the negotiations on a Nagornyy Karabakh settlement out of the impasse and the price being asked by the Kremlin for its "kind services", while no information was leaked out by the media. It is not to be ruled out that Moscow does not want to get the Armenians excited before it receives a positive signal from the Azerbaijani leadership. They are regarded as so independent of Russia, both in military and economic relations, that no big problems are foreseen in Moscow regarding the displeasure of Yerevan and that of the self-styled leaders in Nagornyy Karabakh. 

In actual fact, Armenian officials are remaining silent. Only the opposition news sources are muttering to Russia and then very cautiously. Vagram Agadzhanyan, the editor-in-chief of the Armenian newspaper "Third Force Plus" wrote that there were missiles for Azerbaijan, but for the Armenians the tatty opera diva Kazarnovskaya, who surprised the Armenians by preferring to perform a funeral requiem at the celebrations for the 24th anniversary of the "independence" of the so-called "Nagornyy Karabakh republic".  If you wish, you can detect a sorrowful symbol in this. You see, those holding talks between Baku and Moscow behind their back can put an end to the long-drawn-out game in the "independent Nagornyy Karabakh Republic", which has brought destruction and grief to the region.

The Armenians only have enough powerless malice to shoot at a wedding party being held in a village not far from the line of contact between the sides. At the same time, the Armenians who have entrenched themselves in the Russian media and their lobbyists have organised a salvo of anti-Azerbaijani publications to provoke an emotional reaction in Baku and torpedo the Azerbaijani-Russian dialogue which is scaring the Armenians. These are pointless attempts. Times have changed and the news bulletins, pin pricks and firing on civilians cannot unbalance Azerbaijan and will not manage to drag us down the wrong path. Baku is stepping up the pressure on the Armenians in every way, firstly diplomatic pressure and also military pressure. The balance of force is already such that, without direct Russian support, the Armenians have no chance of withstanding Azerbaijan's armed forces. So, they will have to argue over the concessions they need to make.

Quoting Dennis Sammut, the head of an international non-profit organisation, which has close ties with Great Britain's Foreign Office and MI-5 (intelligence service), the Armenian Iragir.am website  asserts that, in order to forge close ties with Azerbaijan, Moscow may have to force Yerevan to "give up" up a piece of Nagornyy Karabakh territory. But firstly, not give up, but return territory seized by force and illegally held territory belonging to Azerbaijan. Secondly, it is possible to begin to return territory, as the Armenian analyst states, piece by piece, but ultimately they will have to return everything up to the very last centimetre. It can surely be said that President Ilham Aliyev has reiterated that repeatedly and he is expressing the unbending will of the Azerbaijan people regarding this issue.