A CLUMSY ATTEMPT

The new escalation of tension in the Karabakh conflict zone that continues to this day made it possible to remind the world community, the most prominent representatives of which gathered at the 70th anniversary of the UN General Assembly, that the Nagornyy Karabakh conflict could erupt again at any moment. The leaders of almost all the major international organizations, including UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon, made statements calling for the parties to the conflict to show restraint. The presence of the Azerbaijani delegation in New York, headed by Minister of Foreign Affairs Elmar Mammadyarov, allowed official Baku to communicate to the world its position on what is happening on the front line.

The keynotes of Azerbaijani diplomacy were saved for general discussion within the framework of the General Assembly, which were delivered by the minister himself. Mammadyarov spoke after the Armenian President, and therefore he devoted a prominent place in his speech to debunking baseless accusations (which the Azerbaijani minister described as a "set of falsifications, distortions and lies") made by Sargsyan.

Stating that "Karabakh is an inseparable part of Armenia", Sargsyan thereby acknowledged the aggression against Azerbaijan at the highest level, said the Azerbaijani foreign minister, speaking at the 70th session of the UN General Assembly.

The minister noted that Sargsyan's statement has shown how far the Armenian leadership is from achieving peace in constructive ways, whereas his observation that Armenia is the most militarized region in the world has smashed to smithereens the president's conciliatory words spoken earlier about the importance of confidence-building measures between the conflicting parties.

"Armenia's territorial claims to neighbouring countries, which are based on historical distortions, aggression against Azerbaijan, occupation of its territories and conducting ethnic cleansing on them, stubborn denial of responsibility for the crimes committed during the conflict, prevention of direct contacts between the Azerbaijani and Armenian communities of Nagornyy Karabakh and dodging cooperation on missed in action are the true reasons for the lack of trust," the minister said. The primary measure of confidence-building, he said, would be the elimination of the main cause for the current armed clashes on the frontline, i.e. the illegal presence of Armenia's armed forces on the occupied Azerbaijani territories.

Speaking from the UN rostrum, Mammadyarov has sent a tough message to Yerevan: if Armenia continues to delay the withdrawal of its troops from Azerbaijani territories, Azerbaijan will be forced to resort to the right, vested in the country by the UN Charter, to independently restore its territorial integrity.

"By showing disrespect for the norms and principles of international law and changing the physical, demographic and cultural character of the occupied territories, Armenia continues its efforts geared towards further strengthening of the status quo and prevents hundreds of thousands of Azerbaijanis forcibly expelled from their homes to exercise their right to return and get back their property," the foreign minister said.

Furthermore, Mammadyarov was speaking about the inadmissibility of the conflict procrastination policy and Azerbaijan's intention to fight for the liberation of its occupied lands almost at all bilateral meetings and individual forums held in the framework of the General Assembly. However, the Armenian side did not remain silent either.

Last week would be best remembered for another portion of broad statements from Yerevan. The deputy defence minister threatened to "force Azerbaijan to conclude an armistice on new conditions", while the deputy foreign minister said that "Baku's actions bring nearer the day of international recognition of Karabakh". However, this rhetoric is nothing but empty pathos. As shown by more than 20 years of past negotiations, the problem of such a long procrastination of the conflict comes down to the lack of peace enforcement mechanisms. There are those who do not have the needed capabilities, while those who do have such capabilities simply do not want to do it for various reasons. It is ridiculous to hear that Armenia, which is highly dependent on the "elder brother" as well as brothers of lower status, is capable of independent behaviour, to say nothing about forcing anyone to do anything. As for the powers that be represented by the United States, Russia and France, which try to mediate in resolving the conflict and could lead to real progress and even settlement of the problem, they still fail to show their desire to do it. Although who but these three countries, which are permanent members of the UN Security Council, could be closely involved in the implementation of resolutions adopted by this organization, which demand unconditional withdrawal of Armenian troops from Azerbaijani territories. 

To explain this, it used to be often said that it was against the interests of some of those countries to disentangle the Karabakh knot. Today this issue should be formulated differently: they just do not have sufficient motivation. The United States did send their troops to Libya on the heels of the Security Council passing a resolution to this effect. It took Russia only a short time and one request from president al-Asad to send its aircraft to bomb the terrorists in Syria. It is clear that people both in Azerbaijan and Armenia understand that interests rule the world today. People in Azerbaijan are aware that the UN Security Council will not remember the resolution on Karabakh until they can benefit from it. People in Yerevan also suspect that, in their case, too, the numerous bilateral documents on military and political cooperation with Russia and the CSTO will not suffice to make someone else do the job of "coercion to peace". 

Note that Sargsyan's statement about Nagornyy Karabakh belonging to Armenia was taken sceptically even in Yerevan. Experts independent of the authorities accused the president of inconsistency and having no clear line of conduct as he had shortly before said that Armenia had not joined the Eurasian Union together with Nagornyy Karabakh because it was not its part. Being vexed by recent successes of Azerbaijani military on the Karabakh front and even more by the indifferent reaction to it by their patroness Russia and other CSTO member states, S.Sargsyan obviously wanted to find a way to soothe his injured pride. His favourite technique to do that is Karabakh. But the Armenian leadership will not dare recognize its independence officially. As is rightly believed in Yerevan itself, recognition would mean the immediate start of a new war by Azerbaijan to which the Armenians are not prepared. 

At the same time, Sargsyan's statement can be viewed from another angle. Yerevan would hardly welcome direct or indirect evidence of the fact that Russia and the CSTO are not going to harness themselves in a likely war in Nagornyy Karabakh which is part of Azerbaijan. For its part, Baku is drifting ever closer to Moscow. Therefore Sargsyan's words that "Nagornyy Karabakh is part of Armenia" is just another attempt of the president to bring into play the military-political agreement, according to which "attacking Armenia means attacking Russia". The attempt is clumsy, though, because, without official support from the Russian president, the Armenian president's words sound just like wishful thinking. Meanwhile, such support from Russia seems incredible. By its rapprochement with Russia in its hard times, Azerbaijan has shown its ability to neutralize current and potential risks. The task of Azerbaijani diplomacy is to act so that any anti-Azerbaijani demarche turns against Russia's interests, in case it comes to restoring Azerbaijan's territorial integrity by the use of force.