SWORN FRIENDS OF SYRIA

Late April saw the end of another round of intra-Syrian talks in Geneva, which had started on 13 April. This round of talks did not produce any results. UN special envoy Staffan de Mistura failed to organize direct talks between Damascus and the opposition. A delegation of the High Negotiations Committee (HNC) explained that it suspended its participation in the talks because Damascus continued to conduct military action in Aleppo and besiege settlements and failed to ensure the delivery of humanitarian aid. The Syrian opposition called on the negotiators to recognize that the peace process failed and to start to discuss the implications.

A cease-fire, which was established in Syria on 27 February at the initiative of Russia and the United States, is often violated, and not only in relation to Islamic State and Jabhat al-Nusra, which the original cease-fire agreement left out. There are two centres monitoring the observance of the cessation of hostilities in Syria - a Russian one at Hmeymim base and a US one in Amman (Jordan). However, the parties have different views of the situation. As a result, the country effectively remains split into parts - territories controlled by the terrorists, the Syrian government, opposition forces, Kurds and the Hezbollah group. As of late April and May, the most difficult situation is in the once large city of Aleppo, where more than 2m people lived before the war, and in the province by the same name. They are now divided into two parts - in the west there are government forces and in the east there are the opposition and the terrorists, mostly from Jabhat al-Nusra, and it is impossible to understand exactly under whose control the city is. Assad's army has the help of the Russian military and Iranian special forces. According to Reuters, about 13 Iranian military from the IRGC (Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps) were killed in early May while fighting the terrorists near Aleppo. The opposition forces have the backing of the USA and its Western allies. The Turkish army, too, fights the terrorists from its territory.

Washington and Moscow agreed on 4 May to extend the cease-fire in Syria to Aleppo. The Kremlin and the White House released a joint statement pledging to intensify action to achieve a political settlement in Syria through intra-Syrian talks in Geneva under the auspices of the UN. Russia promises to exert pressure on the Syrian militants and the authorities in Damascus, while the United States will do the same with regard to the opposition forces. "We demand that parties cease any indiscriminate attacks on civilians, including civilian infrastructure and medical facilities," Moscow and Washington stressed. The USA is also going to enhance support and assistance to regional allies to help them prevent transfers of militants and weapons through the border and to help them prevent financial assistance from being given to terrorist organizations. However, these are all just statements. When it comes to action, the White House demands that Russia put pressure on Damascus so it does not violate the cease-fire agreement. In response, the White House receives a proposal for the opposition to withdraw from the regions of Aleppo. As a result, [the two parties] go round in circles. In addition, joint statements by Russia and the United States cause the extreme discontent of Iran, which will also be difficult to ignore.

According to the UN special envoy for Syria, Staffan de Mistura, the failure of the negotiating process towards a cease-fire in the Syrian city of Aleppo will have disastrous consequences. Those consequences are already being observed. International human rights organizations are sounding the alarm, pointing out that more than 200 local residents were killed in the city in the course of a week of fighting in late April alone. Walter Gros, representative of the International Committee of the Red Cross in Geneva, has said that residents of Aleppo, and not only them, are on the verge of a humanitarian catastrophe. In addition, it is still difficult to determine the extent of the responsibility of one or another party for their actions in Syria. On 5 May, BBC News reported that unidentified aircraft attacked the al-Kamouna refugee camp in Idlib province. At least 28 people were killed and dozens were injured, including women and children. However, Syria's Air Force and artillery said they had nothing to do with the incident. The US Air Force and the anti-terrorist coalition said the same.

If the cease-fire is not observed, more people will die and the number of refugees from Syria will increase by tens of thousands. Turkey may be hit especially. It already has almost 3m migrants. But the situation in Europe will become complicated too, if the migration agreement between Turkey and the EU fails. Many observers started to fear such a development of events after the unexpected resignation of Turkish Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu. It was owing to his efforts that, many Western media outlets say, a scenario for the development of events that suited both sides was reached. However, the president of the country, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, has said he is not going to take his lead from Brussels, which demands a revision of a number of Turkish laws, including the one on the fight against terrorism. "They expect Turkey to make catastrophic amendments... However, they will not see that happen. Unlike Europe, we will not put terrorists on our head and will not open up our arms for them. We should not cave in to anyone but need to keep our head up high. This is very important," Erdogan said. He added that Ankara had never received money promised by Europe. In addition, Erdogan accuses the Western countries of failing to help his government fight terrorists in Turkey. Although the Turkish artillery killed 55 militants in Syria, Ankara has not yet resolved to act there to the full, including in view of the difficult relationship between Russia and Turkey. Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Gennadiy Gatilov said that Ankara had a negative impact on the negotiating process. He said it was largely due to Turkish pressure that HNC suspended its participation in the Geneva discussions. It is evident that it will be extremely difficult for these two "friends of Syria" to come to agreement.

Russia is meanwhile building its own image in Syria, and in best American traditions. A symphonic orchestra from [Russian] Mariinsky Theatre performed a concert in early May, titled "With a prayer for Palmyra. Music revives the ancient walls", using the ancient ruins of Palmyra as a stage. The ruins are one of the six UNESCO World Heritage Sites in Syria, and had been under the control of the militants since mid-May 2015 and were liberated by Assad's troops with the support of the Russian air and space force. Russian President Vladimir Putin addressed those present via video conferencing. He called the concert "hope for the deliverance of modern civilization from international terrorism". British Foreign Secretary Philip Hammond, in turn, called the Mariinsky Theatre concert in Palmyra "a tasteless attempt to distract attention from the continued suffering of millions of Syrians". However, on the whole, this PR stunt by Moscow did not go underestimated by the world.

Russia exercises the tactics in Syria when it is not clear how deep its presence is or whether it has a long-term plan for Syria. In mid-March, the Kremlin began to pull the bulk of its military troops out of Syria, but Russian military in Syria continue to use Hmeymim aerodrome near Latakia and the naval logistics station in Tartus. Moreover, according to Al Masdar News, Russia has turned part of Palmyra into a military base. An Agence France-Presse reporter has published a video that shows the fenced base with a self-propelled anti-aircraft missile gun complex "Carapace-C1" in it. This may suggest that Russia plans to expand the zone of combat operations to the city of Raqqa, which the Islamic State group considers to be its capital, and the city of Deir ez-Zor.

US military capacity in the Middle East at the moment is significantly superior to Russia's, but the Americans are in no hurry to seriously intervene in Syria, at least under the current administration. The spokesman for the White House, Josh Earnest, said that "securing safe zones in Syria will be complicated to implement" because this will require the involvement of a large number of US soldiers, and they will be in very dangerous conditions. "A political transition is the only solution that is consistent with our national security interests," he concluded. However, the Americans believe that for a political transition, Assad needs to go, something that Russia and Iran oppose, which means that everything is going round in circles. There is no point in talking about a resumption of the Geneva conference before the issue is resolved. Meetings are held within the framework of the "Friends of Syria" group, which includes representatives of the United States, Egypt, France, Germany, Italy, Jordan, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, the UAE, the UK, the USA, and the EU. Also participating in the 9 May meeting was the head of the HNC of the Syrian opposition, Riyad Hijab. Representatives of the government of Syria, Russia, Iran, and the Kurds were not invited to join the dialogue, hence agreements reached there can only be viewed as recommendations. It has not yet been possible to sit all the friends of Syria at the table and, most importantly, to dispose them to have a constructive dialogue.