"TRANSITIONAL PERIOD"

There is a new government with a new prime minister in Turkey, this country's parliament has passed a law stripping members of parliament of immunity, people everywhere are talking about an upcoming early parliamentary election after which the country is expected to switch from a parliamentary to a presidential form of government. But first things first…

"Teacher" retires

The now former Turkish Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu officially resigned on 22 May. It is not very ethical to criticize someone who quit their post. However, circumstances and reasons that led him to do so are worth analysing.

Davutoglu was appointed to the post of Turkish foreign minister in May 2009. Even prior to his appointment, in his capacity as chief adviser to Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan, he was one of the foreign policymakers of the Republic of Turkey. Davutoglu had no experience of diplomatic activity and was a theorist from academia but showed big promise. Even before his appointment, he spoke, as the author of several books, about the importance of transition from isolation, which was maintained ever since Ataturk's times, to a more active role for Turkey in the global arena.

However, his strategy of neo-Ottomanism has cost Turkey spoilt relations with many neighbours in the course of several years. Suffice it to remember "the Zurich protocols" signed with Armenia, in the development of which Davutoglu took a very active part. Back then, "football diplomacy" between the two countries tested the firmness of the relationship between Azerbaijan and Turkey, but the brotherly nations managed to overcome that crisis.

However, that failure did not have a negative impact on the foreign minister's career. Moreover, after Recep Tayyip Erdogan was elected president of Turkey in 2014, Davutoglu became prime minister. This is despite the fact that polls suggested that members of the ruling party saw Binali Yildirim or Abdullah Gul as leader of the Justice and Development Party (AKP) and, accordingly, prime minister of the country, while Ahmet Davutoglu was only number three on the list. According to Turkish analysts, it was only owing to personal support from President Erdogan that Davutoglu later managed to garner the majority of votes in the party. However, analytical circles also say that support from US non-conservative forces support (since the days of Davutoglu's academic activities) also played a role in his career development.

It is hard to claim that Davutoglu's appointment had a positive impact on the approval ratings of the ruling party. For the first time since 2002, the AKP failed to get in the first round of the 2015 parliamentary election the number of votes necessary for it to form a government independently. It is said that the prime minister's subsequent disagreements with President Erdogan were one of the chief reasons for his resignation.

These and many other factors combined forced Erdogan to use his authority within the party to initiate an extraordinary congress at which Davutoglu could no longer say he would run for party chairman and prime minister. Therefore, the extraordinary congress of the AKP elected Binali Yildirim the new chairman of the party. He also became Turkey's prime minister. Last week the president endorsed the new cabinet that Yildirim nominated.

Who is he, the 38th prime minister of Turkey?

There is much history between Binali Yildirim and Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan, who is the undisputed leader of the AKP. Back in the early 1990s, they both worked in the Istanbul municipality. As a navigation specialist, Yildirim worked at Istanbul Shipping Company in 1994-2002. He was in charge of organization of transportation. A successful technocrat and bureaucrat, he was the architect and leader of many infrastructure mega-projects. Most importantly, alongside Erdogan, Yildirim stood at the origins of the AKP and has had a huge influence on party members to date.

In 2002, Yildirim was appointed minister of transport. Over the 13 years, projects worth a total of 253bn Turkish liras were implemented. The Turks associate budget airlines, the mega-project Marmaray, 4.5G, roads and bridges with Yildirim's name. In other words, he put his signature under almost all significant achievements that Turkey's leadership is rightly proud of today.

New era in Turkish politics

Statements that were made at the extraordinary congress of the AKP by party functionaries and specialist analyses suggest that Turkey is entering a new era in domestic politics. According to many Turkish analysts, this political event changed the nature of the Turkish political system and effectively marked the beginning of transition to a presidential form of government in this country.

Before the congress began, AKP spokesman Omer Celik announced the only candidate and said: "There is no distance between the AKP and President Erdogan". In this way he stressed the unity of the party and the president. Even more eloquent statements came from the new chairman of the AKP. He said that the actual leader of party was President Erdogan. This statement was repeated in all speeches, creating an atmosphere of unanimity in the congress hall. However, according to some experts, this does not quite fit into the foundations of the present-day Turkish constitution, according to which the head of Turkish state must not have a party affiliation.

Clearly, by counting on Binali Yildirim, Erdogan chose a strong person without political ambitions, whom he had known for a long time and was confident that he had no disagreements with. But skeptics' allegations that the new prime minister would become a puppet in Erdogan's hands do not stand any criticism because a lack of political ambitions does not mean that he cannot be a strong prime minister. In addition, the times of "strong prime ministers" in Turkey in the classic understanding are over.

Yildirim has not been hesitating and has outlined priorities for the new government. Expectedly, among the top priorities he set was the fight against terrorism and separatism. It is no coincidence that the first destination he chose to visit was the city of Diyarbakir, which has been the scene of an anti-terrorist operation for a little less than a year now. Also, according to analysts, Yildirim's government will seriously attend to the economy, which has not been doing well lately. Major infrastructure projects will be continued and expanded.

It is worth separately touching on the probability of changes to foreign policy. Many are hoping that the emotional romanticism in Turkish foreign policy will be left behind. As a pragmatist, Yildirim advocates rapprochement in the highly shaken relations between Turkey and Russia.

People in Turkey are already calling Yildirim's rule a "transitional period". It means that he will regulate the process of transformation into a presidential form of government. After all, the prime minister himself has said that transition to a presidential form of government and the adoption of a new constitution are some of the priorities.

Parliament's support required

But will the Turkish ruling party be able to ensure the absolute majority of votes in parliament that is necessary for the adoption of a new constitution? At present, 317 seats in the Grand National Assembly belong to the AKP, 133 to the Republican People's Party (CHP), 59 to the pro-Kurdish Peoples' Democratic Party (HDP) and 40 to the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP).

A minimum of 367 votes are required for amendments to the constitution to be passed. If a party or a coalition does not have that number of votes in parliament, the constitution can only be amended by a popular vote. But at least 330 of parliamentarians' votes are required to announce a popular vote. This means that for the time being it will be difficult for the AKP to start the process of amending the constitution because it does not have enough seats in parliament. An extraordinary election will have to be held, in which case, at present the ruling AKP has all chances of getting an absolute majority of seats in parliament. There are many reasons for this, including the vulnerability of the current positions of the party's competitors.

The party of nationalists is literally split into several parts. Most functionaries demand the resignation of chairman Devlet Bahceli, who is trying hard to keep the reins in his hands. Laying claims to his post are four candidates, and the final showdown will happen in mid-June. Therefore, the fragmented nationalist camp is unlikely to overcome the 10-per-cent threshold and get seats in parliament.

There are no rosy prospects for the pro-Kurdish HDP either. The party has failed to get out of the "shadow" of the terrorist Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK). HDP MPs often make statements that openly support separatism and anti-state rhetoric. The bulk of the party electorate are ethnic Kurds, who accuse mainly the HDP and the PKK of aggravating the situation in south-eastern Anatolia and of carrying out anti-terrorist operations that affect the population. This means that the HDP would also fail to overcome the 10-per-cent threshold in an election, and only the ruling AKP and the opposition CHP would make it to parliament. Accordingly, under Turkish laws, all votes of parties that fail to gain the number of votes giving them seats in parliament would be given to the ruling AKP. So, if an election was to be held today, the ruling AKP would gain enough seats in parliament to amend the constitution and secure a presidential form of government.

Opponents of the ruling party believe that these plans are the reason for parliament's decision to strip parliamentarians of judicial immunity. By the way, the bill was passed on 20 May in the very first reading. Meanwhile, parliament is already considering proposals from the Prosecutor-General's Office to strip of immunity138 MPs, 101 of which are members of the two main opposition parties - the HDP and the CHP. The controversial co-chair of the HDP, Selahattin Demirtas, faces criminal prosecution as well. The fact that are there proceedings against this many MPs gives full ground for an early parliamentary election to be held.

However, much depends on processes that are taking place in the camp of the Turkish nationalists. If Meral Aksener becomes chairwoman, then, according to opinion polls, more than 25 per cent of voters will readily vote for HDP, and this may radically change the political landscape in the country.

One way or another, the domestic political situation in Turkey continues to be dynamic and full of high-profile events. The past month was no exception, and each event will generate serious consequences in the very near future.