THE NUKEY BLUFF

Contrary to mendacious propaganda tricks of the Armenian authorities, their recent defeat in four-day fights in Karabakh is the most obvious indicator of the current balance of forces in the region. Not only numerous losses of personnel and military equipment, but also the resignation of some high-ranked Armenian generals is an indirect recognition of this fact. Although the ceasefire on the frontline has been restored after the intervention of intermediaries and especially the Russian President Vladimir Putin, it became obvious that the connotation of “a frozen conflict” was not applicable anymore to the Armenian-Azerbaijani Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.

This time it was possible to prevent a war, which could bring forward unpredictable consequences not only for Azerbaijan and Armenia, but also the entire region. However, it is not guaranteed that the next failed attempt to promote peaceful settlement of the conflict will stop Azerbaijan from exercising its right of self-defense to restore the territorial integrity of the country. The understanding of this and the reluctance of Armenia to participate in peace negotiations as the weaker party urges the Armenian authorities to all sorts of tricks. The Armenian elite appeals to inadequate and provocative threats, that is bluff and blackmail using rockets and nuclear tools, which signals about the exhaustion of real means of struggle.

Let us recall the past events once more. Immediately after the April skirmish, the former Prime Minister and current member of the Armenian National Assembly Hrant Bagratian made a controversial statement about the availability of nuclear weapons in Armenia. Certainly, this would sound like an eccentric desire of opposition politician to attract, if it was not about an extremely dangerous issue. Especially as the Armenians had tried on the same nuclear bluff earlier through other sources.

Indeed, if there are no nuclear weapons in Ukraine, which has had practical experience and scientific potential in this field since Soviet times, how Armenia might have it? It is hard to believe that Armenians could have stolen or bought nuclear equipment and kept them during the collapse of the Soviets. Given the absolute control of Moscow over her Armenian satellite, even a mere probability of this fact (no matter how sophisticated does this sound) implies that the Russians would have regain the control over such weapons long time ago. A hidden transfer of nuclear weapons to Armenia by Russia is also out of question. Therefore, in reality, it is all about a so-called “dirty bomb” affair, when a conventional munition is puddled with nuclear waste to ensure radioactive contamination of the terrain and adversary facilities.

In practice, “dirty bombs” had never been used in any military conflict. They are inefficient and anyone, who risks radioactive contamination, will definitely have international political and legal consequences. It is possible that the Armenians falsely declare shells and bombs with pits made of Uranium-238 as nuclear weapons. This material is much heavier than the lead sheath and has a high penetrating power. Such munitions bear nuclear markings, and can cause some radioactive contamination. But there is no reason to call them nuclear bombs. The US military had used such dirty bombs in Iraq but this had not led to nuclear destruction.

Then, what is the meaning and purpose of the Armenian missile and nuclear bluff and blackmail? I used to read the articles of Armenian “military analysts”, who propose to employ the strategic theory of Carl von Clausewitz, as they recognize the weakness of their country in comparison with Azerbaijan. This outstanding Prussian military theorist of the XIX century described the three ways, which the weak opponent can use to defeat the stronger opponent almost without using force and without serious violations of regional or global order. To do this, Clausewitz recommends the following: “First, make sure that the enemy is not able to continue the fight. Secondly, convince the enemy that he cannot win. Third, convince the enemy that even if he wins, then his success will cost too much”.

Although due to various factors Azerbaijan lost 20% of its territory during 1993-94, its ability to continue the fight has never been questioned. Moreover, there is a huge difference between the capabilities of the opponents formed over past. Azerbaijan has a superiority in terms of its demographic, economic, financial and military positions. The April shootout has dispelled the myth disseminated by the Armenians and their patrons about the inability of the Azerbaijani armed forces to recover the lands. Therefore, the Armenian bluff about the mythical “nuclear bomb”, as well as the demonstration of Russian tactical missile facilities Iskander during the recent military parade in Yerevan are attempts to intimidate Azerbaijan. Baku is blackmailed with attacks on vital targets, if we use our integral and internationally recognized right for self-defense and dare forcefully free our territories from the Armenian occupation.

Do not even try that! A meeting with the participation of the senior administration of the Ministry of Defense was held on September 21 in Baku. As stated by the Minister of Defence, Colonel-General Zakir Hasanov, the Azerbaijani armed forces have rocket-artillery systems capable of destroying strategic and military targets of the enemy. The Azerbaijani military experts have noticed that it was possible to use the rocket systems Uragan and Smerch and the Turkish Kasirga TR-300 from the territory of the Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic to target vital facilities in Yerevan and elsewhere within Armenia. Therefore, the Armenian Iskanders do not change the military balance, which is in favor of Azerbaijan due to the purchase of new tanks, artillery and aircraft.

While some Armenian media quite emotionally disseminate information about the recent purchase of Russian Iskanders by Armenia, claiming that Azerbaijan can now forget about Karabakh, the thinking Armenian politicians and analysts do understand that the real situation is different. As stated by Alexander Iskandaryan, Director of Caucasus Institute and political scientist, on September 22, “the Iskander missile complexes will not help to prevent the escalation of the conflict as was in last April.”

However, regardless of whether the Iskanders are delivered to Armenia or they were just used in the parade to intimidate Azerbaijan and Turkey, Baku has a right to ask for an explanation from Moscow and to draw the attention of relevant international organizations on the unacceptable fact of spreading dangerous missiles. Even Washington refrains from the delivery of such missile systems to Turkey, which is the American ally and a member-state of NATO. Nor had Iskanders been delivered to Belarus, which is a part of the Union State together with Russia.

It is surprising that the international community keeps silence about the provocative statements on the availability of nuclear weapons in Armenia, and the demonstration of Iskanders. One can only imagine the extent of media coverage, as well as the statements of American congressmen and Western analysts, if Azerbaijan or any other Muslim state exposed such threats and demonstrated unconventional weapons.

Anyway, the Armenian missile and nuclear bluff and blackmail will not force Azerbaijan to accept the eternal prolongation of the status-quo or to agree to unacceptable concessions that infringe the sovereignty and territorial integrity of our state. If due to existing circumstances Azerbaijan refrains from large-scale operations on liberation of the occupied territories, then nothing can stop Baku from exhausting Armenia by means of transport and economic isolation, the full-court press on the contact line, the continuation of diplomatic and information war.

External support can help Armenians to persist in their claims to Azerbaijan for some time, but the continuation of the evil and dead-end policy only postpones the defeat, making it even more bitter and crushing. By clinging to the occupied Azerbaijani lands, the Armenians lose their own country every year. Due to territorial claims and hostility with its neighbors, Armenia has driven itself into a blockade and is not part of regional cooperation projects. Tens of thousands of Armenian nationals are leaving the country each year in search of better lives. The total number of immigrants since the independence of Armenia has exceeded a quarter of all births in the country. The return of the occupied lands will happen soon or later, but to return more than a million of countrymen scattered over the world to the historic homeland is unlikely.

Meanwhile, the co-chairs of the OSCE Minsk Group are going to visit the region in the near future. This is mentioned in the joint statement of the mediators released after the meeting of the Azerbaijani and Armenian Foreign Ministers in New York. We hope that the mediators - Russia, the US and France, which have traditionally favoured Armenians, will finally encourage them to take a constructive position in the negotiations, hence ensuring long-term peace and cooperation in the region.