A STRICT CONSERVATIVE

“Pre-election promises engage only those who believe in them, not those who gave them”, once said the French President Jacques Chirac. But the case of François Hollande was slightly different in 2012. It was not that the people from all walks of French society believed in his pre-election promises, rather they saw him as an antipode of Nicolas Sarkozy.

Now Hollande is going to leave, and this will most likely happen, not because he cheated to his voters, but because he has failed to offer an elaborate economic program. He has experimented a lot starting from somewhat socialist reforms (including the most resonant reform on increasing tax rates for the rich up to 75%) to neo-liberal reforms like the “El Homri Law”, which caused mass protests in the country this spring. The French took to the streets to defend their social achievements that the government was trying to take away partially to reduce unemployment. According to the Government, high unemployment rates are directly related to employers' reluctance to hire personnel due to expected complications with their dismissal. The “El Homri Law” provides for an increase of the working day, simplifying dismissal conditions, reduced payments and other unpopular measures.

Despite the reforms, the unemployment increased from 7 to 10-plus percent under the Hollande government. As a result, Holland’s credibility throughout his term has been steadily declining hitting the historical minimums ever and ever. In October, after the publication of the sensational book “A President Should Not Say That” written by a Le Monde journalist on the basis of conversations with François Hollande, the president completely lost respect of the population.

Therefore, the current Prime Minister Manuel Waltz is likely to represent the Socialists in the upcoming presidential elections next spring. It is believed that he is more likely to resist the traditional main opponents, the Republicans. Because of Hollande’s low ratings as a president, it was decided not to nominate him directly but hold primaries of the Socialist Party instead. The primaries will be held in January 2017. Initially, the Socialists wanted to hold general primaries for all the lefts, but the French Communist Party and the majority of “greens” making the so-called “ La Belle Alliance Populaire” established in June 2015, did not support this initiative. Apparently, former allies of the Socialists decided not to link their fate with the party that was not able to lead to victory in the upcoming elections.

Opinion polls are showing growing dissatisfaction in society with the situation in the country. The French have come to realize that the changes are inevitable and necessary, and that the socialism in its present form cannot continue.

Apparently, the citizens of the Fifth Republic in the forthcoming elections will study thoroughly the programs of presidential candidates for the presence of clear economic program and effective methods of combating terrorism. These two topics will be decisive in the election of the country's leader for the next five years.

The Republicans have nominated their candidate earlier than the Socialists and for the first time decided to carry out the selection not within the party. Two years ago, the leaders of the Union of People's Movement, renamed to the Republicans in 2015, have decided to hold open primaries. They invited the French citizens, who agree to sign the party’s political charter reaffirming their commitment to the ideals of the center-rights, and ready to make a €2 contribution, to take part in primaries.

There were seven candidates but three leaders supported by the results of opinion polls: the former president Nicolas Sarkozy, current Mayor of Bordeaux, Alain Juppé, and François Fillon. The last two headed the government at different times in the past. Moreover, Fillon did not appear the favorite of primaries with a weak media coverage.

So, the primary results were very surprising to many. The main news was the defeat of Sarkozy in the first round, which overcame Fillon and Juppé.

It was the second time in his career that Sarkozy said good bye to big politics. “For me, it is time to approach life with more private passions and less public passions. Good luck in France!” he said immediately after the announcement of results. At the same time, he called on his supporters to vote for Fillon, a man who Sarkozy has recently called “a pathetic type.” But, apparently, he made his mind quickly and supported the obvious leader.

It must be said that both Sarkozy and Juppe have one very significant weak spot – they are at odds with justice and Fillon took advantage of the situation. Sarkozy is accused of illegal financing of his 2012 campaign, while Juppe received 14 months probation 12 years ago for participating in fraud with jobs when he was Mayor of Paris under Jacques Chirac. In fact, he was well out of that, as he could be banned on political activities. “Can anyone for a second imagine General de Gaulle under accusation?” exclaimed Fillon, alluding to the fact that the candidate for the highest office in the State should be a model of integrity.

62-year-old François Fillon, who has been the Prime Minister for five years during the presidency of Nicolas Sarkozys, has thoroughly elaborated his campaign.

“I am running for president because I do not want my country be delivered to demagogues who can that lead to disaster.” said Fillon in his keynote speech. “I never wanted to be a president, but France has always been my passion. I am not a superman. I am a reliable man faithful to his convictions. The first condition of national revival is in respect of the past, in making history, in recognizing the real heroes who created our country.” he added later.

Fillon's opponents claim that he is not different from Sarkozy, as when he was a prime minister he has pursued economic policies with “right rhetoric, left action.” For example, despite the promise to lower taxes, they were and remained high.

In fact, during the election campaign, Sarkozy called Fillon “my co-worker”, thereby indirectly releasing him from liability. But there were rare exceptions, such as “François and I decided to close the embassy in Syria.”

To his credit, the winner of the primaries has not run away from liability for his actions in 2007-2012, but he stressed that the implemented policies actually belonged to the president. Now he has his own program, which, according to him, has been developed since 2013.

Le Monde calls Fillon’s program “a cocktail made of conservatism and Thatcherite liberalism.” He supports ultra-liberal reforms such as reducing government spending by €110 billion and the number of officers by 500 thousand people (currently about 5 million) while reducing the workhours from 39 hours to 35 hours per week for the remaining; increasing the retirement age from 62 to 65 years; the abolition of taxes for the rich; increasing VAT from 20 to 22%, but at the same time reducing the corporate income tax and social security contributions for businesses, etc.

Explaining his success, political analyst Bruno Cautrès drew attention to the shortcomings of the main contenders - Sarkozy and Juppé. The former president has paid less attention to the economy, while Juppé’s campaign has not appealed to the traditional conservative voters and the wider population. “Fillon is a classic conservative right candidate. He wants deeper reforms: reducing the role of government and reducing the social security system”, Reuters quotes Bruno Cautrès.

The Republican leader is a practicing Catholic and a father of five children. In particular, his nomination was supported by the opponents of the right to assist same-sex couples in using reproductive technologies. He also advocates for the replacement of the right of “full” adoptions with the right of “simple” adoptions that allows child retain legal family ties with real parents.

His rating has increased markedly when a month after the terrorist attack in Nice, he published a book, “How to defeat Islamic totalitarianism”. The drastic measures to combat terrorism provided in this book have prompted the residents of French villages, who had voted for Marine Le Pen, to support Fillon in the primaries. Many radical voters are also impressed by the proposal to deprive French citizens returning from Syria and Iraq of nationality, or to prohibit wearing burkini on the beaches.

Hollande decided to take only half-measures, such as deprivation of nationality of those terrorists who have dual citizenship. On the contrary, Fillon goes much further, and draws the votes of those who support the extreme right because they do not see a real alternative. Le Pen has 30% of votes of those who come to the polls, but not 30% of the electorate. That is the maximum she can guarantee, thanks to public frustration due to incompetence of deputies of municipal councils elected from the National Front - in Marseille, for example. Le Pen’s party fellow told Le Monde that Fillon’s conservative views could draw the votes of those who support Le Pen: “Fillon is a a right-wing candidate whose views are not much different from those of the National Front as far as the issues of national identity and family are concerned.”

Unlike Marine Le Pen, Fillon stands for the preservation and renewal of the European Union and more intensive integration of France into the EU economy. However, the potential rivals have similar views on Russia. Again, unlike Le Pen, Fillon has close friendly ties with Vladimir Putin. During his tenure as Prime Minister, Fillon insisted on the need to consider Moscow's interests. He supported the Russian operation in Syria, explaining that otherwise Europe would be faced with an even more powerful so-called “Islamic state.”

The elections in France are scheduled for April 23, 2017. The Republicans have the best chances to win them given the extremely low popularity of the Socialists and the supporters of Le Pen. Therefore, “Mr. Nobody”, as the local media dubs Fillon, has all chances to become the next president.

This year ends for Europe with two strong shocks - the withdrawal of the UK from the European Union and the election of Donald Trump as the next US President. The next year is expected no less rich in events that could lead to fundamental changes in the current political system on the continent. The question is who will come to power in France and will current German Chancellor Angela Merkel be elected for the fourth time. After all, the choice engages those who believe in promises.