TRUMP’S NUCLEAR TWEETS

The partial lifting of sanctions from Iran last year allowed the national economy to grow by 4%. For comparison, the growth rate of the Iranian economy fell to 0.4% in 2012. According to IMF forecasts, the expected growth is 6% in 2017. However, it is likely that it will be extremely difficult to achieve such a result. Potential investors, especially large multinational corporations, began to doubt the safety of investments in the Iranian economy.

"The gold rush is over", quotes the words of one of the businessmen the British magazine The Economist. One can only add: as soon as it started!

Disputes over missiles

On January 29, Iran tested a medium-range ballistic missile at a launch site to the east of Tehran, which flew about 600 km.

The US sources claim that on February 4, the Iranian army carried out a test launch of a rocket, this time short range - up to 50 kilometers. Iran's Ministry of Defense denies this accusation. According to the Iranian Minister of Defense Gen. Hossein Dehghani, the US statements about Iran's new missile tests are fabricated. In fact, such an explanation sounds a bit vague: "Firstly, it did not happen. Secondly, even if we did so, this does not concern the Americans." General added that Iran's missile program is planned in advance and "aimed at maintaining the country's defense."

The program of ballistic missile launches, if it exists, is kept in secret anyway. However, in the last year and a half, these tests are not the only ones. Yes, the Iranian side does not deny them (in particular, recognizing the launch carried out on January 29), noting that by doing so they do not violate international nuclear agreements concluded in the summer of 2015 between Tehran and other six countries (the US, Russia, China, Britain, France and Germany).

The work on this agreement lasted for nearly 12 years. The sanctions against Iran (because of its nuclear program) were first introduced in 2006 and tightened from year to year. Under the pressure of social and economic problems, in 2013, the country's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei decided to support the presidential election of Hassan Rouhani, who has been speaking for the establishment of a dialogue with the West. Incidentally, this politician took part in international negotiations on nuclear issues in the early 2000s, which means  he knows the subject quite well.

An interim agreement was signed in November 2013. Thanks to concessions in curtailing its nuclear program, Iran was allowed to increase export of oil and to use some of the funds kept in European banks.

And, finally, the Joint Comprehensive Action Plan on Iran's nuclear program (JCAP) was signed on July 14, 2015.

Tehran made a commitment to reduce the number of centrifuges from 19 to 5 thousand, to reduce the degree of uranium enrichment to a safe level of 3.67% and to reduce the stocks of enriched uranium from 10 tons down to 300 kg. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has been able to ensure comprehensive monitoring of activities for 15-25 years.

In addition, Iran is restricted acquire conventional weapons, missile technology and components for the production of ballistic missiles. But it is not prohibited to conduct independent development of weapons of any kind except nuclear, of course.

Tehran is also urged not to conduct any development related to ballistic missiles. However, the text of the resolution contains no direct requirements. According to the Iranian media, the fact that Iran's missile program has no relation to the conditions of the nuclear deal was confirmed by the EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Federica Mogherini. She coordinates the work of the commission, which monitors the implementation of this agreement.

The White House also acknowledged that the tests conducted on January 29 are not a direct breach of contract but destroy its spirit.

The prohibition on co-operation

Since January 2016, the sanctions relating to Iran's nuclear program were completely removed by EU countries only. The US have withdrawn sanctions partially.

On December 15, 2016, a bill to extend the sanctions for another ten years and approved by both houses of the Congress but not signed by President Barack Obama entered into force.

Recently, the US Treasury Department, accusing Iranian authorities of violating the UN Security Council resolutions and the provision of "material support" to terrorist groups, expanded the list of sanctions. It includes 13 individual and 12 commercial companies from Iran, China, Lebanon and the UAE, which are accused of providing Tehran with technologies and materials required for the development of missile programs. There is also the so-called "Secondary sanctions", according to which all companies and individuals that have entered into business relations with persons involved in the "black list", may also be subjects of the US sanctions.

It must be noted that during his election campaign, Donald Trump has always called Iran "a terrorist state" and an agreement with Tehran - "the worst deal ever". He has even threatened to cancel them, even unilaterally.

Trying to prevent such a development, in the beginning of January, 37 leading American scientists addressed to the president-elect with an appeal not to abandon the agreement on Iran's nuclear program. The authors, including one of the founders of the hydrogen bomb, physicist Richard Garwin and Jerome Friedman, winner of the Nobel Prize in Physics, believe that "JCAP has sharply reduced the danger of a sudden production of significant amount of materials needed to produce nuclear weapons by Iran."

This issue also concerns the allies of the US. "Our commitment to the nuclear deal with Iran remains one of the priorities of the EU. The US administration has assured me in the intent to fully adhere to the implementation of this agreement.", said Federica Mogherini recently.

It is more likely that the sanctions imposed on February 3 were ready long before the launch of Iranian missiles, and the recent public statement was only delayed for operational reasons.

On December 2, 2016, Financial Times reported that Trump's team was considering the imposition of additional sanctions against Iran. According to FT, the new administration will put pressure on Tehran in order to force Iran to cut support for armed groups in the Middle East.

Therefore, the recent Iranian military actions cannot be accidental. Not everybody in Iran, same as in the United States, are enthusiastic to accept the nuclear deal, and it is possible that there was a provocation on the part of the opposition to President Rouhani. Iran will hold the presidential elections on May 19, and the internal political struggle will intensify by that time.

Deceived "reformers"

The hardliners have not yet decided on their candidate for the post of the President of Iran. However, the conservatives tend to search for the one with military backgrounds. If General Qasem Soleimani (Commander of a special unit "Al Quds", which is part of the Revolutionary Guards) runs for president, he can win, as believe the people surrounding the Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei, due to intensified anti-American sentiment in society.

On February 10, Iran celebrated the anniversary of the Islamic Revolution of 1979. This year the celebrations were one of the most popular, thanks to the provocative statements of the new US president. Trump’s rough statements, especially his tweet "Iran is playing with fire - they did not appreciate how President Obama was kind to him. I do not like that!" caused uproar in the country.

The so-called "reformers", who once put a lot of effort to convince the leadership of the country to dismantle its nuclear program, now feel deceived. In particular, the Foreign Minister Javad Zarif, the main protagonist in the negotiations, said that Iran would face hard times. The former Iranian President Mohammad Khatami (1997-2005), who once advocated for the establishment of closer ties with the West, now urges reformers to join the hardliners and condemn the actions of the USA.

Eventually, Trump’s tough rhetoric toward Iran is supported in the Arab world but it is fraught with serious complications of the situation in the Middle East. For Iran has taken full advantage of the destructive processes that shook the region in the past six years to expand its political and military influence there.

The experts of the American Institute for the Study of War (Institute for the Study of War) concluded that Iran had forces of rapid deployment able in a short time to capture the territory located hundreds of kilometers away from the border. Thus, according to the ISW, the military potential of Iran has fundamentally changed the strategic balance of forces in the entire Middle East region.

Many, including the closest allies, are extremely alarmed by the US president’s response to the ballistic missile tests by Iran. When asked about the likelihood of a military response, the US president said "nothing is impossible".

There is no evidence that the White House has already developed some kind of strategy with respect to pressing on Tehran. In fact, Washington is not interested in this, as its priority in the Middle East is the fight against terrorist Islamic State. Iran, however, is an ally in this war to the US’s dislike.

Anyway, the mutual distrust and hostile attitude fueled on both sides can lead to global shocks. That is why the Big Business talks about the end of Iran's "gold rush".