A MULTIMOVE GAME

The situation on the Korean peninsula remains one of the most vital topics of the international politics. In general, the problem boils down to an impossibility of peaceful denuclearisation of the peninsula as long as the current regime, which has been conducting nuclear tests since 2006 in violation of the UN Security Council resolutions, remains in the DPRK. Both the neighbours of North Korea and the US believe that the DPRK poses a serious threat to their national security and the security of the entire Asia-Pacific region. Moreover, Pyongyang’s ability to create an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) capable of reaching the American mainland has prompted further fears in recent years. The Americans, South Koreans and Japanese periodically conduct military exercises alongside the demilitarized zone and in the seas surrounding the DPRK in order to intimidate its current leader, Kim Jong-un, which obviously forces the North Koreans to work harder to create and test their missiles. This vicious circle has been existing for years without bothering anyone but the experts until it led to yet another cycle of tensions.

Provocation for provocation

This spring, the joint US-South Korean maneuvers along Seoul and regular tests of the DPRK provoked the tensions followed by the increase of categorical statements from both sides. Washington announced its readiness to deliver a preemptive strike against North Korean military targets if Pyongyang decides to take another nuclear test. US Vice President Michael Pence warned that “the era of strategic patience” with North Korea's nuclear missile policy was over. As an indication of the gravity of the intentions, a group of US Navy ships led by the nuclear-powered aircraft carrier Carl Vinson and a nuclear submarine armed with Tomahawk missiles headed for the shores of the Korean peninsula. Japan's Marine Self-Defense Forces announced the launch of joint exercises with the Americans. On April 26, the US Air Force launched the ICBM Minuteman III from the base in California. The launch was of a planned one, yet it looked like a warning message addressed to Kim Jong-un.

There is no doubt that after the recent surprise attack on the Syrian airbase, North Koreans took the threats of the new US administration more seriously although they were not scared and promised to carry out a preventive attack “in response to any provocation by the United States.” North Korea’s Permanent Representative to the United Nations, Kim Ying Ryong, said that “the United States has created a dangerous situation, in which a nuclear war may start at any moment.” Rodong Sinmun, a newspaper of the ruling Worker's Party of North Korea, announced the country’s readiness to “sink Carl Vinson”, “wipe out” the US military in South Korea and “turn to the ashes” the continental United States. They promised that they would reach even Australia, which is “blindly and zealously toeing the US line” thus making a suicidal act of coming within the range of the nuclear strike of the DPRK.

The situation has heated up to such an extent that experts have already started talking about “the most serious crisis on the Korean peninsula since the war of 1950-1953”. The sources later reported that the US did not intend to use the military force but would focus on imposing diplomatic and sanctions pressure. A joint statement on April 26 from the US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, Defense Secretary James Mattis and Director of National Intelligence Dan Coates declared that the US President Donald Trump would pressure Pyongyang by tightening economic sanctions and pursuing diplomatic measures with allies and regional partners to stop the advance of Pyongyang’s nuclear and missile programs. Nor does Washington refuse to negotiate. President Trump has previously stated that his plans and further steps towards North Korea would not be announced. Knowing his unpredictable moves, it is hard to predict what he can actually do. Moreover, sanctions on trade, fossil exports, arms purchase and banking sector do not actually work, and Kim Jong-un is not going to abandon the tests either.

In fact, no one knows the real potential of Pyongyang. North Korea is considered the most closed country in the world, which is impossible to visit as a regular tourist and where the entire shoreline is isolated with barbed wires under voltage. For some, North Korea is a country of horrors where the people is persecuted for any reason and merely a sect of zombies professing the Juche. For others, not everything is as bad as the Western media propagates. It is even more difficult to tell what is true about the nuclear weapons of the DPRK. After all, the North Koreans have often been suspected in the simulated nuclear tests. According to a generally accepted view, North Korea possesses 10-16 nuclear warheads and more than 1,000 ballistic missiles. According to the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation of Nuclear Weapons, the range of North Korean missiles is 1000-1300 (Scud, Nodong) and 3,500 km (Musudan). Some experts believe that in three years North Korea will be able to equip long-range missiles with miniature nuclear warheads. At the recent military parade in Pyongyang, the DPRK demonstrated its Pukkuksong-2 submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM). This puts South Korea and Japan as well as the huge military infrastructure of the US and the American mainland into the risk zone. By the way, the Secretary of the US Department for Homeland Security, John F. Kelly, refused to say whether the US is protected from North Korean missiles. In addition to its nuclear potential, North Korea has an efficient army of a million armed people, military aviation, complex system of underground communications adjacent to the demilitarized zone, and powerful artillery, which demonstrated its potential during the April 15 exercises in the Wonsan port, and area within a safe reach of Seoul.

Therefore, the observers are concerned about possible steps of the US against the DPRK. In this situation, the use of force not only leads to numerous civilian casualties, a humanitarian catastrophe, but also poses a risk of nuclear contamination on the vast territory. Millions of people, large-scale industrial facilities and Western investments, US bases in South Korea and Japan, Asian markets are located in the epicenter of possible events. Moreover, with the impeachment of South Korean President Park Geun-hye, Seoul is currently concerned with the pre-elections and thus is limited in political instruments. According to the local media, the US administration has a few real experts on Asian affairs, and in general many posts in the State Department and Pentagon are still not occupied.

The Chinese factor

But the Korean problem is far from being solved. One of its remarkable components is THAAD (mobile ground-based exo-atmospheric anti-ballistic missile system designed to shoot down medium-range missiles). Amidst the crisis on the peninsula, the South Korean Defense Ministry confirmed the start of the THAAD installation in Seongju, Gyeongsang Province, despite the public protests and incomplete environmental assessment. According to the South Korean media, the THAAD battery in South Korea will have 4-9 mobile crawler tracks, each designed for eight interceptor missiles, as well as a TPY-2 TM anti-missile radar. The system is officially designed to shoot down the missiles launched from the territory of North Korea, but it also reduces the potential of Chinese nuclear forces and partially covers the part of Russia.

Therefore, Beijing has firmly opposed the deployment of the THAAD system in South Korea. Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesman Geng Shuang said that the actions of the United States and South Korea undermine China's strategic security interests, lead to an escalation of tension on the Korean peninsula and that Beijing will take decisive measures to protect its security. Incidentally, the same anti-missile systems can be deployed in Japan. Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has already expressed his support for this initiative. The Chinese do not exclude the creation of a missile defense system covering the whole of Northeast Asia. At a security conference on April 27 in Moscow including the deputy chief of the main operational headquarters of the Central Military Council of China, there were concerns that the US could use the crisis around North Korea to create a worldwide network of missile defense systems.

China, which is the only country that has economic ties with Pyongyang, is indeed in a difficult situation. Turning a blind eye to existing situation means a calm acceptance of the US military superiority in the region and the threats for the Middle Kingdom. Neither does China need a war between North Korea and the US, which will eventually end in the defeat of North Korea. Not only because Beijing will face possible environmental consequences and a huge flow of refugees, but also because the fall of North Korea, a buffer state for China, will lead to the unification of South and North Korea and the emergence of American bases near the Chinese borders. Therefore, it is advantageous for Beijing to leave everything as it is. It is likely that the provocative behaviour of North Koreans is irritating Beijing, which has even stopped importing coal from the DPRK since February and recently suspended air communication with Pyongyang. By the way, Russia has exactly the same interests as China, to a lesser extent though. It is also not satisfied with the US presence in this part of the world and the possible unification of the two Koreas with a likely approach of the US military to its borders.

Therefore, saying that the Korean conflict boils down to a confrontation between North Korea and the US with its allies means simplifying the situation by large. Rather Trump started a multimove game with no explicit enemies or allies, but all of them may be used to achieve strategic or positional benefits. It seems to be a normal situation both in business and in politics. It becomes clear now why the American president, who was speaking of China as the main geopolitical rival of the US during the presidential campaign, then suddenly declared that he had a special relationship with Xi Jinping. Or why Trump cancelled the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TTP) thus giving China just a royal present. Maybe he had other ideas to achieve the American goals, when the limitation of China has always remained a priority.

Thus, we cannot rule out completely a probable conflict on the Korean peninsula. Sabre rattling can provoke a real uncontrollable situation. Neither can we preclude a likelihood of events when the Americans, with all the risks worked out in advance, decide on a lightning strike on North Korea. It is most likely though that the existing cycle of tensions will be smoothed over by Beijing’s and, possibly, Moscow’s pressure on Pyongyang.