A STEP TOWARDS PEACE

"We have lived together for five thousand years, and we live apart for only seventy years. We are one nation," President of the South Korea Moon Jae-in said in his address to 150 thousand North Koreans gathered at the Pyongyang stadium on September 20. For the first time in the history of Koreas, the South Korean President could address the people of North Korea directly.

65 years ago, the 1950-1953 Korean War claimed almost 5 million lives and ended not with peace but a truce and division of the Korean Peninsula into two countries, which implies that both countries are de jure at a state of war. Until recently, relations between the two countries became increasingly tense with provocations from the North getting more dangerous every day.

To protect its ally, the US deployed two air bases and one land base on the South Korean territory. As a counterbalance, the North Korea (DPRK) began developing nuclear weapons in the 1970s. In December 2015, Pyongyang announced that it had a hydrogen bomb. Since last year, the North Korean President Kim Jong-un has tried to convince the world community that not only can his ballistic missiles reach the territory of the nation's main enemy, the US, but they can also hit any location in the country.

In response, both the United Nations and the United States launched a sanctions campaign against the North Korea (since 2006), which have become increasingly tougher each following year. The relaxation or withdrawal of sanctions is directly related to demilitarisation and nuclear disarmament of the North Korea.

When "Rocket Man" becomes Excellent

In November 2017, after testing the next intercontinental ballistic missile, the North Korean leader Kim Jong-un made a completely unexpected statement about peace and the urgency to improve relations with his southern neighbor, South Korea. As a gesture of goodwill, he even allowed his athletes to perform at the Winter Olympics Games under a single Korean flag.

Since the beginning of 2018, relations between Pyongyang and Washington, the guarantor of South Korea’s security, have changed dramatically. More recently, Donald Trump, who had previously threatened the North Korea with "complete destruction" because its leader was a "Rocketman", has suddenly called his counterpart an "open and excellent" person.

The meeting of the heads of the US and the North Korea in Singapore in June was obviously an extraordinary event that was impossible to even dream of a year ago. It was a rather pompous summit with lots of smiles and hot handshakes on the camera, with loud statements about the urgency to turn the Korean Peninsula into a nuclear-free zone, etc. However, these promises have not materialised so far.

According to a recent UN report, the North Korea continues to develop its nuclear program. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has data on intensive uranium enrichment work in the country.

Therefore, new sanctions followed immediately after the "warm" meeting of both leaders. Pyongyang was notified that the US was not going to sign the peace declaration, which would imply the end of the war, let alone lift the sanctions until Pyongyang fulfils Washington’s demands, which have since been regularly stated by the US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo: to submit a complete list of nuclear weapons, laboratories and test sites to the UN, to transfer 60–70% of the nuclear arsenal within 5 to 7 months to a third party, and to stop uranium enrichment.

After the summit in Singapore, Mike Pompeo has visited Pyongyang three times. At the end of August, he was planning the fourth trip but just a day before the visit, the US president cancelled it when Pompeo received a letter from a senior North Korean military officer, who indicated the meaninglessness of talks and expressed his dissatisfaction with the fact that the US President did not keep his word.

At the same time, the main North Korean newspaper, Rodong Simung, accused the US of "double standards" and "organizing a criminal conspiracy" against Pyongyang.

The newspaper claimed that while Washington officials "are engaged in a dialogue (with the North Korea), the US is planning to send special forces to the North Korea for sabotage.

Donald Trump, however, does not make sharp responses yet trying to demonstrate that he is in control of the situation, the arrangements with Kim Jong-un are in force and everything is going in the right direction, albeit with difficulties. Sometimes one can even hear statements about the relevance of holding a second meeting.

Saying that the US President did not keep his word, the North Korean general had likely implied that Donald Trump promised Kim Jong-un to sign the peace declaration before North Korea starts dismantling its nuclear program. And that the conditions (prerequisites) voiced by Mike Pompeo appeared later.

Breaking the deadlock

While negotiations between the US and the North Korea remain deadlocked, the South Korea is taking quite active and successful steps to build relations with its northern neighbour. Meetings of family members, once separated by war, were resumed. The South Korean Ministry of Defence is not averse to removing references to North Korea as its "enemy" in its annual official report.

It is speculated that one of the reasons of the recent visit of the South Korean leader to Pyongyang was a desire to overcome the current impasse in the nuclear talks between the North Korea and the US.

Another likely but no less compelling reason is a decline in public confidence in President Moon’s domestic policies. When he took the office last May, opinion polls demonstrated high rating of public support (more than 80%). Economic stagnation, increasing unemployment and high housing prices have noticeably reduced Moon's popularity, and by the summer of 2018, his rating did not rise above 50%. On September 18–20, just when Moon Jae-in and Kim Jong-un met in Pyongyang to agree on military, economic, and social cooperation between the two countries, president’s rating rose sharply to 61%.

This is not the first visit of the South Korean president to the capital of the North Korea. In 2007, the then President of South Korea, Roh Moo-hyun, and Kim Jong-un's father had already agreed, to no avail though, to mitigate military confrontation, create a special zone of peace and economic cooperation on the Yellow Sea. The current generation of Korean politicians is confident that this time everything will be different.

The scope of possible cooperation is impressive. South and North Korea agreed to intensify cross-border exchanges and work together on balanced economic development of the Korean peninsula.

The borderline between the both states will be cleared of mines with the military presence significantly reduced. A buffer zone will be established in the Yellow and Japan Seas and will be closed for military exercises. It is also planned to form a joint commission to resolve conflicts.

Economic cooperation implies the resumption of joint logistics, industrial and tourism projects that were in effect before, but then were closed for various reasons. After all, the heads of leading South Korean companies such as Samsung, LG Group, Hyundai, and others accompanied President Moon during his recent trip to Pyongyang.

For instance, it is planned to build railways and highways that will connect South Korea with the Trans-Mongolian and Trans-Siberian highways, which, among other things, will facilitate the delivery of South Korean goods to Europe. However, sceptics are not sure that these plans will be implemented soon considering the huge number of existing economic and political problems.

Meanwhile, the resumption of a large technopark near the North Korean city of Kaesong looks quite real. It has functioned successfully since 2004, until Seoul closed it in 2016 in response to nuclear tests.

The countries also agreed on the establishment of a special economic and a tourist zone along the coasts of the Yellow and Japan Seas, respectively, the filing of a joint application for holding the Olympic Games in 2032, and so on.

However, all this is possible only if North Korea withdraws from its nuclear programs and if international sanctions are lifted. And here is the problem. Apparently, Kim Jong-un is agree to make this step, when in July, the country started dismantling of nuclear facilities at the Sohe rocket and space complex. A month earlier, North Korea handed over to the US the remains of more than 200 soldiers killed during the war. Now the North Korean leader is waiting for a gesture of goodwill from the American president.

We are waiting for the second meeting

Donald Trump called the joint declaration between North and South Korea "a historic event" and during his meeting with President Moon at the 73^rd session of the UN General Assembly announced that he would soon make a statement about the venue and time of his second meeting with Kim Jong-un.

According to the US media, some American officials are concerned that President Trump has an overly optimistic look at events in North Korea. Inside the administration, there is a strong resistance to signing a peace declaration because it does not provide any tangible benefits but the consequences of this step may not be the most pleasant. For example, Pyongyang will require partial or even a complete withdrawal of the 18,000-strong US military contingent from the territory of the South Korea.

But there are those who support the signing of the declaration. First, the declaration is still not a peace treaty but it will provide additional benefits to the US in realising their demands regarding the North Korean nuclear program. Secondly, this is a good PR move in the context of political interests of the Republicans before the mid-term elections to the Congress on November 6. Finally, Donald Trump still hopes to get the peace prize.

But here comes the $64K question, albeit a bit annoying one. The actions of the South Korea, the US and the world community are logical, hence predictable. But who knows what Mr. Kim has in his mind…