"DEAR AUNTY EUROPE…"

"Dear Aunty Europe,

I'm writing on behalf of your poor cousins from the Western Balkans: Serbia, Montenegro, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Macedonia, Kosovo, Albania… Fourteen years ago, in Thessaloniki, we were solemnly promised that one day, not too far in the future, we should all be allowed to move to your big house in Brussels and sit as equals at your table… So we tried. We really did. We stopped fighting, kept our rooms clean as much as we could, we were nice to neighbours... As we came to realize that you don't really want us to join, we slowly started letting go. We also started playing with those bad kids, like Vlad, and Recep, and Abu Bakr, and that new orange brat Donnie. You did warn us to stay away from them, but in your absence, we needed friends…

But you have demonstrated, again and again, that the only way to get your attention is to make as much of a nuisance of ourselves as we possibly can. And we're just starting.

Don't say you weren't warned.

Yours truly,

The Western Balkans.. "

This was an excerpt from the open letter written back in 2017 by the late Serbian journalist Dejan Anastasijevic. Then there were new discussions and new conditions... For example, Macedonia was forced to change its name in order not to anger Greece. Macedonia did this, despite the negative attitude towards this in the country. French President Emmanuel Macron insisted on this more than anybody else, promising an early EU membership for the country.

But then it was Macron who in October 2019 vetoed another attempt to begin final negotiations with Albania and Macedonia, which is now called the Republic of Northern Macedonia. Anastasijevic couldn't see this for obvious reason having died six months before, otherwise he would have probably written a new letter in more angry tone.

Hazardous region

The French president explained his decision, which actually meant stopping the enlargement of the EU for an indefinite period, by saying that the EU is facing too many problems to let in countries from a region that has not yet recovered from the wars of the 1990s and where the fight against crime and corruption is not always effective.

Macron believes that political, economic and social transformations necessary for future accession to the EU are moving too slowly among potential candidates because the current EU enlargement mechanism is inefficient and needs to be reformed.

Macron categorically refused the proposals of other EU member states to start negotiations with Northern Macedonia and Albania in parallel with the reforms, because he's against any new members in the union until the completion of reforms within the EU.

French proposals

Currently, the EU accession process has a vertical structure: first, the countries sign an association agreement, then they are given candidate status and, finally, with the unanimous approval of all EU member states, the main accession negotiations begin, during which the candidate state tries to bring its national laws in accordance with EU regulations. If successful, the accession agreement is handed to the EU Council for approval and ratification by each of the current member states. The whole process is divided into 35 thematic blocks—from the compliance of food standards to foreign policy and security issues. Once the candidates agree to carry out the necessary reforms, they are accepted as full members and gain access to European programs, as well as tens of billions of euros annually in the form of EU subsidies.

The French, on the other hand, propose a seven-stage new process with "stringent conditions for effective rapprochement with European norms and standards" plus the EU's ability to refuse membership negotiations at any time if the candidate state deviates from the standards. According to the proposal, a candidate who no longer meets certain criteria or ceases to fulfil obligations gradually loses the previously acquired rights. At the same time, as candidate states succeed in the seven-stage reform process, they can gain access to selected EU programs and funds even before they reach full membership.

The completion of negotiations at each stage will open up the opportunity to participate in relevant EU programs, to be associated with a specific industry policy and, if necessary, to benefit from a specific targeted funding. For example, having passed the first stage (bringing national legal system in line with the European one), a candidate state will be able to start cooperation with the EU judicial authorities in The Hague. The second phase covers areas such as education, youth, culture, telecommunications, energy and environment. Following this stage, a candidate state is provided an access to the so-called Horizon 2020 scientific grant program and the Erasmus student exchange program. Successful completion of the stage concerning economic and financial issues guarantees the candidate state membership in the EU banking union. Should it also pass the 'single market' requirements, it can get access to multi-billion subsidies from various structural reform funds.

One of the main principles of the French proposal is focused on the criteria for the transition from one stage to another. They can be based on indicators set by the EU and other international organisations such as the Council of Europe, GRECO and OECD.

Proponents of Macron's proposals found the following positive aspects in them. First, they believe, if candidates are allowed to gradually join EU policies, the moment of actual entry will become less tough and even frightening, including for member states. Secondly, gradual accession would allow candidate state to 'practice membership', for example, by participating in a council without the right to vote.

More important than promises

In addition to France, Sweden and the Netherlands also drew attention to prematurity of admission of Albania to the EU. However, the reaction of all the other EU member states to French veto against Northern Macedonia was irritant.

EC President Jean-Claude Juncker called the decision "a serious historical mistake", explaining that "if we want to be respected, we must fulfil our promises." Indeed, for decades, Brussels has repeated as a mantra that for all who meet the criteria of the EU, the doors to the union would be open. Now it turns out that EU internal reforms are more important than promises.

According to Macron's opponents, the longer the EU enlargement process slows down, the more difficult it will be to maintain motivation for much-needed reforms in the Balkans. The higher the level of uncertainty in the EU's intentions regarding the countries of the region, the weaker will be the leverage of the EU in these countries to fight crime and corruption, to overcome the further lag of democratic reforms. There are also fears that Russia, China, Turkey and the Persian Gulf countries will not be slow to take advantage of the situation to expand their influence in the Balkans.

It was expected that the leaders of Northern Macedonia and Albania would also be outraged by yet another refusal to accept them as candidates for EU membership. They immediately declared that the EU was pushing them to the risk of strengthening nationalism and curtailing economic reforms.

In Northern Macedonia, the failure of the negotiations led to the announcement of early parliamentary elections now scheduled for April 12, 2020. Prime Minister Zoran Zaev was forced to resign due to the inability of his government to keep promises about the start of the EU accession process. He expressed concern that the growth of nationalist sentiments in society could lead to the fact that the agreement with Greece, according to which Macedonia, under pressure from Greece and other EU countries, took an unpopular step among the population to rename the country, could be revised.

No trust

The EU now faces a difficult task of restoring a shattered confidence and a plausible image of the European path for applicants. Many in Europe agree that changes along this path are necessary, but France's approach to this problem has jeopardised the future of the European project.

EU leaders agreed that by January 2020, the European Commission, on the basis of proposals from France and other countries, will develop recommendations for proposed reforms to the EU accession process in order to return to voting on Northern Macedonia and Albania at the EU-Western Balkans summit in May.

However, under the existing circumstances, when the EU guarantees no longer inspire confidence, it will be more difficult to overcome differences and compromise.