IRISH REPUBLICANS BEAT LOYALISTS

Elections to the Northern Ireland Regional Parliament became a notable event in British political life, and more broadly in pan-European politics in general. For the first time in Ulster's history, the nationalist Sinn Féin party, which advocates Northern Ireland's secession from the United Kingdom and its annexation to the Republic of Ireland, won in the number of seats.

'We Ourselves' on the rise

On May 5, Sinn Féin (We Ourselves) achieved a historic victory for the first time in more than a century after winning in the Ulster Assembly elections. The party, which represents the interests of the Catholic population in the British part of Northern Ireland, won 27 seats in the regional parliament. Hence it beat the influential Democratic Unionist Party representing the interests of the Protestant population (25 seats), and the smaller Alliance Party, the Ulster Unionist Party and the Social Democratic Labour Party.

Sinn Féin positions itself as a national-republican organisation, which has gained popularity not just as a campaigner for Northern Ireland's self-determination and unification with the Republic of Ireland. For many years it has been considered a political wing of the paramilitary Irish Republican Army (IRA). It has been at the centre of a bloody confrontation between republicans, who support unification with the Republic of Ireland, loyalists, who advocate keeping Ulster within the UK by any means, including non-peaceful means, and unionists, who reject any violence in defence of union with London. In almost 40 years of real war marked by violent clashes involving the army and police, street battles and terrorist attacks, over 3,500 people have been killed and around 50,000 wounded.

In 1998, the British and Irish governments and the conflicting parties in Ulster signed the Belfast Accord, also known as Good Friday Agreement. Thus the conflicting parties declared the cessation of hostilities and began forming a new government of the Northern Ireland on a parity basis, i. e. with republicans and unionist loyalists, Catholics and Protestants. Nevertheless, the final peace did not actually come until 2007. London took an unprecedented step of exempting a number of IRA activists from criminal liability, including, in particular, one of the prominent leaders of Sinn Féin, Martin McGuinness, who was personally involved in the preparation of at least one terrorist attack but served as Deputy First Minister of Northern Ireland in 2007-2017.

Meanwhile, given Sinn Féin's historical experience and its principled position on the political future of Northern Ireland, as seen by the party exclusively outside Britain and in a single state with the Republic of Ireland, the main intrigue of the Ulster Assembly elections held in May has emerged.

Even before the election, experts warned of an expected victory for Sinn Féin, whose popularity has grown in recent years in both parts of Ireland. In 2020, it was a major success in the Irish Lower House elections, winning a quarter of the seats and outperforming each of the two traditionally successive parties, that is the liberal Fianna Fáil (Soldiers of Destiny) and the conservative Fine Gael (Tribe of Ireland). This achievement was seen as a historic break in the two-party system that had developed since Irish independence in 1922. At the end of the 2020 election, Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael, despite nearly a century of rivalry, formed a coalition refusing to engage with Sinn Féin. Although the latter was left out of government, it remained one of the leading Irish parties.

The new success of Sinn Féin in the Ulster political arena has provided further evidence of the strengthening position of Irish nationalists. Experts believe that the victory of Sinn Féin in the elections could pose serious problems for London and the territorial integrity of the United Kingdom. After all, the party’s list of priority demands continues to include the holding of a referendum on the secession of Ulster from the UK and its unification with the Republic of Ireland.

To be or not to be?

During the election campaign, the main opponent of Sinn Féin, the Democratic Unionist Party relied heavily on a clause opposing a possible referendum on Ulster’s secession, should the Nationalists win. A clause that would help to mobilise the pro-British part of Northern Irish society and increase London's pressure on the political situation in Ulster.

But is the risk posed to the integrity of the UK by the political success of Sinn Féin really that serious?

The Times of Britain calls the current leadership of the Irish nationalists the New Generation of Sinn Féiners, meaning that it is not radicalised and is not at all inclined to engage in violent confrontation with the British government.

Indeed, the current leaders of Sinn Féin have little to do with the former rebellious Irish nationalists, who did not shy away from any method of fighting the British crown for the sake of uniting both parts of Ireland.

The head of the party is former MEP Mary Lou McDonald, who leads the opposition in the Republic of Ireland. Her deputy Michelle O'Neill, who incidentally is the daughter of an IRA member, is at the helm of the party organisation and appears to be taking over as Ulster First Minister.

Michelle O'Neill called the last election the beginning of a ‘new era’ in Northern Ireland, "a defining moment for our politics and our people". She promised to create a leadership that "guarantees rights and equality for those who have been excluded, discriminated against or ignored in the past". However, O'Neill did not make any specific threats to British integrity during the campaign or as leader of the winning party and potential prime minister. Observers note that in her campaign speeches she has predominantly voiced socio-economic rather than nationalist slogans. This fact has attracted even more attention because Sinn Fein's socio-economic platform has a left-wing orientation, including the fight against poverty, increasing the public sector in the economy, establishing a state fund for small and medium-sized enterprises, and making healthcare available to all. In the current debate, however, Sinn Féin has placed particular emphasis on the need to fight inflation against the war in Ukraine.

But does this mean that Sinn Féin is abandoning the priorities of its political agenda, in particular, the idea of holding a referendum on Ulster's secession from the UK and unification with the Republic of Ireland?

Apparently not, given O'Neill's statement that secession of Northern Ireland remains the ultimate goal of the party she leads. But it is also clear that Sinn Féin will not push for a referendum if party leaders see the outcome of the vote unfavourable. Recent opinion polls show that only a third of Ulster residents support the idea of a united Ireland. Whereas the 1998 Northern Ireland Act passed after the signing of the Good Friday Agreement stipulates that Ulster will not cease to be part of the UK without the consent of a majority of its population. Moreover, the minister for Northern Ireland in the British government can only call a referendum if an opinion poll suggests that a majority of Ulster residents want the region to secede.

Thus, the victory of Sinn Féin in the recent elections does not mean that a referendum is inevitable, or the unification of the two parts of Ireland in the foreseeable future. Nevertheless, it may not be quiet in Ulster either, especially taking into account the events of previous years, when even the slightest incident could lead to a storm of political passions. In April 2021, for example, riots swept through a number of towns in Northern Ireland, including the administrative centre, Belfast. The reason was the prosecutor's decision not to punish Sinn Féin officials who attended the funeral of IRA member Bobby Storey in the summer of 2020, during the coronavirus lockdown. Incidentally, Michelle O'Neil was among the lockdown violators who also took part in the famous militant's funeral ceremony. These events showed just how fragile peace is in Ulster, which continues to be divided between the supporters of separation and union.

Northern Ireland continues to be a major challenge for London. However, the situation also has a European dimension. After Brexit, Britain's withdrawal from the EU, a possible secession of Ulster and its subsequent merger with the Republic of Ireland, a member of the EU, directly affects the interests of continental integration.