SECOND BREATH

In late April, the Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan paid an official visit to Saudi Arabia. It has been five years since the last high-level visit in 2017. After a long break, such a high-profile event in relations between the region's two major states could not but trigger heated discussions in the global media.

The visit came right after an early April ruling by a Turkish court to hand over the criminal case on the murder of the Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi to Saudi Arabia. In other words, the visit took place only after the parties had taken necessary steps to reconcile. As expected, the meeting took place in the atmosphere of goodwill and mutual understanding. The same was not true for the Saudi media, which tried to see behind the Turkish leader's visit Ankara's intention to get financial aid from the Saudis to counter the current spike in inflation in the country.

Indeed, this factor was one of the reasons for the visit. It is no secret that amid cooling relations with the West, the Turkish economy is unable to get the necessary amount of investment, which has caused the country's national currency to depreciate rapidly, while the economy urgently needs so-called hot money. According to Reuters, Ankara intends to negotiate a $10-20bn swap deal with Riyadh.

On the other hand, the visit also has a clear political dimension and is based not only on Turkey's unilateral interests like lending money. It is clear that Saudi Arabia is no less interested in the outcome of the meeting.

Difficult, but possible

Relations between Turkey and Saudi Arabia, two powerful Muslim powers in the Middle East, have always had ups and downs. However, during Erdogan's reign, relations have been particularly warm. The same has not been true for bilateral relations after the Arab Spring. The first undesirable incident between Turkey and Saudi Arabia took place during the events in Egypt, when Ankara decided to support the Muslim Brotherhood movement against the interests of the Saudi and Gulf monarchies. Events that led to Marshal Abdel-Fattah al-Sisi's rise to power in Egypt in 2013 exposed the contradictions between Ankara and Riyadh, as the latter supported the army, while Ankara supported the Muslim Brotherhood and the ousted President Mohamed Mursi. However, the relations between the two countries have not been cool during this period, especially in Syria, where Ankara and Riyadh are still on the same side.

Another confrontation between the two countries took place in 2015, when Libya was split in two. As a result, Turkey began supporting the Islamist Government of National Accord in Tripoli, while Saudi Arabia backed the government of the House of Representatives in Tobruk and provided all support to the Libyan National Army led by General Khalifa Haftar.

During Saudi Arabia's military campaign against the Yemeni Houthis, Ankara was on Riyadh's side, albeit only verbally.

Yet another round of tensions between Turkey and Saudi Arabia took place in 2017, when Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Egypt and Bahrain imposed an embargo on Qatar, triggering a latent but tangible confrontation between the two countries. This was followed by Ankara’s deployment of troops to Qatar to prevent the risk of Saudi Arabia's military intervention in the country.

Finally, in 2018, the Jamal Khashoggi incident became a turning point in relations between the two countries. This experienced journalist and analyst, presumably of Turkish origin, was also known for his close relations with the opposition in the Saudi political circles. It was reported that Khashoggi left Saudi Arabia during the purges initiated by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and moved to the US, where he began publishing his articles in the Washington Post. Khashoggi had visited Istanbul frequently and even prepared to marry a Turkish citizen. On October 2, 2018, he entered the Consulate General of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia in Istanbul and did not come out. It was later reported that the prominent journalist had been murdered and his dismembered body was found in a well at the Saudi consul's residence just 500 metres from the consulate building.

The event has completely suspended the relations between Saudi Arabia and Turkey. In response to Ankara's categorical position, Riyadh retreated and, despite initially denying its involvement in the crime, conducted an investigation that led to the arrest of more than twenty people, including the Saudi officers from army and intelligence services.

The incident has seriously worsened the relations between the two countries. Representation between Ankara and Riyadh, including at the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC), has declined. The king of Saudi Arabia did not attend the OIC events in Turkey, while the Turkish president's visit to the kingdom was cancelled.

Changing circumstances

As mentioned above, there were not only economic or financial reasons behind the Turkish president's recent visit to Saudi Arabia. The presence of treasury, finance and trade ministers in the Turkish delegation, as well as the negotiations between the finance ministers of both countries just before the visit, have demonstrated the significance of economic issues during the discussions. But there were a number of other issues on the Turkish president's agenda that were of no less importance to the Saudi leadership. It would be wrong to evaluate these kinds of visits only in the context of single-sided interests.

Seriously stuck in Yemen and failing to achieve the desired results in Lebanon and Libya, Saudi Arabia is now trying to reshape its regional policy as Turkey.

The fourth round of talks between Saudi Arabia and Iran has already been held in Baghdad. The two countries, which were on the brink of war a few years ago, are now trying to find common ground on a number of regional and bilateral political issues, including the Yemen conflict.

In addition, following the cooling of relations with the West and amid serious criticism of Riyadh, Saudi Arabia is trying to close and coordinate its actions with regional players. For example, the deterioration of relations with the US in recent months has been accompanied by the kingdom's rapid rapprochement with Israel and the development of ties with China.

Riyadh is also taking steps to secure a truce with Ankara. It was clear that the stalemate in the Saudi regional policy was also due to the ongoing cooling of relations with Turkey. Therefore, being interested in reconciliation with Turkey, the Saudi leadership warmly welcomed Erdogan to Riyadh. On the other hand, in its quest for rapprochement with Israel, the kingdom needed the serious political and psychological support of the Arab-Muslim community that Ankara could provide.

It is known that Saudi Arabia is planning to implement a number of new mega-projects, including the construction of cities and tourist centres. Therefore, close cooperation with Turkey in this area is beneficial for the Arab government. According to Arab experts, at some point, it may be necessary to involve experienced Turkish companies to implement the plans that Saudi Arabia has slated for implementation until 2030.

Mr. Erdogan's visit to Saudi Arabia after five years promises new political moves to reshape the region. As with the UAE, Turkey is sort of resetting its relations with the region's leading and wealthy Arab countries in an effort to restore the foreign policy vector of relations that have been undermined in recent years.

Ankara has already restored relations with the UAE, Israel and Saudi Arabia at the highest level. It is noticeable how Turkey is rebuilding the extensive contacts and influence in the region that existed before the Arab Spring. Policies that came with the Arab Spring and were shaped under the influence of chaotic ideological and political conflicts are losing their significance, giving way to pragmatic and mutually beneficial policies. This is the concept that the Middle Eastern countries are building their policies upon today. Apparently, in an attempt to get prepared for a new stage of relations.