LEAVING KHERSON

Ukrainian troops liberated the only regional centre held by Russian military since the beginning of the war with Ukraine. This was a truly decisive event of the entire military campaign. Along with growing patriotic sentiment in Ukraine and the strengthening of the country's international prestige, there is growing speculation that this may be the beginning of the full restoration of Ukraine’s territorial integrity.

From Kherson to Crimea

Discussions about the preparations for a Ukrainian counter-offensive in the south of the country have been ongoing since this summer. However, Ukrainians were in no hurry, apparently calculating their potential so that an offensive in the south would not weaken their positions on the eastern front.

Overall, by autumn the front line had already stabilised along its entire length. Observers unanimously note the increasing level of training of the  Ukrainian troops, as well as the improvement of their technical potential, which positively affects their combat capacity. Massive military and political support for Ukraine from the West has been productive. Both in terms of image and military training, the Ukrainian army looks much stronger and more successful than the Russian army.

As a result of the Ukrainian attacks on Russian positions in the east, and especially in the south of the country, the military and strategic situation underwent significant changes. Unable to defend the right bank of the Dniepr River and with the massive offensive undertaken by the Ukrainian army, the Russian military and political leadership decided to withdraw from Kherson and the surrounding areas.

Initially, Kiev was sceptical about Russia's intentions and urged not to trust the reports.

Meanwhile, the US reported on the first signs of the retreat of Russian troops from Kherson. It was predicted that the process might take weeks. But they did not come true, and within a day the Ukrainian troops already entered the city.

In addition to the forced retreat from Kherson, there were reports about the Russian defence of Crimea, which also demonstrates the situation with the Russian military. According to media reports, Russians are digging trenches in the northern part of Crimea. There are new fortification facilities, particularly near the Jankoy checkpoint between Crimea and Kherson and near the town of Armyansk on the Perekop Isthmus. There is also an active construction of protective structures in Kherson Oblast, for example, near the village of Novotroitskoye along the road to Genichesk.

No negotiation

Apparently, the Russian military expects the Ukrainian army to continue the offensive in the southern direction to regain control of Crimea.

A total of up to half of the seized territories have been liberated during the counter-offensive by the Ukrainian Armed Forces. According to analysts, the Russian side now controls over 124,000 square kilometres of Ukrainian territory. At the same time, as of November 6, the Ukrainian military liberated 75,000 sq. kilometres. This is 37% of Ukraine's territories held by Russia since 2014, or 50% of what came under Russian control after February 24, 2022.

The success came at a heavy price. Ukraine continues to bear the brunt of the war. Every day, the country's towns and villages suffer from massive shelling and critical infrastructure is destroyed. Since October 10, Ukraine's energy infrastructure has been targeted by Russian troops, depriving the country of more than 30% of its energy capacity. Ukrainian President Zelensky said in his video message that over 4.5m people were left without electricity. According to him, the worst situation is observed in Kiev and Kiev Region.

According to observers, unable to respond adequately and effectively to Ukrainians on the front, Moscow is trying to weaken the Ukrainian infrastructure and military logistics. It may also anticipate social discontent. However, it is clear that people continue to support the country's authorities and are even more averse to Russian actions.

Almost simultaneously with Russia's decision to leave Kherson, Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said that the Russians were ready to negotiate with Ukraine "taking into account the current realities".

The Ukrainian side represented by the Foreign Ministry spokesman Oleg Nikolenko said that Moscow was manipulating the statements about negotiations with Ukraine and once again rejected any possibility of holding such negotiations.

On November 8, the French President Emmanuel Macron said at the environmental summit in Cairo that the negotiations should take place on the terms of Kiev, but without "absolutely radical ones".

Earlier, the Italian newspaper La Repubblica reported that Ukraine's European allies welcomed the start of negotiations as soon as Kiev regains control over the Kherson Oblast. NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said that Ukraine's success in possible negotiations with Russia would depend on the situation on the battlefield.

Zelensky later said that Ukraine could find a format for dialogue with Russia if the Russians retreat from the occupied Ukrainian territories and admit that they made a "terrible mistake".

However, there are differences of opinion among the Western states on this issue. The leaders of the so-called old members of the EU support the start of real negotiations between Kiev and Moscow. At the same time, the new EU members represented by the Eastern European countries, as well as the US and the UK do not support this idea at the current stage.

US elections: no discussions on support for Ukraine

Meanwhile, the outcome of midterm elections in the US may also have an impact on the situation in Ukraine. Specifically, the prospects for material assistance to the country.

It is no coincidence that just before the election, President Zelensky urged the US to remain united in its support for Ukraine amid concerns about the consequences of a Republican victory. Kiev is afraid that if the Democrats lose control of the House and Senate, the enormous financial and military support provided to Ukraine may shrink.

However, many believe that such fears are not justified, as most Republicans support aid to Ukraine. This topic is one of the few where the interests of Democrats and Republicans converge. However, in the run-up to the midterm elections, some prominent figures in the Republican Party, especially the supporters of the former president Donald Trump, expressed doubts about the expedience of funding Ukraine. Right-wing Republican populist Marjorie Taylor Green told at the Trump rally in Iowa in October that "not a penny will go to Ukraine" if Republicans win, as US interests should come first. The House minority leader, Republican Kevin McCarthy, who is tipped to be the new speaker of the House, said that while support for Ukraine was important, if Republicans controlled the Congress, the previous unconditional aid would no longer be available. However, other Republicans have criticised these statements.

Meanwhile, Trump's protégés, about half a dozen Republicans who were part of the MAGA (Make America Great Again) group, were defeated, with many of them having received lower-than-expected results. These people included a significant number of critics of the current policy of aid to Ukraine. Internal opposition to the Trumpists consisted of politicians who, on the contrary, supported maintaining the pace and scale of this aid.

Former Vice-President Mike Pence has even called for active support for Kiev. So did Michael Waltz, a member of the House Armed Services Committee, who stressed that most Republicans were in favour of helping Ukraine. This position was also supported by several key Republican senators, including Mitch McConnell, the Republican leader in the Senate.

The US is by far Ukraine's largest financial backer. Since the start of the war, Washington has provided $18.9 billion in aid to Ukraine, almost twice as much as Ukraine's European allies.

With a Republican victory, aid to Ukraine may still be subject to additional approval and greater scrutiny of funds. Kevin McCarthy said that if Republicans took control of the House, the party's lawmakers will not stamp out new legislation to support Ukraine as before. With some of the party's most conservative lawmakers urging to stop the aid, it can lead to fierce debates over President Biden's new demands for more funding to Ukraine. "I am very supportive of Ukraine. But I think we need more accountability in the future... We always need to have conviction that the funds are going where they need to go. And we need to make sure that the Congress and the Senate have an opportunity to discuss this openly," McCarthy said.

However, Moscow does not expect that with the Republicans winning majority in the Congress and the Senate, US aid to Ukraine will decrease. This means that the counter-offensive by Ukrainian troops will continue.

In his video address on the occasion of Kherson's liberation, Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky said that this success will be followed by the Ukrainian army in Donbas and Crimea, which means that for Ukraine the complete liberation of its territory is already a matter of time.