KNIGHT'S MOVE

Confrontation between Baku and Yerevan sees a surge in diplomatic activity. US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken had telephone conversations with the Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan. Charles Michel, President of the European Council, also had a telephone conversation with the leaders. Toivo Klaar, EU Special Representative, announced his visit to the region...

Meanwhile, the Azerbaijani media published some leaks suggesting that the foreign ministers of Azerbaijan and Armenia, Jeyhun Bayramov and Ararat Mirzoyan, have been invited to Washington. Secretary Blinken made a remarkable statement at a Senate hearing. According to him, Azerbaijan and Armenia may soon reach peace agreements. "I believe there is a favourable opportunity. I don`t want to exaggerate, but there is a favourable opportunity that allows us to actually finalize a peace agreement. I met [this year] with Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev at the Munich Security Conference. Foreign ministers [of Azerbaijan and Armenia] were in Washington relatively recently. I expect that they will return. We were working on the text [of the treaty]," he reportedly said. It seems that the long-awaited breakthrough in the settlement of relations between Baku and Yerevan is just around the corner. But...

Provocations amid hopes

Unfortunately, amid hopes of common sense and diplomatic success, Armenia has unleashed another round of provocations in the region, including in the diplomatic sphere. In response to Ilham Aliyev's visit to the village of Talish to welcome the local residents returning to the area after years of occupation Yerevan demanded the return of ethnic Armenians to the "Azerbaijani-controlled territories". During his meeting with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, Ararat Mirzoyan made the usual accusations and categorically demanded that an "international fact-finding mission" be sent to Garabagh. Then, in his interview with Egyptian media, he used the old tricks claiming that an "international mechanism" be needed to guarantee the rights and security of Armenians of Garabagh. He received a harsh response from the head of the press service of the Azerbaijani Ministry of Foreign Affairs Aykhan Hajizade. He called Mirzoyan's attempts to distort the essence of negotiations "absolutely unacceptable". Speaking about the requirements of international mechanism, Hajizadeh said: "Attempts to include this clause in the draft bilateral peace treaty contradict the norms and principles of international law and demonstrate that Armenia has still not renounced its territorial claims against Azerbaijan. These attempts will be unsuccessful."

Perhaps the Armenian side has been encouraged by Sergei Lavrov's statements during his meeting with Mirzoyan. Speaking about Garabagh, Lavrov said that everything would depend on the extent both sides observe the previously reached agreements. According to Lavrov, "guarantees of safety for the people of Garabagh and ensuring their rights must be resolved between the representatives of Garabagh and Baku. We encourage the parties to do so. But we need to understand the quality of these agreements." He then recalled the Minsk agreements regarding eastern Ukraine, as well as the commitments made between Belgrade and Pristina, which stipulated the rights of local residents. "For the Garabagh people we need roughly the same set of rights. Everything will depend on the decency of those who will implement the agreements. In the above cases, there is no room for decency," Lavrov said.

Parallels between Garabagh and Donbass have understandably caused bewilderment in Baku. Admittedly, the Russian ambassador was not summoned to the Azerbaijani foreign ministry, nor asked for clarification of Mr. Lavrov's statements. Nevertheless, Minister Lavrov gave a very unfortunate example. What did he mean by mentioning Russia's recognition of the independence of LDPR, then the Ukrainian war and, finally, the referendum on the inclusion of Donbass in the Russian Federation? Even if he was referring to agreements discussed between 2014 and 2022, the parallel still looks very unfortunate. The Minsk agreements on Donbass were signed at a time when Ukraine needed to stop the fighting and put the war on pause. Russian peacekeepers entered Garabagh after Azerbaijan had liberated Shusha and then another 70 villages and settlements in two days. It was not the case that the Armenian side puffed up its cheeks and raised the bar of demands.

By the way, the region already had the "Steinmeier formula" and the "Minsk agreements" - in the form of proposals from the OSCE negotiating group, which, ironically, was also called the Minsk Group - but it was Armenia that refused to implement them, let us recall, but not Azerbaijan. The same Armenia that after 44 days of war has to negotiate on different terms. Azerbaijan is ready to guarantee the rights and security of Garabagh Armenians, whom it considers its own citizens. But this is being discussed with the Garabagh Armenians themselves, without the involvement of Yerevan or international actors.

Many experts believe, not without reason, that the Armenian authorities are simply afraid of signing a peace agreement. They are well aware that it is not going to be easy to present this news to the audience.

Dangerous games

As a result, Armenia is launching a new round of provocations in the region. On March 20, the first day of Novruz celebrations, an Azerbaijani border guard was wounded in Zangilan. But the most dangerous is the situation in Garabagh. Armenia began to move weapons and personnel to the region along the Khankendi-Khalfali-Turshu dirt road, under the cover of Russian peacekeepers' armoured personnel carriers. Civilian and humanitarian cargo is calmly moving along the Khankendi-Shusha-Lachin road. This means that they are taking bypass roads to transport something that cannot be transported past the environmental activists.

Baku has repeatedly warned at the highest level that such actions were unacceptable. It has reminded that under the trilateral statement, the Lachin-Shusha-Khankendi road could be used as a link between the temporary peacekeeper deployment zone and Armenia. The road can be used for the transportation of humanitarian cargoes, not mines and ammunition for 10,000 Armenian soldiers still hiding in Garabagh in violation of all agreements. And there is no alternative road for this communication.

There is a limit to patience. Baku reached that limit on March 24. The Azerbaijani army occupied a strategic height and took control of the Khankendi-Khalfali-Turshsu road. The Azerbaijani Armed Forces also took under their control the dirt road, which the separatists were trying to construct. The operation was quick, smooth and bloodless.

Then on March 30 the Azerbaijani Ministry of Defense reported taking control of several dominant heights, main and secondary roads as well as the vast border area between the villages of Jagazur and Zabukh in Lachin. As the ministry noted, this was done "in connection with the commissioning of the new Lachin road".

This is not just about stopping illegal transit. Baku has once again demonstrated that its warnings are not meant to be ignored. Azerbaijan will not tolerate the illegal transportation of weapons through its territory. By enforcing the four UN Security Council resolutions during the 44-day war, Azerbaijan is just as capable of implementing the Trilateral Statement.

Incidentally, Baku is launching a new initiative from a completely new position. The administration of the president proposed to hold a new round of dialogue with the Garabagh Armenian community in Baku to discuss reintegration and infrastructure projects in the region. And there is no alternative to this dialogue.