TERRORISM TO BLAME

There is a serious crisis heating up between Pakistan and Taliban-controlled Afghanistan after the former expelled Afghan refugees from the country. However, the roots of the escalating situation lie in deeper security concerns for Pakistan and the entire region.

Afghans of Pakistan and Taliban

In early October, Islamabad ordered all foreigners illegally in Pakistan to leave the country voluntarily. The decision primarily concerns almost four million Afghan refugees currently residing in the country. The first wave of Afghan emigration to Pakistan took place during the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan. The second wave was recorded in 2021, when some 600,000 Afghan citizens fled the country after the radical Taliban returned to power.

As a result, some 1.3 million Afghans are now registered as refugees in Pakistan, while another 880,000 have been granted legal status to remain in the country. But there are 1.7 million illegal Afghans in Pakistan, now told to leave the country within a month, by November 1.

On November 2, Pakistani authorities started forcefully deporting illegal Afghan migrants. Tens of thousands of people and hundreds of trucks are crowding the checkpoints between Pakistan and Afghanistan.

The UN urges Pakistan to reconsider the decision because of the possible oppression of the deported Afghans by the Taliban. In addition, the deportation of more than a million people could cause a humanitarian crisis in Afghanistan, which is al;ready suffering from a difficult socio-economic situation, as well as the recent natural disasters. In particular, the devastating earthquakes in the west of the country a month ago, which killed almost 2,500 people.

Meanwhile, the Taliban government, which has proclaimed the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan, announced guarantees of a peaceful life for Afghans who fled the country for political reasons and are now returning to Afghanistan. Yet, the Taliban regard Pakistan's move as unacceptable and therefore subject to immediate reconsideration. Relations between Kabul and Islamabad also worsened after the reports of mass arrests in Pakistan of Afghans who voluntarily refuse to leave the country and the confiscation of their property by the Pakistani authorities.

The Taliban's reaction was sharp: "No one has the right to take away personal money and property of Afghans forced to return home." That's how the Afghan government warned Islamabad. Afghan Deputy Foreign Minister Sher Mohammad Abbas Stanikzai, for instance, referred to the Taliban's "trained forces that defeated NATO and America two years ago". "We hope and expect the security forces and the civilian government of Pakistan to change their behaviour rather than forcing us to react to their actions. The response of the Afghans is well known to the world. The Afghans have not reacted much so far, but if they do, it will be recorded in history. Thank God we have a strong defence force today," Stanikzai said.

Obviously, the Taliban government does not favour such developments, as the country is on the verge of famine, with 10 million of Afghans having been deprived of assistance from the UN World Food Programme "due to a huge shortage of funding". In such a situation, the return of more than 1.5 million refugees can cause the most unpredictable consequences, including the collapse of the Taliban's plans to attract foreign investment, build and lay pipelines and transport routes, especially since Pakistan is also expected to join all these projects aimed at revitalising the Afghan economy.

However, Islamabad is adamant about the expulsion of illegal Afghan immigrants, simply because it regards their continued presence in Pakistan as a threat to its security.

Security risk

Amid the worsening relations between Pakistan and the Taliban government of Afghanistan, it is worth recalling that Islamabad has also contributed to the creation and subsequent support of the Taliban. However, the latter later broke away from Islamabad's influence, especially after their return to power in Afghanistan.

Meanwhile, in Pakistan, a local Taliban group, the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (Taliban Movement of Pakistan), has emerged, with Pashtos living in the country (the largest ethnic group in Afghanistan) occupying the dominant position in the organisation. Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan is actually at war with the Pakistani government, trying to achieve autonomy for the Pashto tribes, albeit under the slogan of ensuring purity of Islam.

Islamabad believes that the Afghan Taliban is behind the Pakistani Taliban and demands that Kabul neutralise the Afghan-based militants operating against the country. Although the Taliban government of Afghanistan denies any links to the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan, Islamabad refuses to continue co-operation with Kabul unless the latter admits contacts with the Pakistani Taliban, ISIS and al-Qaeda. According to Pakistan, it is these three groups that constantly attack the country, carrying out terrorist attacks and then hiding on Afghan territory.

Islamabad links the deportation of Afghan illegals to the recent increase of acts of terror, claiming that many of the migrants are involved in criminal activities and have links to extremist movements in their home countries.

Pakistani authorities stated that the decision to expel Afghan refugees was taken after more than twenty terrorist attacks since the beginning of this year have escalated tensions along the border between the two countries. One of the most deadly acts of terror was the bombing of a mosque in Mastung, Balochistan, Pakistan's largest province bordering Afghanistan and Iran, claiming the lives of more than 50 people. In early November, right after the start of deportation of Afghan illegal immigrants, the Pakistani military neutralised a group of terrorists attempting to attack the Mianwal Air Force base in the central part of the country. The Tehrik-i-Jihad Pakistan, a group linked to the Pakistani Taliban, claimed responsibility for the attack.

Anwar-ul-Haq Kakar, an ethnic Pashto and the head of the interim government of Pakistan, gave a detailed picture of the current situation. He confirmed that deportation of illegal Afghan migrants was related to the fight against terror and expressed his government's regret that the Afghan territory was still used for terrorist activities against Pakistan after the regime change in Kabul, and the Taliban coming to power again in August 2021. "Unfortunately, since the establishment of the interim Afghan government, terrorist incidents have increased by 60%, while the suicide attacks in Pakistan have increased by 500%. In the last two years, terrorists from Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan killed 2,267 innocent civilians in this tragic bloodshed. The team of suicide bombers also included 15 Afghan nationals. In addition, 64 Afghans have been killed so far while fighting with Pakistani law enforcement agencies during the counter-terrorism campaign," Anwar-ul-Haq Kakar said.

Meanwhile, terror against Pakistan is intensifying in the run-up to the national elections scheduled for January 2024. Despite the enhanced measures of Pakistani authorities to prevent such activities, it seems that the terrorist groups are trying to destabilise the political situation in Pakistan and demonstrate the vulnerability of its security system. But why?

Experts suggest that the West led by the US is trying to use the Taliban to deter Pakistan's growing co-operation with China. In particular, the goal is to prevent or frustrate any economic, transport and infrastructure projects planned or implemented by Islamabad and Beijing in Pakistan, including the Pashto population centres in Baluchistan. In addition, the deterioration of relations between Pakistan and the Taliban can also disrupt Chinese economic activity in Afghanistan, if Chinese investors refuse to participate in projects in the country without Islamabad's consent.

However, the Pakistani-Afghan escalation, regardless of its geopolitical background, is an integral part of the general instability in the central regions of Eurasia. Political turbulence in these regions is taking on new and sometimes most unexpected manifestations. Such as the tension between Islamabad and the Afghan Taliban hardly imaginable a few years ago.