WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITIES

Finally, the situation in the South Caucasus is transforming from what could have been described as a cautious optimism to a confident one. Slowly but steadily. On December 13, Azerbaijan and Armenia exchanged prisoners using the 'all for all' formula. Armenia returned two and Azerbaijan returned 32 POWs, including the saboteurs. Relevant statements issued by the parties following the exchange expressed mutual support for numerous projects on international issues. Thus, as a sign of goodwill, Armenia supported Azerbaijan's candidacy to host the 29th UN Climate Conference (COP29), while Baku supported Yerevan's membership in the Climate Conference Bureau.

The news about the release of Huseyn Akhundov and Agshin Babirov immediately made the headlines in Azerbaijan. Both were serving near the Azerbaijani district of Sharur, where they got lost at night due to poor visibility and strayed into Armenian territory. We knew that the Azerbaijan's leadership would not abandon the soldiers on their own. So it was not only their families who rejoiced at the release.

According to the expert community, particularly outside the South Caucasus, the exchange of prisoners suggests that Azerbaijan and Armenia have taken a big step towards reducing tensions and building a truly long-term peace.

Behind the scenes

First reports about the agreement on the exchange of prisoners appeared on December 7, when the media outlets in both countries published the text of a joint statement by the administrations of the President of Azerbaijan and the Prime Minister of Armenia. The document was the result of direct negotiations, i.e., without intermediaries, between representatives of Baku and Yerevan. Almost all external players welcomed the consensus.

The details of negotiations remained behind closed doors. This is understandable given the sensitivity and delicacy of the issue. Specialists noted that the news about reaching the agreement appeared shortly after the visit of US Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs James O'Brien to Baku.

Nevertheless, there is no consensus in the expert community that the prisoner exchange agreement was brought by the high-ranked American guest. O'Brien was primarily trying to save bilateral relations between Baku and Washington, for enough problems have accumulated in recent weeks and months. At the same time, neither Baku nor Washington wanted a large-scale crisis. The day before, President Ilham Aliyev had a telephone conversation with the US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken. During the conversation initiated by the Americans, Blinken asked Aliyev to receive his assistant. In response, Aliyev put forward a condition to cancel the decision on the suspension of high-level visits of Azerbaijani representatives to the US. Specialists unanimously note that bilateral relations between the US and Azerbaijan are improving, as O'Brien announced the possibility of such high-level visits. But it is unlikely that in such a situation the American diplomat would complicate the already difficult negotiation process with Baku with the Garabagh issue. Azerbaijan emphasises that the agreements on the exchange of prisoners have been reached through direct negotiations without intermediaries. And this is a very important diplomatic shift in the region.

War for peace

It was Azerbaijan's military victory in Garabagh that has completely changed the situation in the South Caucasus. Experts warn that when the zones of de facto control do not match the internationally recognised borders, it is possible to achieve a long-term truce, but not peace. Long-term peace is something else entirely and must be developed gradually. Obviously, the calls such as "peace is better than war", "let's negotiate, not shoot", the conflict has no military solution" are not enough for real long-term peace.

But now there is a window of opportunity for achieving real long-term peace in the South Caucasus. Azerbaijan's anti-terrorist raids in Garabagh and the fall of the illegal junta in Khankendi allowed Azerbaijan to fully restore its territorial integrity and state sovereignty, but above all they removed the main obstacle to achieving long-term agreements between Baku and Yerevan. It is Azerbaijan that offers and dictates the terms of peace today. And they are good to all countries of the region, including Armenia itself.

"I think this should also be analysed by international experts: a devastated, completely destroyed country, which had survived thirty years of occupation, ethnic cleansing and genocide, offered peace immediately after liberation, with no help from international mediators. It was we that offered peace to Armenia… We said that we needed to conclude a peace treaty. We said that we needed delimitation commissions. It was not Armenia that said that. Brussels didn't do it. It wasn't Washington, Paris or Moscow that did it. It was done by us. This is how the process was launched. Azerbaijan has repeatedly emphasised at all levels that Baku considered the Armenians of Garabagh its own citizens," President Ilham Aliyev said at the forum Garabagh: Returning Home After 30 Years. Achievements and Difficulties.  In his dialogue with the participants of the forum, Aliyev recalled the following as well: "Our proposals (to the Garabagh Armenians) were absolutely acceptable and based on the best practices, on the European conventions on national minorities, languages, the right to education in mother tongue, religious, cultural and municipal rights, the right to choose their own representatives in municipal elections. We have even informed them about our municipal elections scheduled for the end of 2024, so that they could also participate. They can choose their own representatives as municipal leaders. What else were we supposed to give or offer them? This was the maximum possible. Everything has been done in an absolutely transparent manner." Azerbaijan did not make any attempts to squeeze Garabagh Armenians into Armenia or anywhere else. Yet Azerbaijan did not prevent them from leaving Khankendi freely.

Peace without mediators?

On which platform can a peace treaty between Azerbaijan and Armenia be signed? In fact, there are many mediators. According to diplomatic sources, a meeting of the foreign ministers of Azerbaijan and Armenia in Washington, DC will take place in early January. However, Baku reported that the date of the meeting has yet to be agreed. Many observers also noted that a bilateral meeting between the Azerbaijani and Armenian foreign ministers did not take place at the recent forum of foreign ministers of the EU and Eastern Partnership countries. This also confirms that the focus of the negotiation process is shifting to meetings without mediators.

It may seem that reputable mediators could assume the role of guarantors of agreements and other functions. But Azerbaijan suffered their jealousy and competition back in the nineties, which in no way contributed to the effectiveness of the negotiations. After the end of the 44-day war, Russia, the US and the EU introduced their missions in the region. Thanks to Russian mediation it was possible to adopt the November 10, 2020 trilateral statement, which was supposed to be the roadmap for the peace process. The mediation of the EU led to the Prague agreements, where Azerbaijan and Armenia confirmed their readiness to recognise each other's territorial integrity. Apparently, such influential forces have created illusions among the Armenian diplomats that Armenia's ability to negotiate favourable peace terms with mediators in exchange for geopolitical preferences can leave Azerbaijan's no room for manoeuvrers. Undoubtedly, these are nothing but illusions. Azerbaijan had not bowed during the negotiations even when a fifth of its territory was under Armenian occupation, let alone after the unconditional military victory of Azerbaijan. So it is Azerbaijan that Armenia needs to negotiate with and not to seek mediation from anyone else.

Today, Azerbaijan initiated the birth of a completely new diplomatic reality in the region - direct negotiations without intermediaries, which prove to be more than effective. Thus, Baku and Yerevan agreed on the exchange of prisoners followed by the agreed procedures for a joint commission on border delimitation.

Certainly, this is not yet the signing of a peace treaty. But it is undoubtedly a positive step. But will Yerevan be ready for real peace, given that it still hosts the elements of the overthrown Garabagh junta. Also, on December 10, separatists tried to celebrate the anniversary of the referendum on Garabagh's independence again. That's when the Armenian MPs from the ruling Civil Pact called the separatists' actions "a bomb planted under Armenia".

So further developments in the region will largely depend on the political will of the incumbent Armenian leadership to defuse this bomb.