ENDLESS WAR?

As the new year begins, Israel's conflict with Hamas has reignited with increased intensity. Both politicians and analysts concur that the trend of escalating tensions is likely to persist, potentially leading to a complex crisis situation across the region.

Catalyst for conflict

It is known that on January 2, a senior Hamas leader, al-Arouri, was eliminated in Lebanon. This operation was executed as part of an order issued by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at the end of November 2023 to identify and eliminate Hamas leaders.

In response to this, a Hamas spokesperson informed mediators that it was suspending discussions on a hostage exchange with Israel. This signals a new round of regional confrontation. Concurrently, Hezbollah, an ally of Hamas, and the Lebanese leadership have indicated that they will not let Israel's actions go unanswered.

On December 23, the Lebanese newspaper Addiyar reported that Mossad, the Israeli foreign intelligence agency, planned to assassinate three high-ranking members of Palestinian organizations in Lebanon, including al-Arouri. This leaves little doubt about who is behind these actions.

Given that key Hamas figures frequently visit Türkiye, their lives could also be at risk. To deter the Israeli leadership from such plans, Ankara warned Tel Aviv of "the serious consequences of espionage activities on Turkish soil". Fahrettin Altun, head of the Turkish Presidential Administration's Liaison Office, stated on January 2, "If they make such a mistake, they clearly do not understand Türkiye or the Turkish people. If they dare to do such a thing, they should realize that they will have to pay a very high price for it. Such attempts carry the risk of the most severe consequences," Altun quoted Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's remarks from December 2023 on social media.

The detention of 34 individuals by intelligence services on suspicion of working for Israeli intelligence can be seen as evidence of potential Mossad activity on Turkish territory. Raids were conducted in eight provinces of the republic, with a primary focus on Istanbul.

Conflict expansion

The frequent bombardment of Lebanese territory by Israel threatens to further complicate the regional situation significantly. Israel has already evacuated more than 80,000 people from its side of the border, while in Lebanon, nearly 75,000 people have fled without much assistance from the crisis-stricken government, according to UN estimates.

The Lebanese Government, crippled by a financial crisis caused by years of corruption and mismanagement, has been unable to provide any support to its citizens. However, that does not mean that the tens of thousands of Israelis who have been displaced from settlements along the northern border with Lebanon are any more comfortable. While they are provided with temporary shelter, the increasing intensity of cross-border strikes between Israel and militants of the Lebanese paramilitary group Hezbollah makes it difficult to feel safe. Because of these strikes, they have not been able to return to their homes for almost three months and do not know when they will be able to do so.

Despite a long history of armed conflict with its neighbours, Israel has never before relocated such a large number of people within its territory. The decision to relocate them was prompted not only by the escalation of Hezbollah attacks but also by fears that the group might attempt to invade Israel, as Hamas did on October 7.

The geographic expansion of the conflict is linked not only to tensions along the Israel-Lebanon border but also to the intensifying confrontation in the Red Sea region.

Several nations, including the United States, have issued warnings to Yemen's Houthi militias about potential repercussions if they continue their attacks on ships in the Red Sea, one of the world's busiest trade routes.

"The Houthis will face the consequences if they persist in jeopardizing the lives of seafarers, the global economy, and free navigation on the region's most critical trade routes. We remain committed to a rules-based international order and are determined to hold malicious actors accountable for unlawful seizures and attacks," stated a joint declaration from Washington and its allies issued by the White House.

Conflict in the Red Sea

The Houthi attacks on commercial ships in the Red Sea have presented oil tanker operators with a dilemma: either accept the risk of traversing the danger zone or lose business.

Despite the ongoing threat of attacks and patrols by US and other military vessels, some oil companies insist that their chartered vessels maintain the same route rather than circumnavigate Africa to deliver their cargoes, as the latter would mean an additional two weeks and naturally, higher transport costs.

While individual oil companies, including bp, have stated they will avoid the region, others continue to use the Red Sea, which provides access to European markets via the Suez Canal. These are primarily carriers whose cargoes are not destined for Israel.

Recently, the delivery of crude oil and refined products through the Suez Canal has decreased by about 40 per cent.

Gradually, the oil industry is adapting to the heightened risks. Some tankers are circumnavigating Africa, while others are transporting cargoes to Asia. The increasing exports of diesel and other refined products from the US are helping Europe offset declining flows from India and the Middle East.

It's worth noting that some energy resource producers, especially in the United States, may even benefit from this situation. This factor is one of the reasons why the threat from the Houthis has had such a minimal impact on energy prices. The price of Brent crude oil, currently around $77 a barrel, is only slightly lower than it was when Hamas militants attacked Israel, initiating the bloody war in the Gaza Strip. Meanwhile, European natural gas prices have significantly decreased.

While the existing transport routes through the Red Sea and the Suez Canal are important, there are alternatives. It should be mentioned that the largest oil tankers have always tried to avoid the canal due to its size. Therefore, the current situation will not make any significant adjustments to the delivery routes. While the owners of individual gas carriers have decided to temporarily avoid the Suez Canal, ships from Qatar, a key gas supplier to Europe, continue to use the Egyptian route - perhaps believing that the Houthis will not attack a shipowner whose country supports Hamas. Meanwhile, natural gas prices in Europe have further decreased due to the mild winter.

The war in Gaza and internal political complications

Regarding the situation in the Gaza theatre, Tel Aviv reported that a tunnel under Al-Shifa Hospital was dismantled in November. According to Israel and its allies, Hamas had been using the medical facility as a human shield to protect a large underground militia compound. The 250-metre tunnel led to several major terrorist centres and was used by them for operations.

Military operations are currently focused around the town of Khan Younis in the southern Gaza Strip. Earlier, it was reported that the IDF is planning a multi-phase campaign against Hamas, which is expected to last at least a year. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu has already announced the beginning of the third phase of the war against Hamas - the expansion of ground infiltration into the Gaza Strip, with the aim of controlling the entire territory of the rebel enclave.

Another critical task is the governance of the sector once the war ends. Israeli Defence Minister Yoav Galant has already proposed a plan. Under this plan, the Palestinian leadership would govern under certain conditions, while Israel would maintain control over security in the sector.

Of course, it would be unrealistic to expect that anyone in the Palestinian leadership would accept such a plan. It has also been met with disapproval in the Arab world.

It appears that Israel recognizes that the Arab side is unlikely to agree to such a proposal. The proposal seems to be more of a strategy to divert the government's critics from domestic issues and to showcase the Israeli authorities' peaceful intentions towards the Palestinian population of Gaza.

In terms of domestic politics, in the early days of January, the Israeli Supreme Court decided to delay a new law that makes it more challenging to remove the Prime Minister from office. The law stated that an incumbent prime minister could only be declared unfit for office and removed from office by a vote of three-quarters of the cabinet and two-thirds of parliament. Previously, the prime minister could be declared unfit to hold office by the attorney general and the court.

However, the Supreme Court ruled by a majority (6 to 5) that the law would come into effect when the next parliament is elected. Two days earlier, the same court had overturned a law limiting Netanyahu's power to block government action as unreasonable, sparking a significant internal political conflict.

Regardless, the war continues, bringing with it uncertainty. Israel believes in its victory, while Gaza is also determined to fight to the end. The future of the region remains uncertain.