UNCHARTED PATHS

France has been showing its support for Armenia in various ways. Baku suspects that Paris, and to a lesser extent Berlin, are behind the scandalous events in the PACE. As history shows, changes in the French government do not change the pro-Armenian stance of Paris' politics.

For example, the new French Foreign Minister Stephane Sejournet said in a speech to the diplomatic corps that "France will stand by Armenia". The French Ambassador to Armenia Olivier Decotigny was quick to share this news with enthusiasm.

Emmanuel Macron also made a reference to Armenia in his address to the country's armed forces, saying that "in 2024, we will tirelessly defend our overseas territories and face the challenges of being a great nation. I could mention the Balkans, Armenia, which attracts our attention and leads us to strengthen our position and make historic decisions, especially regarding Armenia, which I just mentioned."

In theory, this "love fest" between Armenia and France should inspire optimism and suggest great geopolitical opportunities in the region. But what is the reality? Does France really hope to gain something from its Armenian direction, while Armenia has found a powerful ally?

What does Paris want in a distant land?

What are Paris' real intentions towards Yerevan? It is no secret that French politicians use the Armenian issue mainly to solve their domestic problems. This was shown by Eric Zemmour's visit to Armenia, as well as Valerie Pecresse's trips to Karabakh when the junta ruled there.

Macron is unlikely to win another term, and he does not need the Armenian vote. But he does not want to leave a mess for his successor. First, the rise in fuel prices sparked the "yellow vests" protests. Then Macron's pension reform met with strong opposition from voters. Now France is facing farmer protests, with government buildings being set on fire and covered with dung.

Macron dissolved the French government and replaced key ministers. According to many experts, this was meant to be a "sacrifice for redemption", to "calm the anger", to give voters the impression that new people with new ideas and programmes would come... But French farmers are stubbornly sinking these hopes, pardon me, in manure. France does not trust Macron and probably never will. This means that the president and his team have no choice but to appeal to small but united groups. For example, appoint an openly gay man, Attal, as the head of the government, put his partner in the cabinet and get the votes of the LGBT community. Pass the migration law through parliament and take away the far-right votes from Le Pen. And supporting Armenia allows them to win the favour of French Armenians, ultra-right and Christian fundamentalists. And Paris thinks that it can get votes on the Armenian front without much effort. It is enough to make statements, gestures and pose, like Anne Hidalgo, in front of trucks with humanitarian aid.

However, it turns out that the cost of Armenian votes is much higher than expected. Azerbaijan is reacting to this "love fest", and reacting strongly. Total has not been kicked out yet, but contracts for reconstruction work on the liberated territory have already gone past French companies. Moreover, Baku has revealed the spy network of French intelligence, and is also cleverly playing against Paris on such a platform as the Non-Aligned Movement.

Geopolitical dreams and reality

In theory, Paris could put up with all these "expenses" if the country really expected some benefits from the Armenian field.

Before the autumn of 2020, France might have hoped to make Armenia a useful "proxy" in the region, but not any more. France is not a player who can put on a show on the Armenian stage, or rather "ring", and knock out the rival. It is telling that Macron in his speech mentioned French overseas territories, the Balkans, but not Ukraine. There is a real war going on there and France cannot escape with vague promises or send obsolete weapons like the Bastion armoured personnel carriers, which President Ilham Aliyev called "tin cans". Macron's mention of France's "overseas territories" sounds like a joke on himself. In recent months, Paris's position in these "overseas territories" has been crumbling rapidly. A few years ago, France foolishly agreed to the Russian presence in Central Africa. And now its military and diplomatic staff are just staring in disbelief: Moscow is rudely pushing its former "overseas masters" out of the country. French troops are leaving Mali reluctantly. They have to quickly pull out their troops and their failed agents from Niger (and wonder where to get uranium for French nuclear power plants). Political chaos in Burkina Faso... And it's not just geopolitical issues and loss of control over resources. News like "at the request of the new government, French troops are leaving..." - is also a huge blow to their image. With the political crisis in Africa, it is clear that Paris does not have the resources or the political will to keep its influence even in those countries that it considered its "backyard" and "private garden" on the Seine.

Armenia is not Burkina Faso. Here Russia has a military base in Gyumri with "branches" in Garakilse, at Yerevan's Erebuni airport and so on. Armenia's borders with Iran and Türkiye are guarded by Russian green caps, Moscow controls a key stake in the Armenian economy... And it is not surprising, as experts have already pointed out, that both Macron and Sejournet are cautious about making any specific promises to Armenia.

Meanwhile, in Armenia, despite all the outward signs of the "honeymoon" with the West, and especially France, frustration is growing. Yerevan already knows that it will not get from Paris even a fraction of the support it had from Moscow. But "lessons" from the Kremlin might come. Especially now, when the Kremlin and Smolensk Square openly show their displeasure with Armenia's flirting with France and other countries hostile to Russia.

What independent and self-reliant Azerbaijan can do hardly applies to Armenia, which is a member of the CSTO and the EAEU, receives many benefits from Russia and has alliance commitments.

At the end of 2023, Moscow hoped that Nikol Pashinyan, after skipping several CSTO meetings, would still attend the informal CIS summit in St Petersburg. And the head of the Armenian government dutifully came to Moscow. He also took part in the EAEU summit, where Armenia took over the chairmanship.

And in the first weeks of the new year, the leaders of Pashinyan's Civil Contract faction in the Armenian parliament confirmed that the country had received a shipment of weapons from Russia. Some time later, it was announced that Radio Sputnik had restarted its operations in Armenia.

The main complaint of Yerevan against Moscow was not only (and not so much) that Russia "let Azerbaijan win". Armenia was upset that Russia did not deliver its outpost the promised and, they claimed, even paid for weapons. However, "paid for" in the mouths of Yerevan's representatives needs clarification. Usually, Armenia gets weapons either as a gift, or everything is done according to the scheme "Russia gives Armenia a loan - Armenia buys Russian weapons with it - Russia writes off the loan". In 2021, Russia was already gearing up for war with Ukraine. Besides, Moscow knew very well that Azerbaijan, Turkey, Georgia and Iran would not attack Armenia. But Armenia wanted revenge and was sure that Russia had to "supply" its dreams. And when they did not get the weapons they wanted, they were very angry.

And now members of Pashinyan's party are announcing: a batch of weapons has arrived, and another is on the way. The Russian-Armenian relations are still tense. Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan makes anti-Moscow remarks, and the Russian Foreign Ministry replies sharply. But the overall trend is clear: Armenia is returning to a pro-Russian path. This is also because it has no other option. Its reliance on the Kremlin is too strong for Yerevan to make any real geopolitical shifts.

Is Paris watching these political moves of Yerevan? Where the situation with political analysis and forecasting is already hard.