ORIENTATION RESHUFFLE

Georgia has a new government now. What does it mean for its domestic and foreign policy?

Challenges and opportunities

Georgia has a new government, but not because of an election. It was the result of a surprising reshuffle within the ruling party, Georgian Dream - Democratic Georgia. The former Prime Minister, Irakli Garibashvili, became the party's chairman, while Irakli Kobakhidze, who had led the party since 2021, took over as the new Prime Minister.

Kobakhidze's nomination was endorsed by the party's Political Council, and announced at its congress by Bidzina Ivanishvili, the billionaire founder and honorary chairman of Georgian Dream.

On February 8, the Georgian parliament voted to approve Kobakhidze and his cabinet, which had only one change from the previous one - Irakli Chikovani, the former deputy speaker of parliament, replaced Juansher Burchuladze as the defence minister. On the same day, Georgian President Salome Zurabishvili signed an order to appoint Kobakhidze as the new prime minister.

The reasons behind the change of the Prime Minister and the government remain unclear. Neither the officials nor the political experts have given any convincing explanations. The only thing that is known is that Ivanishvili, who is widely seen as the real power behind the scenes in Georgia, commented on Garibashvili's resignation by saying: "He wanted it himself, it was not me!". Garibashvili, for his part, stressed: "There is nothing new to say, because nothing has changed. Our team has established practices and there is internal democracy. I have been the Prime Minister of Georgian Dream for the longest time, 5 years out of 11 years (of being in power. - R+). It is necessary to give a chance to other successful leaders of the team to show their potential."

The one who was "given a chance to show his potential", Irakli Kobakhidze, in his speech at the party congress, expressed his gratitude to the honorary chairman of Georgian Dream and said: "Bidzina Ivanishvili is an example for each of us of how to serve our country."

The new government's goals and objectives are outlined in the programme titled "For the sake of building a European state" that Irakli Kobakhidze presented to the parliament members.

As for the economy, the government's priority is to make Georgia "a key economic hub at the global and regional level". This would "enable to increase employment and improve the living standards of the citizens". Kobakhidze's government plans to develop tourism, support agriculture, local investment and entrepreneurship, science, technology and innovation, and strengthen the social protection system. At the same time, based on the country's status as a candidate country for EU membership, the task is to prepare Georgia's economy for EU integration.

The foreign policy priorities include joining the EU and Euro-Atlantic structures, cooperating with NATO, building strategic partnerships with the USA and China, and collaborating with the regional countries.

According to the new cabinet's programme, "not only the government's priority, but also the most important national task" is "the peaceful resolution of the Russian-Georgian conflict and the peaceful restoration of Georgia's territorial integrity". This involves "the withdrawal of Russian troops from the occupied territories, ensuring the establishment of international security mechanisms in the occupied territories and increasing international involvement in this process".

Meanwhile, the foreign policy issues remain a matter of serious discrepancies within the Georgian government. It was also evident in the annual report of the Georgian President Salome Zurabishvili presented at the parliament on February 6—two days before the approval of the new cabinet. This came as a result of a surprising reshuffle within the ruling party, Georgian Dream - Democratic Georgia.

Zurabishvili VS everyone else

Zurabishvili, who will end her term as president in autumn 2024, delivered her last annual report as a sharp critique of Bidzina Ivanishvili, the billionaire founder and honorary chairman of Georgian Dream. She said that "today the main addressee of public questions is not the Prime Minister, the Speaker of Parliament or the ruling party, but the one who actually runs the country". She claimed that "elite corruption has reached new dimensions" and "the necessary balance between the branches of power, which is the cornerstone of democracy, has been severely disrupted". Referring to the ruling party's attempt to impeach the president, which showed the "unacceptability" for the country's authorities of the "independence of the presidential institution", Zurabishvili concluded her speech as a "challenge" to Georgia's European orientation.

The president accused the ruling party of spreading anti-Western propaganda and forging close ties with Russia. "Further deterioration of relations with Ukraine, public distancing from the EU and the US due to international sanctions at the most critical moment have cast doubt on the strength of our foreign orientation," Zurabishvili said.

She also addressed the then prime ministerial candidate Irakli Kobakhidze, who had replaced Irakli Garibashvili as the new Prime Minister, and rebuked him for his "anti-European rhetoric". "How do you plan to introduce the European order in society?" - she asked.

Zurabishvili's speech exposed the depth of the conflict between the Ivanishvili-backed government and the president. After his confirmation as prime minister, Kobakhidze warned that he, like his predecessor Garibashvili, would not allow the president to make foreign visits and would find it hard to cooperate with Zurabishvili, who had "repeatedly violated the Georgian Constitution". He meant that she had previously made several foreign visits without the consent of the Prime Minister, while the Constitution allows the Georgian President to exercise representative functions in foreign policy only with the consent of the government.

The mutual attacks of Zurabishvili and Kobakhidze indicate that the rift between the president and the government will persist under the new prime minister. But it is not only based on internal reasons related to the conflicting interests of key actors in Georgian politics, but also on significant differences in views on Georgia's place and role in regional and global politics.

Geopolitical nuances ahead of the Georgian elections

The granting of EU candidate status to Georgia in December 2023 has opened a new chapter in the struggle for influence over the country between Russia and the West.

It is clear that the West wants to use Georgia as a key element in expanding its position in the South Caucasus. But the success of this process will depend on which trend will ultimately prevail in Tbilisi's policy - regionally oriented or pro-European? This also includes how this factor will affect the Azerbaijani-Armenian settlement, which is vital for the fate of peace and security in the South Caucasus. And here there is no doubt that Georgia is important for the EU, among other things, as a transit territory for military-technical supplies to Armenia and ensuring the withdrawal of the latter from the sphere of Russia's geopolitical influence. Will Georgia agree to play such a role, and if so, how will this impact its prospects as a key strategic partner of Azerbaijan and Türkiye?

Georgia's foreign policy has been showing some signs of divergence from its long-standing course of unconditional support for Azerbaijan in the international arena, which has been based on mutual recognition and cooperation since both countries regained their independence three decades ago. For instance, the Georgian delegation did not speak in favour of Azerbaijan at the PACE and abstained from voting on the issue of stripping the Azerbaijani delegation of its credentials. President Zurabishvili also acted oddly, congratulating the leader of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev only five days after his win in the snap presidential election.

Zurabishvili's stance has drawn fierce criticism from the Georgian government. While waiting for Zurabishvili's congratulatory message to Aliyev, Deputy Prime Minister, Minister of Culture and Sports Teia Tsulukiani said that the Georgian president's silence "damages our state", and that "Zurabishvili's goal should be to preserve and develop partnership relations with Azerbaijan, but she is doing the opposite".

Discontent with Zurabishvili's "inaction" was also expressed by Deputy Prime Minister, Defence Minister Irakli Chikovani, who said that "it is clear to everyone that we have a strategic partnership and cooperation with the Republic of Azerbaijan. We have special relations with the leader of Azerbaijan, which have repeatedly contributed to the implementation of successful projects between our countries. On the other hand, simple diplomatic etiquette requires that such a congratulatory message be sent even earlier".

Such evaluations by the members of the new Georgian cabinet suggest that Kobakhidze and his team recognise the weight and importance of Azerbaijan for the interests of Georgia and the whole region. However, being constrained by Georgia's status as a candidate country for EU accession, and thus by the relevant expectations of Brussels, they are likely to try to navigate around the conflicting interests of Tbilisi itself. This aspect will be most evident in Georgia's relations with the EU and the Russian Federation: while pursuing the course towards European integration, Kobakhidze's government will also seek to avoid confrontation with Moscow. Such ambivalence has already been seen, for example, in the fact that Tbilisi, on the one hand, declined to participate in the regional format "3+3", citing its conflict with Russia, and on the other hand, did not join the anti-Russian sanctions of the West.

The case of the seizure by the Georgian State Security Service at the border with Russia of a cargo of explosive devices (weighing a total of 14 kg), which, according to the agency's statement, was being transported from Odessa to Voronezh, is also telling. According to a 5 February report by the Georgian security services, seven Georgian citizens, three from Ukraine and two from Armenia were involved in the smuggling of the explosives. In response to an appeal by the Ukrainian Embassy in Georgia to "not politicise" the issue, Irakli Kobakhidze, then a candidate for prime minister, said that "politicisation has nothing to do with it". "When someone outside the country tries to make Georgia the target of Russian aggression inside the country, it is very serious and causes great concern. This once again confirms what, in principle, officials of the Ukrainian government have been openly saying, that they wanted and probably still want a second front in our country," Kobakhidze said.

The actions of the Georgian security services were praised by Russia's political circles. Alexei Chepa, the First Deputy Chairman of the Russian State Duma Committee on International Affairs, even said that Moscow "should thank Georgia for intercepting the Ukrainian explosives". There were also hints from Russia about a possible thaw in relations between Moscow and Tbilisi.

However, the true direction of Georgia's foreign policy in the next years will only become clear after the parliamentary and presidential elections this year. The new Georgian prime minister, Kobakhidze, has stated that the government programme he has presented is only valid until the parliamentary elections in October. Therefore, the recent remarks by key Georgian officials, including President Salome Zurabishvili, who is likely aiming to be the leader of the staunchly pro-Western forces, can be seen as a form of campaigning for the upcoming vote.