TANDEM TO EUROPE

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's visit to Iraq is scheduled for April, with extensive preparations underway, considering that the last visit by a Turkish head of state to Iraq occurred twelve years ago.

In mid-March, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan, Defense Minister Yasar Güler, and National Intelligence Organisation head Ibrahim Kalin visited Baghdad to participate in the Second Security Conference. The event was attended by high-ranking government officials from both countries.

As per the Turkish Foreign Ministry, agreements have been reached to establish permanent joint committees on counter-terrorism, trade, agriculture, energy, water resources development, health, and transport. Discussions between Ankara and Baghdad also covered topics concerning the camps of the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) in Iraq and border security issues. These agreements and meetings are primarily aimed at preparing for the Turkish president's visit.

Minister Güler mentioned after the conference that it was the first time in forty years that the Iraqi government officially recognized the PKK as a terrorist organization. An agreement was also made to set up a joint operations centre between Türkiye and Iraq. Additionally, talks included the Development Path project, crucial for connecting the Persian Gulf with Türkiye—an initiative of high significance for Türkiye.

From Resentment to Friendship

The forthcoming visit of the Turkish head of state to Iraq after a prolonged hiatus can be attributed to the less than satisfactory state of Iraqi-Turkish relations. The swift progress of these relations in the early 2000s stalled due to conflicts arising after the Arab Spring. Furthermore, tensions heightened with Türkiye's military involvement in Iraq against ISIS and continuous airstrikes on PKK camps in Iraq over the past five years.

However, current indications suggest both sides are striving to move past historical grievances and foster reconciliation to address present challenges. The Iraqi government's designation of the PKK as a terrorist group and positive gestures from Iraq ahead of President Erdogan's visit underscore the mutual commitment to peace and enhancing neighbourly ties.

In March, President Erdogan announced plans for establishing a "security zone" within Iraqi territory, a proposal that has not been opposed by Iraqi authorities. Recent developments indicate Baghdad's acknowledgment of the importance of border security with Türkiye, particularly in light of the Development Path project.

New Alternative Corridor

The Development Path project aims to create a new transport corridor spanning 1,200 kilometres, linking Basra in Iraq to Türkiye via rail and road networks. Starting from the port of Fao in Basra, slated for completion by 2025, the route will traverse major Iraqi cities before entering Türkiye near the Iraqi-Syrian border. Subsequently, it will extend to Europe through the Turkish port of Mersin on the Mediterranean coast. Projected to cost approximately $20 billion, this initiative is expected to conclude by 2029.

Moreover, the Development Path offers an advantageous connection between Türkiye and Gulf countries. According to an Iraqi government spokesperson, goods transported from Türkiye via this corridor will reach Gulf nations within ten hours, serving as the most direct route for Gulf oil exports to the European market.

Farhan al-Fatousi, director of the Iraqi Port Company, highlighted to Reuters that apart from enhancing cargo and passenger traffic, the Development Path will stimulate regional development.

Together with Türkiye, the project established in 2010 involved Syria as a partner. Originally, the plan aimed to utilise Syria's railway system to create the most efficient route connecting Syria to Gulf countries via the Development Route. However, due to the onset of wars in Syria and Iraq in 2011, these plans were not realised. With the conclusion of these conflicts, the project's significance has resurfaced. Notably, besides Türkiye, Persian Gulf nations have also shown interest in the project owing to its direct access to Europe.

Development Path: A Third Alternative?

Abdulkadir Uraloglu, Turkish Minister of Transport and Infrastructure, highlighted a new perspective on the project—a potential third alternative. He emphasized the heightened importance of the Development Route project following the events of October 7, 2023, which triggered conflict in the Gaza Strip, halted Suez Canal navigation, and redirected shipping through the Cape of Good Hope.

Minister Uraloglu mentioned that once operational, this route could transport cargo from Beijing to London in just 26 days. Comparatively, maritime transport covering this vast distance typically takes 35 days including passage through the Suez Canal. By circumnavigating Africa via the Cape of Good Hope, the duration extends to 45 days. The Basra-Mersin route could emerge as a viable alternative to the Suez route, offering a more efficient option.

At the G20 summit in India on September 9-10, 2023, a new transport corridor project was proposed. The India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC) project was endorsed in a joint statement signed by various countries. IMEC aimed to transport goods from India to Europe via Dubai, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and Israel, bypassing the Suez Canal. Despite political implications and aspirations for regional reconciliation, IMEC faced stagnation following events in Gaza, prompting consideration of the Development Route as a substitute.

The Development Route is positioned as a counterbalance to IMEC and offers an advantageous route for exporting Chinese goods to Europe via Pakistan and the Indian Ocean. Erdogan's visit to Iraq is anticipated to revolve around discussions regarding the Development Route as a pivotal transportation corridor for Türkiye, Iraq, and Gulf countries. This initiative holds promise for creating new economic prospects for Iraq in the long term and expanding Türkiye's transport network significantly.

Considering recent events that have exposed vulnerabilities in transport routes due to security threats, both countries are prioritizing security along the Iraqi-Turkish border. Recognizing potential risks posed by illegal armed groups and terrorist organizations like the PKK along the border strip, efforts are underway to address these security concerns. The establishment of a joint operational centre between Baghdad and Ankara signifies shared commitment towards securing their northern borders.

President Erdogan's readiness to establish a "security zone," Baghdad's recent recognition of the PKK as a terrorist organization after four decades, and collaborative measures to counter PKK activities underscore the importance both nations place on border security. Erdogan's upcoming visit to Iraq will likely focus on discussions surrounding the Development Route and its security implications, marking a crucial phase in the project's future development within the region.