SHARI'AH DID NOT HELP

Egypt's interim president Adly Mansour has issued a decree on the adoption of a new constitutional declaration. The document envisages the convocation of a constitutional assembly which will prepare a new constitution within two weeks and the holding of the presidential election six months after the declaration is published, RIA Novosti has reported.

The current political crisis in Egypt shows no signs of abating. However, experts do not rule out the possibility that the current tension may grow into a civil war. Egyptian writer and blogger Mohamed Saleh says that the army is now controlling the situation and the Muslim Brotherhood, supporting the toppled president, Mohamed Morsi, do not dare to engage in confrontation. In a telephone interview with our magazine, Saleh shared his vision of the current developments in Egypt.

- On the whole, the current situation can be described as a rebellion against the policy of President Mohamed Morsi. Millions of people poured out into the streets of Egyptian cities to voice their protest against his rule. The point is that Morsi's policy had been aimed at the establishment of an Islamic form of governance in Egypt. Morsi, alongside his team from the Muslim Brotherhood, compiled and legalized a new constitution of the country in literally two days. This constitution cancelled all public norms on the basis of which Egyptians had lived. The Muslim Brotherhood have a great experience in gaining votes from illiterate rural population. Therefore, whenever they hear any criticism from their opponents, they refer to the elections and propose to hold another one. For Morsi, interests of the Muslim Brotherhood were above the interests of the state and his foreign policy well reflected this. Against the backdrop of a grave economic crisis in Egypt, as the country's currency reserve was reduced by 10 billion dollars within one year of their governance, Morsi opted to move towards the escalation of tension with Syria. The Syrian ambassador was deported from Egypt and the embassy was closed. At the same time, appeals came from government agencies, calling for jihad against the Syrian government. They did not even exclude the possibility of the Egyptian army's participation in Syria's domestic conflict. Moreover, in a live TV address Morsi threatened Ethiopia with a war over the latter's plans to build a dam in the Nile. An absurd political course and the government's incompetence caused a powerful wave of protests in the country. The army allowed time for the country's leadership to sort out the situation and threatened to compile a roadmap of a solution from the crisis without Morsi's participation.

At the moment, the Muslim Brotherhood are threatening with a civil war and in some instances, even resort to terrorist acts. Morsi's supporters gathered in Cairo. They attempted several times to break into the palace in which Morsi is kept. During these attempts, there were clashes with the police. Incidentally, the forensic examination of the killed persons showed that they had been shot from a closed distance in their back by seven-millimeter bullets which are not used by the Egyptian army. The Muslim Brotherhood employ their favourite tactics as they suddenly emerge from the ambush, hide behind ordinary people and start shooting at military facilities. When the army responds, peaceful civilians come under the shooting.

- There were reports in the media that Morsi managed to accumulate a 120 billion dollar credit in a year. Is this true?

- Morsi accumulated a lot of debt but not as much as that. During the election campaign he promised that during his rule he would accumulate 200 billion dollar credits. This caused a lot of criticism towards him. Many people met these plans with suspicion. During the year he loaned 2 billion dollars from Libya, another 2 - from Turkey, 3 from Qatar and the same amount from Saudi Arabia. At the same time, the living standards sharply fell, as did the socio-economic situation in the country.

- What kind of theocratic state did the Muslim Brotherhood eventually want to create in Egypt - an Iranian type or something else? There were occasional reports in the press about Morsi's attempts to push Medieval customs through at the Egyptian parliament…

- They did not aim so much towards Iran, as towards Afghanistan during the Taliban rule. For example, the government supported removal in the law of any mention of a marital age for girls. It was also proposed to stop criminal prosecution for female circumcision. While those in Afghanistan blew up a Buddha monument, there were fears that the Sphinx, which bears a human image, may have come under an attack from Salafites and Al-Gama'a al-Islamiyya in Egypt.

- Is there a risk that a civil war may break out in Egypt?

  - On the whole, as regards the further development of events, anything can happen. However, I do not think things will go as far as a civil war.

Recent statements from Washington testify to the fact that they no longer support Morsi. The USA has already closed the topic. Morsi is only supported by the Muslim Brotherhood now. They are sufficiently organized and they have their own paramilitary police. This organization has about 1.5-2 million supporters in Cairo. They could organize unrest but I doubt this will grow into a civil war. Currently, the country is temporarily led by the head of the Constitutional Court and preparations are under way to adopt a new constitution. If within the next six months we manage to hold a parliamentary election, all passions will soon subside. However, we cannot rule out terrorist acts in various regions. The Muslim Brotherhood is not strong enough to start a civil war with the Egyptian army which is 14th strongest army globally and second after Israel in the Middle East. The situation in Egyptian regions is calm. The point is that all of Morsi's supporters have gathered in Cairo.

- How do the neighbouring countries react to the developments in Egypt?

- From Israel's viewpoint, Morsi was a very good president. He could come to terms with Hamas. Over the past 8 months, not a single missile was fired on Israel's territory and there had not been a single attempt during the year to blow up a pipeline that provides Israel with gas. The USA and Israel believed that the Muslim Brotherhood government met their demands in terms of the provision of security in Israel and the Suez Canal. Now these countries are carefully watching the developments in Egypt. Recent period has seen rapprochement between Egypt, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. Close ties with Qatar had a negative impact on Egypt as this threatened to involve the country into the Syrian civil war. It was through Egypt's blessing that money started to flow to Syrian rebels from the Persian Gulf region.

- Is there a politician in Egypt who has the greatest chances of winning in the forthcoming presidential election? Could it be Mohamed ElBaradei, for instance?

- Currently, there is no clear leader. ElBaradei has minimal chances. Currently, he acts as the deputy prime minister and his mission is to help the country emerge from the crisis. New candidates will emerge on the political scene in the near future, possibly those who are supported by the army. There will be candidates from Islamic organizations as well who continue to pursue active political life, such as An-Nur and others.

- Could a coalition government be a solution to the crisis, or would this cause even greater tension?

- A coalition government cannot guarantee professionalism of government members. Currently, people in Egypt think a government of technocrats will be a way out. First of all, it is necessary to drag the country out of the difficult economic crisis and to rectify the socio-economic situation.