ALL FORECASTS COME TRUE

The voting to elect a president has taken place in Azerbaijan. A total of 5,145,643 citizens were included in the electoral lists of the Central Electoral Commission [CEC]. Voters were able to declare their intention at 5,273 permanent and 219 temporary polling stations. Over 50,000 local and about 1,400 foreign observers monitored the progress of the elections. 

Ten candidates were registered by the CEC to take part in the presidential elections. They included the chairman of the Yeni Azerbaijan Party [New Azerbaijan Party], the incumbent head of state, Ilham Aliyev; the chairman of the Umid Party, MP Iqbal Agazada; the chairman of the United People's Front of Azerbaijan Party, MP Qudrat Hasanquliyev; the chairman of the Modern Musavat Party, Hafiz Haciyev; the chairman of the Social Democrat Party of Azerbaijan, Araz Alizada; the chairman of the National Revival Movement Party, MP Farac Quliyev; the chairman of the Adalat Party, MP Ilyas Ismayilov; chairman of the Democratic Party of Azerbaijan (DPA), Sardar Calaloglu; the Independent candidate, MP Zahid Oruc, and, finally, Professor of History Camil Hasanli, nominated by a group of voters of the "National Council of Democratic Forces".

As can be seen, the candidates covered a broad political spectrum. They included nine leaders of political parties, including seven MPs.

In order to stage large-scale events and meetings with the electorate about 1,500 special venues were allocated all over the republic and debates were organized on public television. In any case, with the efforts of certain participants the debates turned into a disreputable spectacle, with an exchange of ill-founded accusations and even insults and bottle throwing. The debates were able to attract the attention of a wide audience but aroused little desire to trust those responsible for the ruckus with the destiny of the state and the country.  

The voting process itself passed off quietly, was well organized and the technical assistance provided was of a high standard. This was noted by almost all the foreign observers. Voting activity at presidential elections in Azerbaijan is usually higher than at parliamentary and municipal elections. This is because Azerbaijan is a presidential republic and it is this branch of government, and the person who leads it, that determines the prospects of the country's development for the next five years. A high degree of voting activity was also evident on this occasion.

According to the CEC's Information Centre, 72.31%, or 3,720,643 voters took part in the ballot at the elections. The Central Electoral Commission officially declared the preliminary results for all 5,492 polling stations. According to them, Ilham Aliyev won a convincing victory having polled 84.55% of the vote. His main opponent, Camil Hasanli, received almost 15 times fewer votes - 5.53%. Further down the line were Iqbal Agazada, Qudrat Hasanquliyev, Zahid Oruc and Ilyas Ismayilov - they received over 1% of the vote. The other candidates received even less.

Virtually all the candidates, with the exception of Camil Hasanli, accepted defeat and congratulated the incumbent president, Ilham Aliyev, on his victory. The leaders of Turkey, Iran, Russia, Ukraine, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Georgia, Israel, Lithuania and a number of other countries also offered their congratulations to Ilham Aliyev. Messages of congratulation continue to arrive.

The influential foreign media on the whole commented positively on the presidential elections and Ilham Aliyev's victory. For example, the EuroNews TV channel focused attention on the calm and peaceful election campaign and the fact that Ilham Aliyev's victory was expected and was fully in line with public opinion polls held the day before by local and foreign sociological services. The CNN TV channel said that no-one should be surprised by the results of the elections in Azerbaijan because it is not that easy to build a modern, secular and democratic state out of the ruins of 70 years of Soviet rule, and the president's popularity is linked precisely with this. For its part, the American Washington Post, in an article based on the preliminary results of the voting at the presidential elections in Azerbaijan, pointed out that Ilham Aliyev had won a crushing victory. The Bloomberg business news agency, reporting President Ilham Aliyev's victory, noted the part he played in the fact that "in the last decade the country's economy has more than trebled with the growth in oil and gas extraction. This has led to a sixfold increase in average wages in Azerbaijan to over 500 dollars a month".

The majority of international observers, in particular from PACE and the European Parliament, the CIS, GUAM, TurkPA and the Islamic Cooperation Organization, said that the elections in Azerbaijan took place in free and democratic conditions. For example, the heads of the delegations of PACE and the European Parliament, Robert Walter and Pino Arlacchi, said they were satisfied with the technical preparation of the Azerbaijani government for the elections. "On polling day no pressure was put on the electorate. As prescribed by electoral law, there were no police at the polling stations," a statement issued by them says. According to the observers, despite this certain improvements could be proposed in this sphere. "Compared with the last elections the debates were freer. Certain opportunities were created for the opposition. This trend must be continued in the future and the current elections are the start of this. We urge the Azerbaijani government to seriously develop the country on the path to democracy," Walter and Arlacchi noted.

Their counterparts from other international organizations, together with a generally positive assessment, drew attention to slight flaws which do not cast doubt on the overall results of the ballot. Only a report of the observers' mission of the Bureau for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights (BDIHR) of the OSCE was at variance with similar reports of other international observers. The most critical was a report of its long-term mission, whereas the short-term mission, which carried out monitoring the day before and on the day of the ballot, found no major violations. According to the special coordinator of the incumbent chairman of the OSCE for monitoring the elections in Azerbaijan, Michel Voisin, despite the good organization of the electoral process and the peaceful atmosphere on polling day, the observers "were compelled to underline flaws in such areas as vote counting". However, under a hail of questions from journalists he was forced to admit that the discrepancies between their counting and the results of an exit-poll, as well as the preliminary results of the voting, were not more than 4%, i.e. they could not alter the overall picture of the election results and the eventual winner. Doris Barnett, the head of the OSCE's parliamentary mission, also said that she had personally observed the electoral process at the polling stations and did not encounter any violations.

Significantly, OSCE Secretary General Lamberto Zannier officially congratulated Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev on his election victory, indirectly noting that he did not share the tendentious assessments of the mission of observers of his organization. Ukrainian Foreign Minister Leonid Kozhara, the chairman-in-office of the OSCE, agreed, noting that the elections in Azerbaijan were a significant step towards democracy. Only a representative of the US State Department aligned himself with the critical report of the BDIHR of the OSCE, whereas representatives of the American Congress, who monitored the elections directly in Azerbaijan, gave a positive assessment of them and found no violations.

One forms the impression that the negative and critical comments are based not on facts observed at close hand, but are fed from sources close to the opposition. The candidate from the National Council of Democratic Forces, Camil Hasanli, spoke at a press conference about the total falsification of the election results and said he did not recognize them. He made an absurd and completely unfounded statement that only 20% (?) of the listed number of voters took part in the ballot, and that the country does not have 2 million (!?) voters, whereas all international observers drew attention to the high turnout. Incidentally, Camil Hasanli accused the observers from the European Parliament and PACE who gave a positive assessment of the elections of corruption.

To back up their case, Hasanli's HQ presented to the CEC over 900 instances of alleged violations, but the authenticity of these documents could only be judged after they had been officially examined. Looking back at previous parliamentary elections, Camil Hasanli vociferously spoke then about mass falsifications and numerous cases of alleged violations, but they did not stand up to scrutiny. The results of the constituency in which Hasanli stood were not contested at a single polling station and he himself was unable to justify his complaints either in the local courts or in the Strasbourg court which he promised to take them to. I believe that his current application will end in the same way: the maximum noise and verbal accusations and the minimum of proof.

It would do Camil Hasanli no harm to be a bit self-critical and the opposition to take a sober look at the reasons for their constant failure. The National Council of Democratic Opposition spent several months on choosing a single candidate and reached agreement on this question only a month before the ballot. The opposition organized a weak election campaign. Compared with the election campaigns in 1998 of the leader of AMIP, Etibar Mammadov, or in 2003 of the leader of the Musavat party, Isa Qambar, Camil Hasanli's election campaign was much less effective. In the end he had a worse result than the aforementioned opposition candidates.

Even in his own village of Alar Camil Hasanli lost to Ilham Aliyev, polling four times fewer votes. His ranting about merry-go-round voting in the village, where everyone knows one another, and where Hasanli should have a lot of relatives, neighbours and old school mates, does not look too convincing. If a candidate can't get votes in his own village, how can he lay claim to running the country? It is impossible to achieve victory at an election on the basis of one loud criticism of the incumbent authorities. In order to be elected you have to present society with an alternative programme of action and challenge confidence in the government's team. Camil Hasanli did not even mention any of this. So while there was a battle at the presidential elections the opposition and its candidate were no real alternative for the population. Nevertheless, the problems that were raised during the course of the debates, especially those that were well-considered and caused a reaction in society, will not go unheeded.

In his address immediately after the preliminary results of the elections were declared, Ilham Aliyev, after thanking the people for their confidence and his election for a third term as president of the Azerbaijani Republic, assured them that he would continue the policy of reforms, the further modernization of the country and the struggle against negative developments. "I would like to assure you once again that I will work with all my strength for the well-being of our people and the strengthening of our state. Together we shall achieve more great victories," he said.

Changes in the country are, of course, needed. However, these changes must lead to an improvement in the lives of the people. The experience of revolutionary leaps and bounds that were observed during the so-called "Arab Spring", and in post-Soviet countries like Ukraine, Kyrgyzstan and Georgia, has shown that changes which are accompanied by a destabilization of the situation lead to a break in continuity, and instead of moving forward cause countries to take a step backwards. Azerbaijan, by electing Ilham Aliyev as president for a third term, has voted for stability and steady development.