THAW IN GENEVA

Iran and the "P5+1" international mediators (five permanent members of the UN Security Council plus Germany) have had talks in Geneva to discuss the further development of Tehran's nuclear programme, but the meeting wrapped up without any serious breakthrough being made. However, unlike previous rounds of talks, for the first time the sides did state that there was a realistic possibility of resolving this issue by diplomatic means. This is probably the most important outcome of the Geneva meeting.

The fact that Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif headed the Iranian delegation is noteworthy and initially indicated that the talks might be relatively successful. The Supreme National Security Council of the Islamic Republic of Iran had previously been in charge of talks on Tehran's nuclear programme; its uncompromising stance was one of the reasons for the failure of the diplomatic process (at any rate, from a Western point of view).

The Iranian side put forward its plan for resolving the nuclear programme issue right from the very start of the Geneva meeting. The document's content has not been made public. The Iranian foreign minister let it be understood that, given the extremely serious nature of the issue, the plan proposed by Tehran should remain classified until such time as the sides reach an agreement.

Nevertheless, reliable world media sources have leaked the fact that Iran has proposed to the "P5+1" that co-operation in the nuclear field should be developed in conditions of transparency and under the control of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). The plan includes demands that the "P5+1" should recognise Tehran's right to enrich uranium and use various nuclear facilities, including research reactors, and also that the UN Security Council sanctions imposed on the Islamic Republic of Iran should be lifted. For its part, Iran guarantees that it will only use nuclear energy for peaceful purposes.

As regards the details, Tehran has agreed to cut down the number of its centrifuges and suspend the uranium enrichment to the 20-per-cent level for the time being. This is precisely what holds the promise of an agreement being reached between Iran and the West, which believes that, if Tehran produces a specific amount of uranium, it cannot be ruled out that the Islamic republic will develop a nuclear weapon. At the same time, there are grounds for being cautiously optimistic in that the USA is not opposed, as it was earlier, to the 5-per-cent enrichment of uranium needed for Iran's peaceful nuclear programmes.

The Iranian plan also indicates the Islamic Republic's willingness to allow unannounced inspections of its nuclear facilities in response to the lifting of international economic sanctions. The latter is fundamentally important to Iran. The Iranian deputy foreign minister [Under Secretary for International and Legal Affairs of Iran's Foreign Ministry] Abbas Araqchi has stated that the ultimate accord should envisage lifting of all the sanctions imposed on Tehran and granting it the right to enrich uranium. The West, in its turn, would permit such a scenario if Tehran were to guarantee that its nuclear programme was solely for peaceful purposes. This has given the Iranian side grounds for speaking about a "new phase in relations" between the Islamic Republic and the West.

It is most noteworthy that the United States has assessed the talks in Geneva positively. White House Press Secretary Jay Carney has said that Tehran's new proposal is more serious and substantive than the previous one. 

The meeting in Geneva between Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs Wendy Sherman and Abbas Araqchi is further evidence of Washington's attempt to get a direct dialogue going with Tehran.This was the first meeting on this level between representatives of the USA and Iran since President Barack Obama and President Hassan Rouhani discussed a peaceful solution of differences on the telephone last month. 

Bilateral talks have taken place between Iran and Great Britain. Experts have described the discussions between London and Tehran in Geneva as the most productive contacts between the Iranians and Western countries. It has been reported that Great Britain and Iran are to appoint charges d'affaires within two weeks in order to restore diplomatic ties.

   Even Russia expressed cautious optimism regarding the talks between Iran and the "P5+1", when backing Iran's right to develop a nuclear programme monitored by the international community. Another important element in Russia's stand is its objection to unilateral sanctions against Iran and its declaration that these were illegal. It was obviously a plus for the Geneva meeting that Deputy Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov was more satisfied with the outcome of this last round of talks than with that achieved at the previous meeting of the "P5+1" representatives in Almaty [Kazak-hstan].

Naturally, the outcome of the Geneva meeting does not allow us to be completely confident that the conflict between Iran and the West will be settled peacefully. All in all, for the moment the diplomatic process boils down the expression of intentions. The contradictory nature of the positions of the sides remains sufficiently profound. What is more, international circles still suspect that Tehran is harbouring military intentions with its nuclear programme, so certain forces are continuing to develop plans for a strike on Iran. 

 Israel's view that Tehran is misleading everyone is indicative of this. The Israeli government has called upon the world community not to agree to any compromise with Iran and to insist on a complete rejection of its independent uranium enrichment, before easing the pressure of sanctions. Israel has referred to the very holding of the Geneva talks as a direct outcome of the hard-line sanctions imposed on Iran. Therefore Tel-Aviv is calling for there to be no let-up in the pressure until the "the desired result is being achieved".

The argument presented by Israel is to a certain extent well founded. Iran needs the sanctions to be lifted because they are having a detrimental effect on the Islamic Republic's economy. This is largely the reason why President Hassan Rouhani was elected, as he is in the main more open to dialogue with the international community than his predecessor, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. And these talks in Geneva, which have taken place since Rouhani was elected do for the first time in recent years promise realistic prospects of reducing the tension between Iran and the West. 

The mood in the West, first and foremost in the United States, is hinting at a more peaceable attitude. The USA has evidently decided to let itself have a breathing space after the exhausting military campaigns in Iraq and Afghanistan, its military efforts in support of the "revolution" in Libya, and also taking into account the never ending bloodshed in Syria. 

One thing that is clear is that the USA and other international negotiators have started to discuss with the Iranian Republic the mechanisms and technical details needed if the issue of its nuclear programme is to be resolved. At the present time, this is really quite significant. It was only yesterday that the world community's experts were more or less forecasting the date for a military strike on Iran by the West. It is quite another matter that there will not be any instant break-throughs in the talks. Progress is likely to be achieved in stages. The next round of talks planned between Iran and the "P5+1" in Geneva on 7-8 November promises to be another step forward in that direction.