THE "DREAM" GAINS THE UPPER HAND

On 28 October, presidential elections were held in Georgia. The author of this article took a direct part in their monitoring at the invitation of the Georgian parliament. Voting day, like the preceding election campaign, was surprisingly calm and even humdrum. The author's personal impressions after visiting polling stations, conversations with other observers and familiarization with local media comments allowed him to come to the conclusion that the elections were free and fair. That's how they were evaluated by all delegations of international observers without exception.

After processing more than 99 % of protocols from polling stations, the Election Committee announced the preliminary results, according to which the candidate of the ruling Georgian Dream coalition, Giorgi Margvelashvili, won the presidential elections in Georgia. He gained more than 62 % of the vote. His main opponents - two former Speakers of Parliament David Bakradze and Nino Burjanadze - gained about 22 and 10 % of the votes respectively. The turnout was 46.9 % and was significantly lower than that in last year's parliamentary elections.

The gap in the results of the candidates was so large and compelling that David Bakradze, nominated by pro-Saakashvili United National Movement (UNM), congratulated Giorgi Margvelashvili on his victory immediately after the results of the exit polls conducted on behalf of several local television stations were made public. The outgoing President Mikhail Saakashvili also recognized the election results because "they, whether you like them or not, reflect the will of the people, and this is the main feature of democracy". Some dissatisfaction with the results of the elections was expressed only by the Labour Party leader Shalva Natelashvili and Nino Burjanadze. However, this did not spoil the overall positive perception of the election campaign in Georgia.

Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev was one of the first to congratulate Giorgi Margvelashvili on his election as president. A letter sent on the occasion expresses confidence in the further comprehensive development and strengthening of friendly and good-neighbourly relations, strategic partnership and multifaceted cooperation for the prosperity of our peoples and countries and peace, stability and progress in the region. The president of Azerbaijan wished Giorgi Margvelashvili strong health, happiness and success in government activities.

Even the leaders of Russia, whose joy at the departure of their arch-enemy President Saakashvili from the political scene and at the electoral defeat of the candidate he supported is combined with distrust and dislike for any unruly Georgian national authorities, found it possible to recognize the elections as free and honest through Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov. "We wish the people of Georgia to complete all arrangements to form a new government as soon as possible and we hope that the authorities will conduct a friendly and good-neighbourly policy towards Russia, given the current realities in this complex region," Sergey Lavrov said in this regard.

But in Moscow, there are other moods as well, and they are expressed in a language far from being diplomatic. Thus, the head of the section for Caucasus studies at RISS (Russian Institute for Strategic Studies under the Presidential Administration of the Russian Federation), Yana Amelina, said in her comments to REGNUM news agency: "In the current circumstances, the composition of the Georgian leadership is not crucial - it is still unable to cope with the challenges of the time. Georgia does not have and in the foreseeable future will not have not only pro-Russian, but even pro-Georgian politicians who understand the depth of internal and foreign policy risks faced by this state. The qualitative improvement of Russian-Georgian relations requires not absurd claims against Russia, but the repentance of the Georgian leadership (and, more importantly, society) for the events of 2008 (or rather for what has been happening at least since 1989). But Georgia is proud of its 'heroes'. The country obviously needs external control, and it is necessary to manage it with old methods - through a Russian governor-general from the Vorontsov Palace, which is on Rustaveli Avenue in Tbilisi." If you recall that during his long hours of communication with the media this summer, President Vladimir Putin suddenly started a discussion that at the time of the Russian Empire, Georgia did not exist as a state and there was the Tbilisi province, it becomes clear who such masters of political provocation as Yana Amelina and REGNUM news agency are trying to please with their chauvinistic comments.

Regardless of whether anyone likes or not the way developments are taking place in Georgia, the sovereign right to give power and authority belongs to the people of this country, who expressed their will in the elections quite clearly. The inauguration of the fourth president of Georgia after the restoration of state independence will be held on 17 November. In accordance with the amendments to the Constitution adopted three years ago, the powers of the head of state are significantly reduced and redistributed between the parliament and the government. The president is the commander-in-chief of the armed forces and along with representative functions, he acts as an arbiter in possible disputes between separate branches of government, as well as in cases of crisis, but he can no longer determine the composition of the government, direct its activity and demand accountability, that's to say to interfere in the operational management of the state.

The character, temperament and political experience of the new president of Georgia fully meet that status. The modesty and moderation of Giorgi Margvelashvili's ambitions manifested itself in the fact that he announced before the election that he will refuse the luxury residence, which was built by his predecessor in the Avlabari district. After the inauguration, he is going to take a room in the Government Office.

Readers will be interested in the biography of the fourth president of Georgia. Giorgi Margvelashvili was born on 4 September 1969 in Tbilisi. In 1992, he graduated from Ivane Javakhishvili Tbilisi State University in philosophy. In subsequent years, he majored in sociology at the Central European University in Budapest. After a short period of employment in tourism and marketing, in 1995-2000 he worked as a consultant for programmes at the Tbilisi office of the American NDI. In 1998 he received a PhD. In 2000-2012, Margvelashvili worked at the Georgian Institute of Public Affairs (GIPA), as head of the research department and as rector. In autumn 2012 he was appointed minister of education and science of Georgia in the Ivanishvili government and held this position until the summer of 2013 when he resigned to join the election campaign. He is not married but has a daughter.

In his public statements, Giorgi Margvelashvili emphasized that Georgia has made its foreign policy choice and will continue to move in the European and Euro-Atlantic direction. He stated that the Association Agreement with the European Union within the framework of the Eastern Partnership in November of this year in Vilnius will be initialled. As for relations with our country, in an interview with 1news.az on the eve of the elections, Giorgi Margvelashvili reaffirmed his commitment to traditionally close and friendly relations and said: "Together with our strategic partner Azerbaijan, we can do a lot for the development of our countries, using the existing potential. We will certainly endeavour to do so. We will continue to work with our strategic partners. For Georgia, as well as for Azerbaijan and Turkey it is important to move in this direction. Projects launched together with Azerbaijan and Turkey will be developed. This remains the strategic focus of our policy. We are on a difficult path. Competent actions will bring us good results."

Experts predict that Georgia is entering a quiet phase of existence without frequent upheavals that accompanied its twenty-year history of independence. But these expectations may not be vindicated. The very next day after Margvelashvili's victory, a Tbilisi court passed a sentence on ex-Defence Minister Bacho Akhalaia - 4 years in addition to the time he has already spent in jail. The general secretary of the United National Movement, former prime minister and longtime interior minister, Vano Merabishvili, remains in custody. He is charged with very serious crimes, and if they are confirmed, he will not be released any time soon. The criminal case on charges of embezzlement against the current Mayor of Tbilisi Gigi has yet to be closed. Prosecutor-General Archil Kbilashvili does not rule out that the ex-President Mikheil Saakashvili may also be questioned on several cases. All this indicates that the persistent advice of Western friends and partners of Georgia not to use the weapon of selective justice against political opponents is being ignored. In this scenario, one can expect that the opposition represented by the UNM is quite able to consolidate and use the inevitable disappointment of the population against the new government in order to deploy massive pressure on it with demands for resignations and early elections.

Meanwhile, the question of the future head of the government of Georgia remains open as the current leader of the ruling Georgian Dream bloc and Prime Minister Bidzina Ivanishvili confirmed that he will leave his post a week after the inauguration of the newly-elected president. If we take into account that under the Constitution, the centre of power is moving from the president exactly to the head of government, the question of who will head it is even more important than the presidential election. Ivanishvili still speaks vaguely on this account: "One of the current ministers will be prime minister, a very decent person and a great professional."

Observers in Georgia are considering several candidates for the post. One of them is the 50-year-old Minister of Health and Social Welfare David Sergeyenko, who was able to carry out successful reforms in the sphere over the last year. However, he is not experienced in foreign policy at all. The current Interior Minister Irakli Garibashvili is also named as a possible successor to Ivanishvili as prime minister. Ivanishvili himself says that remaining the leader of the Georgian Dream political bloc, he is not giving up responsibility for his election promises. According to Ivanishvili, without holding official government positions, he will be able to make more use of his multi-billion fortune for co-financing large-scale projects in Georgia with foreign investors and will be able to organize a civil society to monitor the activities of the government. Some observers already speculate that Ivanishvili wants to become a kind of Georgian Deng Xiaoping.

 No matter who heads the government of Georgia and who builds relationships within the ruling bloc and the opposition, the most important thing for Azerbaijan is the continuity of the commitments previously adopted by the Georgian government and a sustained line to strengthen the strategic partnership and good neighbourliness between the two countries. After all, apart from the fact that Baku is implementing large-scale energy, communications and other investment projects in Georgia, it is home to several hundred thousands of Azerbaijanis to whose well-being and safety we are not indifferent. Understanding the importance of the Azerbaijani-Georgian strategic partnership was typical for all successive government teams in Tbilisi and Baku for the entire period of independent statehood. Therefore, there is a high degree of certainty that this line will be continued further.