THE DIFFICULT ROAD FROM DAMASCUS TO GENEVA

The preparations for a new international conference to resolve the Syrian conflict are accompanied by significant difficulties. And they are more associated with contradictions in the positions of not only foreign players but also of the Syrian parties themselves. In any case, the opposition makes its participation in Geneva-2 conditional on demands, which most observers believe virtually undermine the very possibility of convening a peace conference.

Bloody background 

As the negotiations on the convening of the conference are under way, the war in Syria continues - the number of victims has reached, according to various estimates, from 100,000 to 120,000 people. Judging by the incoming reports, the government forces are developing an offensive in the south and southeast of Aleppo - the second largest city of Syria. In addition, the mountain plateau between Sadad and Mahin in the west of the country has already been cleared of armed opposition groups. This is where the Liwa'a al-Ghuraba'a group, which Damascus considers a terrorist organization, has been defeated. Meanwhile, on the outskirts of the capital, in East Huta, more than 400 rebels from the Dir'a al-Asima brigade turned themselves in to the authorities. They agreed to lay down their arms and take advantage of the amnesty declared by President Bashar al-Assad.

At the same time, Jabhat al-Nusra - one of the most radical opposition groups close to the Al-Qaeda international terrorist network, claimed responsibility for a major terrorist attack in the village of Tabtiya inhabited mainly by Alawites. A car bomb at a local school killed six people and wounded forty. Al-Nusra militants also attacked the village of Qurna in southwestern Syria populated by Druze...

These and other facts show that the opposition forces, whose ranks, according to news agencies, are constantly replenished by foreign mercenaries, are increasingly making efforts to give the internal Syrian conflict an interfaith nature. Against such a bloody background, interested international forces are preparing for the Second Geneva Conference.

Another setback 

The organizers of the conference - the US, Russia and the United Nations - discussed the preparations for Geneva-2 at a special meeting. This was the third meeting in this format, which, unfortunately, again failed like the previous two. The main reason for delaying the convening of the conference is that the diverse Syrian opposition, first, cannot agree on a unified delegation, and second, insists on defining specific terms for Bashar al-Assad's departure from the post of president. However, there is one more catch of international nature. The Syrian rebels will refuse to participate in the conference if it is attended by a delegation from Iran - an ally of the Syrian regime. The United States is also reluctant to see Iran among participants in Geneva-2. Russia holds an opposite view, referring to the important role of Iran in regional policy and its influence on the Syrian situation.

Meanwhile, it is unacceptable to the peace process that 19 of the Islamist groups operating in Syria have rejected the invitation of Russia and the United States to take part in the peace talks due to the fact that Geneva-2 does not meet their demands. The West is becoming increasingly aware of the threats from the extreme groups. A number of the world's media have promulgated the content of a private report by analysts of European intelligence services, which shows that the "threat to Europe comes not so much from the regime of Bashar al-Assad as from those who are fighting him". INTCEN (Intelligence Analysis Centre) came to the conclusion that "they all represent a direct threat to Europe in terms of their return from the war to Europe".

USA vs. Saudi Arabia 

Despite all the constraining circumstances, the international organizers of Geneva-2 are still not losing hope that the conference will be held before the end of the year. The position of the United States, which planned to launch a military campaign against Syria recently, is particularly noteworthy in this respect. Secretary of State John Kerry reiterated that the Syrian crisis "can only be resolved through negotiations without the use of force". He acknowledged that the US "has neither the authority nor the desire to interfere" in the civil war in the Arab country. Regarding the prospects of Geneva-2, Kerry noted the feasibility of establishing in Syria a temporary, transitional authority, which includes representatives of the current government and opposition. Thus, although Washington regards the Assad regime as illegitimate, based on the actual alignment of forces, it is in favour of a peace settlement that completely contradicts the approach of the radical Syrian opposition that demands immediate power change in the country.

By the way, such an extreme approach continues to be supported by a number of Arab countries, especially Saudi Arabia, which categorically reject the possibility of Assad's participation in the "transition process". In response, Damascus accuses Riyadh, saying that its "policy of supporting terrorism is a shame to the Arab nation and Islam".

Meanwhile, a successful component of the Syrian settlement is the destruction of chemical weapons in Syria. Disposal of the equipment for the production of chemical weapons in the country was completed by the deadline - 1 November. Now the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) is to approve a plan of action for the second phase of Syrian chemical weapons elimination, during which it is planned to destroy 1.3 tons of toxic substances. During the hearings at the UN Security Council, the head of the international mission to eliminate Syrian chemical weapons, Sigrid Kaag, commended the cooperation of Damascus officials and acknowledged problems with the access of international experts to areas controlled by the opposition.

Israeli trace? 

When considering the current situation in and around Syria, it is certainly necessary to address air strikes on the Syrian air defence base in Latakia. The attack, according to the American administration, was made by the Israeli Air Force. According to the White House, the target of the strike was a missile arsenal, which Israel thought could be handed over to the Lebanese movement Hezbollah. Washington's revelation turned out quite unexpected, because Tel Aviv decisively rejected such accusations before. Israel is indignant, saying that the incident is "incomprehensible and inconceivable" in the US-Israel alliance. The expert community is in search of motives that prompted the United States to "surrender" its closest ally. Western analysts believe that by framing Israel, the Obama administration is trying to force the Syrian regime to take adequate action with all the presumed consequences for Syria itself. 

Meanwhile, media reports on the subject mention Turkey too. A number of the world's media claim that it was the Turkish intelligence service that helped Israel to coordinate air strikes against the air defence base in Latakia. However, this information was categorically denied by Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu, who stressed that "Turkey did not help Israel in its actions against any Muslim country and would never do that". In any case, the insinuations of Western policy in Turkish-Syrian and Turkish-Israeli relations, as well as the intricacies of Ankara's Middle East policy are an entirely different topic of conversation.