UKRAINE IN CRISIS

The Ukrainian leadership's decision to defer the signing of an association agreement with the EU and a simultaneous improvement in relations with Russia caused a wave of protests in Ukrainian society. Protests have continued for a fortnight in a number of towns and cities, the biggest being in Independence Square in Kiev. Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych is trying to find a way out of the political crisis, a process that has been joined by high-ranking representatives of the EU and the US. The head of the "Penta" Centre for Applied Political Studies, Volodymyr Fesenko, has shared with R+ his view of the situation in Ukraine and a possible solution to the events.

- How would you define what is happening in Kiev?

- What has happened in Kiev these past two weeks is a deep political crisis. It all started when Ukraine refused to sign an association agreement with the European Union. Then a section of the Ukrainian people took to the streets in Kiev in protest. However, the real trouble began on 30 November when special police units brutally dispersed demonstrators who were supporting European integration. Pictures of protesters being beaten up were included in television news bulletins, the Internet and the other media. On 1 December, several hundred people took part in a protest rally in Kiev's central Independence Square, the Maidan and started shouting slogans demanding the government's resignation, new elections, and so on. That was when the political crisis began in Ukraine. So far there have been no direct negotiations between the protesters and the government, although public political consultations on a way out of the crisis between three former presidents and the incumbent president - Kravchuk, Kuchma, Yushchenko and Yanukovych - have begun. Kravchuk initiated a national "Round Table" meeting, but the opposition failed to attend. Representatives of the US and the EU - Victoria Nuland and Catherine Ashton - arrived in Ukraine, met the president and are trying to carry out a mission of mediation between the Maidan and the government. The situation in Kiev remains very tense and the reasons for the crisis have not been overcome.

- According to television reports, the opponents of European integration have also taken to the streets of Kiev. Is there not a threat of civilian clashes?

- As an alternative to the Maidan, activists and supporters of the Ukrainian Party of Regions have taken to the streets in what is a somewhat different situation. At first the Party of Regions supported the idea of European integration, but at the last moment it postponed the signing of an association agreement. Incidentally, the Ukrainian authorities have not entirely rejected the idea of associate partnership with the EU. The Party of Regions is trying to strike some kind of balance between retaining good relations with the Russian Federation and European integration. Therefore, the rally of supporters of the Party of Regions should not be regarded as an action by the opponents of European integration. It is against Yanukovych's opponents.

- Does the opposition have a single leader?

- Unlike the situation in 2004 the Ukrainian opposition does not have a single leader. There are three heads of parliamentary opposition factions: Vitaliy Klichko (the UDAR [Ukrainian Democratic Alliance for Reform] party), Arseny Yatsenyuk (the Batkyvshchina [Fatherland] bloc) and Oleh Tyahnybok (the Svoboda [Freedom] party). From time to time they formulate a common position. At the same time, they are potential opponents of one another at the presidential elections in a year's time. According to public opinion polls, only 4 per cent are the supporters of political forces. The remaining protesters are mainly people with higher education and the middle class who are in favour of European integration. Incidentally, there are a number of opponents of the incumbent authorities among the Ukrainian middle class.

- What might the consequences be if the government decides to disperse the demonstrators and arrest the organizers?

- You have to bear in mind that people came to the rallies, which numbered hundreds of thousands, only after force was used. The brutal dispersal of the students' rally on 30 November caused huge anger in the country. And as a result hundreds of thousands took to the streets in Kiev. So the use of force will not help solve the crisis but will cause a chain reaction of violence, and possibly a civil confrontation. The authorities are adopting an effective tactic of "soft cleansing". They are not dispersing the protesters but squeezing them out. That was the method used to drive the protesters away from the area where the president's administration, the cabinet of ministers and parliament are located. By using minimum force, there were no casualties. At the same time, the president is initiating negotiations. One gets the impression that the authorities are avoiding extreme, aggressive actions which could cause public disquiet and provoke a crisis in relations with western partners.

However, the attempt on 10 December to rid the building of the Kiev municipal administration of protesters by force led to even more tension. They failed to unblock the municipal administration and the protesters repulsed the attack by Berkut [riot police]. The outcome was more barricades, relations with European partners deteriorated, there was a new wave of anger in society and crowds of people poured into the Maidan and neighbouring streets. The crisis deepened.

- How will events pan out if the opposition doesn't enter into negotiations and continues to insist on the government's resignation?

- There could be various options. Ukrainian politics is unpredictable. Two months ago it was hard to imagine that so many people would go to the Maidan over European integration and the dispersal of a rally. And the situation is changing rapidly. On the one hand, the opposition is gathering more and more people into the square, and on the other the government is trying to take the initiative. If the opposition manages to organize mass protests the ruling elite will have to come to a compromise. Otherwise, the authorities will use the new tactic to block the Maidan step by step and try to fully re-establish control over the city centre. Then as the New Year approaches the initiative will switch over to the authorities.

Much depends on whether the EU representatives will be able to carry out their mission to bring the sides together. At the moment neither the opposition nor the authorities are showing flexibility or making any mutual concessions. The best compromise would be the release of the Maidan protesters who were arrested and to punish those guilty of using excessive force in dispersing the demonstration on 30 November, as well as the provocateurs among the protesters.

- Why isn't the opposition interested in negotiations? Is it because of Yuliya Tymoshenko's appeal?

- Tymoshenko is completely against any negotiations with the Yanukovych administration. And the leaders of the Maidan are not interested in negotiations because the authorities have failed to fulfil preliminary conditions. The crisis has now gone too far, neither side wants to listen to the other and they are trying to impose their own conditions. Shuttle diplomacy by western politicians might help to get negotiations going.

- How strong is the likelihood of Ukraine joining the Customs Union?

- In any event, this question will be discussed. It will be raised nearer to the presidential elections. According to the latest public opinion polls, half the population supports the protest action in the Maidan. Just under a half are against the Maidan. It's the same correlation of forces in favour of European integration, and slightly less for joining the Customs Union. The relations between these forces are irreconcilable. Any public decision on joining the CU could cause even greater political upheavals. Just like Armenia: it intended to sign an associate agreement with the EU and suddenly joined the Customs Union - this could cause a deep political collapse in Ukraine.

Holding a referendum on this question is also fraught with difficulties. First of all, the general feeling among local and western politicians is that more work needs to be done on the law on a referendum. On the other hand, it is very likely that in a referendum the votes "for" and "against" will be split almost in half. That is why we need an option that suits the whole of the Ukrainian people, the best option for partnership with both the EU and the CU.