"MUCH DEPENDS ON RUSSIA"

The Eastern Partnership summit in Vilnius exposed differences between the EU and the Russian-initiated Customs Union. Having initialled the Association Agreement with the EU, Ukraine at the last moment refused to sign it. Even earlier Armenia, which also rejected association, expressed its adherence to the CU. The signing of the agreement on a simplification of the visa regime between the EU and Azerbaijan and the initialling of Association Agreements with Georgia and Moldova literally saved the Vilnius summit from collapse. In this situation calls are being heard to make the differences between the six post-Soviet countries, covered by Eastern Partnership, conditional on the significance of the states that have a vested interest in European integration and the efforts being made. The unresolved conflicts in the member-countries of the programme, including the Nagornyy Karabakh conflict, also seriously affect this process. The Honorary President of the Belgian Senate Anne-Marie Lizin shared with R+ her opinion of the EU's possible contribution in encouraging the European integration of the Eastern Partnership countries, as well as their role in solving conflicts.

- Azerbaijan is in the front line in terms of rate of economic development and is considered to be one of the most dynamically developed economies in the world. But how is this development perceived from Europe?

- I have never come across such rapid and balanced development in the world. If we take into account the situation in South Caucasus, we are talking about a successful effort from 1994 till now, which is really exceptional. Here one should bear in mind that despite the situation that all the Caucasian economies found themselves in during the 1990s, the country was able to increase production, bring energy resources to world markets and reap dividends. You will find very few governments in the world able to do this. In addition to this, Azerbaijan is also very cleverly analyzing its future development and drawing up new prospective sectors, such as agriculture and tourism.

- Despite the fact that the vast majority of the Azerbaijani population is Muslim and the country adheres to Islamic values, European integration is a foreign political priority for Baku. What can you say about the future of these relations?

 - These relations have a reliable and favourable future. I have just got back from Kiev where I was teaching at the university. The political situation there is frustrating the European hopes of the Ukrainians. Azerbaijan does not have this doubtful situation and the country is able to choose Europe and at the same time continue to develop good connections with Russia. It means clever leaders at the head of the country, and a different historical background, of course, than the Ukrainian one. Azerbaijan has to overcome some criticism from Europe, but it will be easy to do this with the help of a link between Europe and the Caucasus, and especially bearing in mind the energy factor of the Caspian Sea.

- Why, then, is Brussels not being active enough in questions concerning the region which, according to assurances by EU representatives, is entering, with its resources and location, the zone of the EU's European strategic interests?

- Europe is shy on the question of Caucasus. During the Balkan wars at the beginning of the 1990s, Europe was not interested in what was happening in Azerbaijan. Europe "rediscovered" the Caucasus in around 2000, and this attention grew even stronger in 2006 when Eastern Partnership appeared. It took the Europeans three years to realize that they had no global strategy in relation to the three countries of the South Caucasus and also to realize the need to work bilaterally with each other for historical reasons. Even that cannot be considered sufficient. Then, after all these upheavals, an instrument of financial assistance was created. It is true that the scale of this financial instrument seems symbolic if you compare it with Azerbaijan's budget now. So it is not for financial reasons that collaboration will increase, but certain values and ideas of freedom. I do hope that in the future Baku will, if one may put it that way, increase its presence in Brussels so as to explain the realities of what is happening in the country and speak about the freedom of life, the rights of women in this very specific, free Muslim country and the freedom of religions. Europe has to develop a more positive view of this country. Only two of the six participants in the Eastern Partnership programme - Georgia and Moldova - initialed the association agreements with the EU at the recent summit in Vilnius. Europe cannot afford such a failure and it must turn its sights on the best economy in the South Caucasus by sending positive signals to Baku.

- In speaking about European policy in the South Caucasus, one must, first and foremost, note the EU's rather passive attitude in relation to the problem of Nagornyy Karabakh. Is this because Brussels feels that its role as a mediator is irrelevant?

- My personal conviction is that here much depends on Russia, which has recently taken a number of steps in connection with Armenia. By that I mean the situation with the Customs Union and Russia's increasing military presence in this country. Any future peace agreement has to be discussed at the right place with good arguments being put at the negotiations. And in the meantime, all possibilities have to be used to protect the process and avoid further casualties.

- What role might international organizations like the European Parliament (if we are talking specifically about Europe) and its resolutions on the conflict play in the settlement process?

- Only an international body involving Russia may be effective in finding a solution to this problem. The EU may be useful in this sense only for reaffirming Azerbaijan's position in accordance with international law, especially now that Armenia has clearly shown that it is choosing Russia and sidelining Europe. The OSCE is still a good platform, but the Minsk Group will never show serious political will. I believe that Mr Kerry (US State Secretary - Ed.), after his success in regard to Iran's nuclear programme, could be the best person to talk to Mr Lavrov (Russian Foreign Minister - Ed.) in new discussions on a formula for Nagornyy Karabakh. Europe will never be able to get any success out of Armenia.