A TEST OF HISTORY

Turkey is in a state of war. Although no-one has been killed and the guns are silent it matches a real one in its severity, and a "war" is precisely what many analysts are calling the latest processes in Turkey's domestic politics. How else can one describe these processes if supporters of the prime minister go to meet him wrapped in shrouds, thereby demonstrating their willingness to die for their idol? And surely the losses in the Turkish economy, which in the two weeks since the start of the hot phase of this confrontation alone have been over 100bn dollars, prove the extent of the crisis?

The "hot phase of the war" began on 17 December when dozens of high-ranking officials and members of their families were arrested by the Turkish law-enforcement authorities following months of exhaustive investigations kept secret from the leadership to avoid a leakage of information about the course of the inquiry into the country's government. Those arrested are suspected of corruption and discreditable practices during state purchases and of exceeding their authority. Among them are the sons of the now former ministers of the interior, the economy and environment and urban planning. Even the prime minister's son was summoned to the prosecutor's office to give evidence. He is incriminated in a number of cases, including charges of links with al-Qa'eda. Among other suspects are dozens of businessmen and bankers, as well as high-ranking officials. One of the country's leading banks - Halk Bankasi - also figures in the case.

Prime Minister Erdogan's reaction to all this was very predictable. He sacked all the top police officers who were in charge or were simply involved in this affair. Middle-ranking officers were transferred en masse to other parts of the country. Some reports say the "purge" affected over 500 police officers. Ignoring reports of the discovery of millions in cash in shoe boxes in the homes of ministers (since then shoe boxes have become a symbol of the anti-corruption movement in Turkey), Erdogan said the anti-corruption campaign run from outside was a provocation aimed at the government.

Erdogan has also named his main enemy who has a vested interest in destabilizing the situation in the country. He is Fethullah Gulen, the founder and leader of the Hizmet public movement, an Islamic preacher and writer, who has been living in the US since 1999. His movement is very popular and has great influence in Turkey. Gulen surprised even his own associates by his tough reaction. In a video posted on a website close to him, Gulen openly curses all those "who don't see the thief but go after those trying to catch the thief". At a rally in Samsun, Erdogan responded by accusing Gulen's supporters of colluding with external forces, of treachery and ingratitude.

All this led to a major conflict where the sides are using and will probably continue to use all possible methods against one another because, in all probability, the bridges between the former allies have already been burned. But were these two forces ever allies? Perhaps tactical allies…

Former allies

At the end of 2002, the Party of Justice and Development, headed by Recep Tayyip Erdogan, which had earlier been created on the basis of conservative religious circles, came to power not without the help of Gulen and his associates. Gulen himself had been living in the American state of Pennsylvania since 1999. According to the official version, he went there for treatment, but that same year he was accused of trying to overthrow the secular form of government in Turkey. It is worth pointing out that the grounds for the charges were a video in which Gulen was seen advising his associates to infiltrate the law-enforcement and judicial bodies and find posts there. The accused was acquitted in 2007.

When Erdogan's party first came to power Gulen's supporters and the country's leadership adopted a unified position. They had a common ally in the shape of the West and common rivals in the secular opposition and the generals. The latter believe that Erdogan's policy runs counter to the behests of Mustafa Kemal Ataturk, the founder of the secular Turkish state.

However, as the years passed, political opposition was weakened by one means or another. The leader of the opposition left-centrist party, Deniz Baykal, was compromised by videos and forced to resign. Meanwhile, the generals, who were unhappy at the creeping Islamization in the country, were dealt a number of shattering blows. In 2008, the Ergenekon trials, and two years later the Balyoz (Kuvalda) trial led to a purge in the senior ranks of the Turkish army. As well as two former chiefs of the general staff, senior army officers, socio-political figures and members of the intelligentsia found themselves behind bars. They were all accused of attempting a coup d'etat and creating terrorist organizations. The defendants themselves denied all the charges and described their arrests as politically motivated and the result of their opposition to the ruling party. At the same time, many Turkish analysts claimed that Gulen helped neutralize common enemies via his supporters in the law-enforcement and judicial bodies.

The enemy had been vanquished and, it would seem, the participants in the "coalition" had strengthened their positions, but, as the poet said: "But victory was their misfortune, and they found only emptiness." 

Divorce, Turkish style

The first conflict between the allies occurred in the summer of 2010. After the famous incident off the coast of Gaza, when Israeli commandos attacked a humanitarian "peace flotilla" and nine Turks were killed, Gulen condemned those who organized the convoy of ships. He said that prior permission should have been sought from Israel, whereas the ruling party declared the dead martyrs and virtually threatened war on Israel.

The "Israeli trace" was also evident in another scandal between the supporters of Gulen and Erdogan. A few months ago details of talks between the head of the Turkish special service MIT, Hakan Fidan, and the chief of Israeli intelligence were published in the media close to Gulen. It was revealed that Fidan, who is believed to be one of the prime minister's most loyal people, had passed on to his Israeli counterparts a list of Israeli and American agents in Turkey who were working against Tehran. Erdogan openly defended his prot?g?, thereby acknowledging the legitimacy of the actions of the head of MIT.

The conflict between the supporters of the prime minister and Gulen became particularly strained after the authorities announced their intention to shut down study courses to universities which were mostly linked with Gulen's movement. In the opinion of Turkish experts, by acting in this way Erdogan was making no secret of his intention to stand at this summer's presidential elections and was trying to deal a crushing blow to Gulen's supporters. It was these courses which have been a kind of trampoline for young supporters of Gulen and an inviting base for new recruits.

Gulen's supporters simply couldn't allow themselves to surrender their positions so easily and so quickly. The answer came on 17 December. According to the Turkish media, they have their own candidate for the elections - the incumbent president Abdullah Gul, who makes no secret of his leanings towards Gulen. It follows from these claims that virtually the whole presidential army is behind Gulen's supporters. But there is one other powerful force which, some reports say, supports, but others say is using the Gulen organization against the authorities - and that is the West. 

External factors

As already mentioned, immediately after 17 December, besides Gulen's movement, Erdogan included among the main instigators of the corruption scandal "dark external forces" in the shape of the international financial lobby, forces "which are against the development of the Turkish Republic". Things reached the point where the prime minister described the US ambassador to Ankara, Francis Ricciardone, as a "provocateur" and threatened to extradite him from the country. So why did the western forces, once close to Erdogan, suddenly find themselves in the doghouse?

It will be remembered that at the outset of his rule the prime minister was a very honoured guest in western countries, and the Turkish model of liberal Islam was supposed to serve as an example for the Muslim East. However, the love of western leaders for their Turkish counterpart gradually evaporated. The zigzags in Turkish foreign policy are the subject of separate debate. However, it should be pointed out briefly that thanks to a reckless foreign political course in the past 11 years Turkey has succeeded in presenting itself first as the "conqueror of Europe", and following the disappointment of the process of EU integration, as "leader of the East" (that was how the dependent media labelled the country), was first an ally and then the enemy of Gaddafi, the closest friend and eventually avowed enemy of the Syrian leadership, the main enemy of Israeli and the new Egyptian leadership, and so on. After the "Syrian disappointment", when the US decided not to bring in the troops against official Damascus, Erdogan more than once expressed the desire to join the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. The West was also annoyed by the attempts of the Turkish leadership, as a member of NATO, to acquire the Chinese ABM systems coupled with the aforementioned scandal over the head of the Turkish intelligence. It turned out that while failing to acquire new allies, Turkey lost its old ones. All this could not fail to affect relations between the Turkish leaders and the West which was expecting a more predictable foreign policy from Ankara. It is not hard to guess on whose side the West is in the stand-off between Gulen and Erdogan.

The disposition of forces and likely scenarios

The forces on the side of Gulen are - the presidential administration, the Constitutional Court, the Supreme Court of judges and prosecutors, supporters in the law-enforcement bodies and external support in the form of opponents of the present leadership.

Erdogan's forces are the government, a parliamentary majority and the intelligence services.

In all probability, for the time being the conflict will be resolved by neutral forces who have still not precisely defined their choice of sides. And this will be political opposition in the shape of the Republican People's Party and the Nationalist Movement Party, the army, the Kemalists and the Kurdish and Alawite minority. Both sides are trying to draw the aforementioned forces over to their side. Whereas Gulen's supporters are trying to reach agreement with the political opposition, the recent statements by government officials about "permitting serious infringements in the Ergenekon and Balyoz trials" show that the ruling party intends to win the sympathy of the military.

The first results of the conflict will be clear on 31 March when the results of the municipal elections are announced. If he loses votes in the country's three major cities (Istanbul, Ankara and Izmir) Erdogan's chances of winning the race for president will, of course, be reduced. According to unofficial reports, Gulen's supporters are prepared to support Mustafa Sarigul, the RPP's candidate for the post of mayor of Istanbul. In general, some analysts are predicting a bright political future for Sarigul because he is a figure of compromise for the various forces and has a relatively clean past.

But there is another option, too: to move away from the ruling party and create a more liberal political force which will conduct a balanced policy.

Be that as it may, one thing is clear today: 2014 will be an historic year for Turkey. This year will decide the fate of the country with a political history that is rich in coups, conspiracies, riots and intrigues.