WIND OF CHANGE

The end of 2013 saw some activity in the process of negotiations towards a settlement of the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict over Nagornyy Karabakh. The meeting in Vienna on 19 November between the Azerbaijani and Armenian presidents, the first for two years, instilled hope for if not an early peace, then at least a resumption of talks, among those who had all but given up. The statements by the two sides contained notes of optimism which were certainly not typical of assessments of the negotiations process in recent years. Moreover, shortly after the meeting of the presidents, the Armenian and Azerbaijani foreign ministers began discussions in Kiev of specific questions of a settlement. "We raised specific questions for the first time," Mammadyarov said, stressing that until then the sides had only had general discussions on the overall situation.

"We were talking about seven regions (around Nagornyy Karabakh - Huseynzada's note) - at first five, and then Kalbacar and Lacin. We later discussed the subject of the rebuilding of roads and communications. The main thing as far as we were concerned was to go through the questions in which we had made no progress. I can't divulge on what issues we reached agreement. Both we and the Armenians expressed our positions and we shall brief our presidents about them," the Azerbaijani foreign minister pointed out.

This turn of events gave rise to much intrigue in anticipation of the possible further development of events. And, by all accounts, 2014 will see some sort of clarity in the situation around the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict. This assessment was also expressed at the last session of the Azerbaijani cabinet of ministers chaired by President Ilham Aliyev.

A considerable part of the president's speech was devoted to the subject of Karabakh. Aliyev expressed regret that no progress had been made in resolving the conflict, which is the main issue of Azerbaijan's foreign policy. The reason remains the same: the Armenians have stuck to their favourite tactic of dragging out the negotiations process under various pretexts.

At the same time, the head of state reaffirmed that at the end of the year a certain animation was evident. "We will see: if Armenia demonstrates a constructive position in a settlement to the question, then it will be possible to come to an agreement within a short time. There have been some hopes and some optimistic moments, but we shall be studying this in 2014. In any event, Armenia's true intention will be fully apparent in 2014," the head of state noted.

He said that if realistic approaches prevail in Armenia, then progress may be achieved in a short time in the conflict in a solution to which there have been no particular grounds for optimism recently. Aliyev straightaway made it clear that by a "realistic approach" he meant Armenia's recognition of the real correlation of forces in the region, which is certainly not in Armenia's favour in any respects. Azerbaijan's state budget is ten times higher than Armenia's. In terms of Gross Domestic Product Azerbaijan's is eight times that of Armenia and six times more in size of population. 

The frankly catastrophic situation in Armenia in the demographic sphere is deepening the gulf in development between the two countries and it was not without reason that Aliyev has mentioned this aspect in recent speeches. The scale of the flight of the population from Armenia is truly incredible, and it is not opposition sources but official statistics that are admitting this fact. According to their data, Armenia's population was reduced by 190,000 from 2001 to 2011. In 2013 the picture was more depressing: the adverse balance was 108,000. According to the final census figures, there are 1.6 million women in Armenia, which is 52 per cent, and over 1.4 million men.

On top of all that Azerbaijan continues to strengthen its position at the talks by building up its military potential. During the government session Aliyev openly expressed disagreement with those external circles who believe there is no alternative to a peaceful way towards solving the Karabakh problem. Azerbaijan has never renounced the idea of liberating by force its lands which were occupied by the same non-peaceful means, especially as the UN Charter invests Azerbaijan with this right. It is just that Baku has always considered this step to be an extreme measure should the negotiations collapse. However, as the saying goes, "if you want peace, prepare for war", and Azerbaijan continues to consistently follow this principle. "I should point out that our military potential, the reforms we are carrying out in the army, the new principles and new approaches linked with military tactics are contributing to the emergence of a completely new situation," Aliyev said, adding that raising the fighting capabilities of the Azerbaijani army will only have a positive impact on the negotiations process.

And indeed, in recent years the correlation of forces has very seriously altered in favour of Azerbaijan. It would seem that it is only in Armenia where they cannot see or stubbornly do not wish to see this. It was clearly to them that Aliyev, during the same meeting, was giving a number of instructions, generally rather humiliating for the leaders of any country that considers itself to be sovereign and independent. "If the Armenian leadership approaches this question seriously and gives preference to the interests of the Armenian state, then it will clearly be aware that it has neither the possibility nor the potential to compete with Azerbaijan after this," Aliyev said, as if trying to spell out to the lackadaisical Armenian leaders the harsh facts of the lack of comparability between the potential of Azerbaijan and Armenia.

And shortly after this the Azerbaijani president sent another sobering message to the Armenian leaders: "I don't believe that relying solely on foreign aid does any country much credit. Every country should always strive to protect its independence and its choice and think about the future of its state."

In summing up the "Karabakh" part of his speech at the cabinet session, the Azerbaijani leader expressed the hope that there would be positive changes in the negotiations process.

It is now up to Armenia. This country, which is in the deepest socio-economic and political crisis, has driven itself into an even more unenviable situation than the one Azerbaijan was in 20 years ago with its army of refugees and a fifth of its territory occupied. Despite all these problems, Azerbaijan has been able to preserve its independence and prove its solvency as a sovereign state, whereas Armenia today has absolutely nothing to boast about apart from the very dubious status of a conqueror-country. The clumsy and chaotic steps taken by the Armenian leaders last year in an attempt to recover from the situation are leading to even worse consequences. The obscure policy with regard to integration with the European Union, their submissive entry into a Customs Union forced on them by Russia and other similar blunders have merely strengthened the view that Armenia is not a truly independent country capable of  making its own decisions without prompting from above. And this view continues to be held by the Armenian public itself. A monitoring of opinions on the Internet shows that as time goes by ordinary Armenians, worn out by the crisis, are listening with ever more interest to arguments addressed to Armenia by Azerbaijan to shift from occupation to cooperation and prosperity. Fairy tales about a "great Armenia" are poorly digested on an empty stomach and the time has come when the Armenian authorities will have to consider public opinion. It is not by chance that the demographic problem today has been recognized by the country as one of the most dangerous threats to national security. The authorities can only halt the exodus of people from Armenia by taking real steps to restore normal relations with their neighbours, and that means rebuilding the economy, the development of the whole region and, first and foremost, the prosperity of its citizens. This is what the Azerbaijani leaders have in mind when they urge Armenia to reject its utopian hopes in favour of real benefit.

Anyway, the first test of Armenia's good will in resolving the conflict in the coming year is due to happen this month. According to media reports, a meeting between the foreign ministers of Azerbaijan and Armenia - Elmar Mammadyarov and Edvard Nalbandyan- is due to be held towards the end of January. The co-chairs of the Minsk group of the OSCE for a settlement to the Karabakh conflict will soon be visiting Geneva to discuss the format of talks with the incumbent OSCE chairman, the Swiss Foreign Minister Didier Burkhalter.

The preparatory process of future talks is in full swing.

AT FIRST HAND

"If the Armenian leadership approaches this question seriously and gives preference to the interests of the Armenian state, then it will clearly be aware that it has neither the possibility nor the potential to compete with Azerbaijan after this."

Ilham Aliyev, President of Azerbaijan